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My BCS Bowl Projections. UPDATED: 11/19/2011

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Chris

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Current BCS rankings are used and Oklahoma State loss is figured in...

I think Oregon and LSU are the front runners for the title game if they win out but this obviously can change by the end of the day.

National Championship Game
#1 LSU 10-0
#4 Oregon 9-1


The Bowl games that lose their automatic qualifier gets first pick of the at large teams. Since the Sugar Bowl lost the SEC champion to the National Championship game and it's champion is ranked #1 in the nation, they get first selection. They will stay true to their SEC roots and take Alabama.

Sugar Bowl
#3 Alabama 9-1


Since the Rose Bowl lost their Champion to the National Championship Game, they will get the next selection for an at large team. They will choose Stanford. Rose Bowl automatically gets the Big Ten Champion, so we can fill that in.

Rose Bowl
#9 Stanford 9-1
#16 Nebraska 8-2


From here, the order to pick at large teams is Fiesta Bowl, Sugar Bowl and last, The Orange Bowl. We know the Fiesta Bowl will get the Big XII Champion (the winner of the Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State game). We'll say they take Houston as their at large but more on this at the end of this post.***

Fiesta Bowl
#2 Oklahoma State 10-1
#11 Houston 10-0


Next up is the Sugar Bowl. We already know (hypothetically) the SEC used it's first at large on Alabama. They will likely use their second at large for the loser of the Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State game.

Sugar Bowl
#3 Alabama 9-1
#5 Oklahoma 8-1


That leaves the Orange Bowl. We know they get the ACC Champion. Since they get the last pick of the at large teams and no one picked the Big East Champion, the Orange Bowl will be stuck with the Big East Champion yet again. I'm going to say Clemson wins the ACC based only on the fact that they already beat Virginia Tech in Blacksburg on Thursday night. Obviously, an injured Watkins could change that. We'll say unranked West Virginia will win the Big East, but really... who cares.

Orange Bowl
#7 Clemson 9-1
NR West Virginia 7-3


***Back to the Fiesta Bowl. Here's where it gets interesting. If Nebraska is available for an at large, you have to think the Fiesta Bowl would love to put Nebraska up against Oklahoma or even Oklahoma State for an old Big XII matchup. This would force the Sugar Bowl to either select Houston or the Big East Champion. If the Big East Champion is West Virginia and they are a Top 20 9-3 team, I think the Sugar Bowl will pick them. Anyone else and I think they choose Houston. If Nebraska wins the Big Ten and goes to the Rose Bowl, I think the Fiesta Bowl would then go after a top 10, undefeated Houston team since they would likely travel pretty good and The Fiesta Bowl has shown plenty of times they have no problem taking the non-BCS teams. If Houston loses a game, they will not be in the top 12 of the BCS at the end of the year and will not get an automatic birth. But Boise State will and I would guess the Fiesta Bowl could choose Boise State. I could also see them choosing a two loss Arkansas or even a two loss Clemson team, if Virginia Tech won the ACC Championship Game. I don't see the Fiesta Bowl picking Virginia Tech, though. Again, this forces the Sugar Bowl to choose between the Big East Champion or the non-BCS automatic qualifier (Houston or Boise State).

Here's the rest of the Top 15.

#6 Arkansas 9-1 - hypothetically, will have two losses after playing LSU
#8 Virginia Tech 9-1 - hypothetically, will have two losses after ACCCG
#10 Boise State 8-1
#12 South Carolina 8-2
#13 Kansas State 8-2
#14 Georgia 8-2
#15 Michigan State 8-2
 
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DeacMan said:
I think Alabama is now in the driver's seat as long as LSU wins out. The pollsters won't like it, but the computers are going to say those are the two best teams.
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Alabama plays Georgia Southern and Auburn (receiving votes in the polls) and they are done for the year. Oregon plays #18 USC and Oregon State. Not only that, but they will have an extra win than Alabama when they play a 'currently receiving votes in all the polls' Arizona State team in the Pac 12 Championship Game.
 
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DeacMan said:
I think Alabama is now in the driver's seat as long as LSU wins out. The pollsters won't like it, but the computers are going to say those are the two best teams.
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The pollsters currently have Alabama above Oregon and Oklahoma. Are you saying that the pollsters might eventually have Oregon, let's say, jump Alabama, but that the computers will prevent that from happening? Because otherwise, if the pollsters don't like having Alabama has the top 1-loss (going into last night), then there was nothing to stop them from voting them lower.
 
