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Wake opened -1

ChrisL68

ChrisL68

Riley Skinner
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and the line immediately moved to Vandy -1. I figured Wake would be a 4 to 5 point favorite and am shocked that the line moved in Vandy's direction.
 
ChrisL68 said:
and the line immediately moved to Vandy -1. I figured Wake would be a 4 to 5 point favorite and am shocked that the line moved in Vandy's direction.
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Why does that shock you? Vandy's only got one more loss and has played in a much tougher league with several close losses to pretty solid programs.

What I don't understand is why Wake was ever made the favorite.
 
Because the teams have had similar records before the last several years and Wake has thumped Vandy each year?

07: A 5-6 (2-6)Vandy team coming off a 1 point loss to a good Tennessee team gets thumped by 2 TDs by a 7-4 (5-3) Wake team in Nashville
08: a 6-5 (4-4) Vandy team gets thumped by 13 points by a 6-5 (4-4) Wake team in WS.
10: a 2-9 (1-7) Vandy team gets thumped by 21 points by a 2-9 (1-7) Wake team in Nashville.

So what leads one to believe that a 5-6 (2-6) Vandy team is going to come into WS and beat a 6-5 (5-3) Wake team when they haven't won on the road all season?
 
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They need to win and it's basically a meaningless game for wake. Thats how Vegas sees it and while I think we are a better team I understand the reason.
 
Whatever. Something else to motivate the team.
 
Maybe Vegas sees an opportunity to make more money off people betting against Wake. We've easily covered the last three weeks running
 
ChrisL68 said:
Because the teams have had similar records before the last several years and Wake has thumped Vandy each year?

07: A 5-6 (2-6)Vandy team coming off a 1 point loss to a good Tennessee team gets thumped by 2 TDs by a 7-4 (5-3) Wake team in Nashville
08: a 6-5 (4-4) Vandy team gets thumped by 13 points by a 6-5 (4-4) Wake team in WS.
10: a 2-9 (1-7) Vandy team gets thumped by 21 points by a 2-9 (1-7) Wake team in Nashville.

So what leads one to believe that a 5-6 (2-6) Vandy team is going to come into WS and beat a 6-5 (5-3) Wake team when they haven't won on the road all season?
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Well that has a lot to do with this year.
 
KanhojiAngre said:
Well that has a lot to do with this year.
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You could make the same argument in some of those other years.

Vandy is winless on the road, and Wake is 4-2 at home with losses to a top 10 VT and Notre Dame by a TD.
 
KanhojiAngre said:
Well that has a lot to do with this year.
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To be fair, a lot of people place bets based on past meetings, even in college games where those results have little to no relevancy on the game at hand. And getting people to bet is the point of the line, after all.
 
Complacent Deac said:
Or they could stare across the field at the Offensive Coordinator (Franklin) who put 62 on WFU at Maryland last year.

He was the OC and QB coach right? THAT should be plenty of motivation.
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ugh. Defense better be motivated.
 
The SEC East is pretty weak this year. Going 2-6 there is nothing to write home about.
 
ChrisL68 said:
The SEC East is pretty weak this year. Going 2-6 there is nothing to write home about.
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Agreed about the SEC East being weak, but Vandy has been competitive this year in games against Arkansas (missed chippy FG to get to OT), Tennessee (refs don't know rules in OT), Florida, and Georgia. Those are games that are blow outs historically.

On a neutral field, I would expect Vandy to be favored, but it's close enough that I would expect playing in Winston to be the difference. Accordingly, I'm a little surprised about the line moving the way it has.
 
KanhojiAngre said:
Well that has a lot to do with this year.
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I think the point that Chris is trying to make that being seasoned by tough SEC competition has never been a good predictor for Vandy in this series, and that's a valid reason to not weight it very heavily this year.
 
5-6 (2-6) Vandy team lost to Tennessee by 1 and Georgia by 3 and got thumped by Wake in 2007.

Florida is a shell on themselves this year. They let freakin Furman go into swamp and put up 32 points.

Tennesee was winless in the SEC going into the Vandy game.

Vandy team with better records in a tougher SEC in the last 5 years have lost to Wake in Nashville by 2 TDs.
 
DeacinBama said:
Linus: Smash and grab job, huh?

Rusty: Slightly more complicated than that.

Linus: Well, yeah.
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Actually, usually not. Occasionally Vegas will pick a side and not move a line despite heavy action, but I rather doubt that a Magnolia League matchup is going to be one of those times.

The line moved because a lot of money went down on Vandy. I wonder what it was originally at before it was posted? Sometimes the line will before even before it goes out to the world based on sharp action.
 
Vandy being favored anywhere on the road just shows that people bet without much real insight.
 
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