Chris said:
Alabama plays Georgia Southern and Auburn (receiving votes in the polls) and they are done for the year. Oregon plays #18 USC and Oregon State. Not only that, but they will have an extra win than Alabama when they play a team currently receiving votes in all the polls Arizona State team in the Pac 12 Championship Game.
Click to expand...

I'm with you. Assuming everyone wins out and the human voters do the expected (move Alabama into OSU's #2 ranking), the real question to me is - will Oregon's improved computer ranking in the last three weeks be enough to jump Alabama's lead in the polls? Bama was 0.5 points ahead of Oregon in the computers this week.

I could definitely see a scenario where the pollsters do an 11th hour switch, sort of like they did in 2007, when LSU jumped from #7 to #2 in the final two BCS standings after beating a decent Tennessee team in the SECCG. If this happens, I'm guessing Oklahoma moves up, since voters who don't want to see an Alabama/LSU rematch may have a difficult time justifying an Oregon/LSU rematch.
 
#1 Clemson vs #2 Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game?

Not that far-fetched...

Oklahoma State already lost.
LSU loses to Ole Miss and/or Arkansas.
Arkansas loses to Miss State and/or LSU.
Alabama loses to Auburn.
Oklahoma loses one of the following: #22 Baylor, Iowa State or Oklahoma State.

Simple as that.
 
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DeacinBama said:
I'm with you. Assuming everyone wins out and the human voters do the expected (move Alabama into OSU's #2 ranking), the real question to me is - will Oregon's improved computer ranking in the last three weeks be enough to jump Alabama's lead in the polls? Bama was 0.5 points ahead of Oregon in the computers this week.

I could definitely see a scenario where the pollsters do an 11th hour switch, sort of like they did in 2007, when LSU jumped from #7 to #2 in the final two BCS standings after beating a decent Tennessee team in the SECCG. If this happens, I'm guessing Oklahoma moves up, since voters who don't want to see an Alabama/LSU rematch may have a difficult time justifying an Oregon/LSU rematch.
Click to expand...

I'm saying Oregon will not catch Alabama in the computer rankings.

And, quite frankly, they shouldn't if both teams win out.

We've seen the two best teams in the country. They played an OT game. It wasn't pretty, but it was obviously a very even game that could easily have gone either way.

We've seen LSU play Oregon. It wasn't an even game.

The pollsters won't vote for the rematch of Alabama LSU because the game was fairly recent. But they should if both can win out.

The worst scenario would be for LSU to lose a game. Then we'd have complete anarchy.
 
DeacMan said:
The pollsters won't vote for the rematch of Alabama LSU because the game was fairly recent. But they should if both can win out.
Click to expand...

So you think that the pollsters will jump Oregon ahead of Alabama?

Assuming everyone wins out, of course.
 
Just say no to another over hyped Alabama/LSU game. I suspect most fans don't want to see that borefest again. Oregon has now got it going on. Assuming they win out please let it be them.
 
I would much rather see a LSU/Oregon rematch than a LSU/Alabama rematch.
 
I think Oklahoma has the best chance to move up to #2. They play at ranked Baylor today and at OK-State. Those two wins are much higher quality than the next two games for Bama or Oregon.
 
WakeFanAdam said:
I think Oklahoma has the best chance to move up to #2. They play at ranked Baylor today and at OK-State. Those two wins are much higher quality than the next two games for Bama or Oregon.
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Yeah, but look who they lost to.
 
Announcers at Neb-Michigan said that if one of the teams wins out they have a great chance of getting a BCS berth. I see no way that happens. At large has to to to Oregon/Stanford, Alabama, Oklahoma/OK St. and Houston, right? Does OK St./OK loser still get an at large bid?
 
I think style points will matter. If OK blows out OK state, it's possible that they don't get an invite, if someone else steps it up. My question is who goes to the Sugar Bowl, if the SEC gets two teams in the BCS?
 
bmoneydeac said:
We'll be waiting anxiously.
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I sense sarcasm.
8pzha74.gif
 
just giving you a hard time. my hat goes off to whoever can get the BCS right this year.
 
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