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Wake Forest (+6) at Maryland, O/U 144

Fuck Your Couch

Fuck Your Couch

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Opening line. Spread suggests we would be 2 point favorites at home.
 
Yeah the home court advantage is slightly less than 4 points this year. I think the teams were evenly matched without Howard or Len, but we'll see. I would take Wake +6 and the under 144.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Yeah the home court advantage is slightly less than 4 points this year. I think the teams were evenly matched without Howard or Len, but we'll see. I would take Wake +6 and the under 144.
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Would you really put money on it? +6 is a mighty slim margin to wager on w/ a coach that is 1-31 in major conference games on the road (/beating dead horse).

1-31. Of those 31 losses, 21 have been by double digits.

Last year, on the road (0-8) our margins of defeat were:

-21
-29
-35
-24
-21
-14
-14
-16

Now, I know Maryland isn't the cream of the crop, but still... I'm curious to see who would really take that bet at this point.
 
We lost 14 ACC games by double digits last year and opened up as only 6.5 dogs to VT in our first ACC game and won outright. Vegas isn't really concerned with what happened with a completely different team.
 
I'm going. I may put some on the Twerps to make it hurt less when we get blown out.
 
vtwhat etc said:
Would you really put money on it? +6 is a mighty slim margin to wager on w/ a coach that is 1-31 in major conference games on the road (/beating dead horse).

1-31. Of those 31 losses, 21 have been by double digits.

Last year, on the road (0-8) our margins of defeat were:

-21
-29
-35
-24
-21
-14
-14
-16

Now, I know Maryland isn't the cream of the crop, but still... I'm curious to see who would really take that bet at this point.
Click to expand...

I just meant if I had to pick I'd take Wake +6. I wouldn't bet on Wake games at all. The under 144 seems to me to be pretty safe though
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
We lost 14 ACC games by double digits last year and opened up as only 6.5 dogs to VT in our first ACC game and won outright. Vegas isn't really concerned with what happened with a completely different team.
Click to expand...

True; but since CU... Bz's teams have won 12 conference games. 11 of those have been at home.

I'm just saying that it would take a whole lot less cojones to bet a +6.5 spread at home than it would a +6 on the road. If wins are outliers; there are 10X more of those at home than on the road on Bz's resume.

ETA: you're right about a new team though & there is certainly a plethora of other things you could be basing your wagers on.
 
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I am sure the bookmakers know all of that as well. I wouldn't be surprised if we got blown out but if you really think this is a soft line you should bet it.
 
Also, if you plan on the emotional hedge you should play the moneyline even though it doesn't pay out as well. Nothing would be worse that a Wake cover and a Maryland win.
 
Looking more at Maryland's season so far (I didn't know a whole lot outside of their KP ranking & record); the spread certainly makes a bit more sense.

The following are Maryland's home wins:

(Opponents KenPom Rank) --- Margin of Victory
(171) 9
(218) 6
(299) 3
(237) 4
(313) 5
(190) 11
(301) 12
(187) 8


Going on that & still keeping my previous posts in mind; I think FYC is pretty dern smart w/ this thought:

Fuck Your Couch said:
Also, if you plan on the emotional hedge you should play the moneyline even though it doesn't pay out as well. Nothing would be worse that a Wake cover and a Maryland win.
Click to expand...
 
Between December 7th and January 3rd I think you would have had to consciously tried to play the easiest schedule possible to get any easier than Maryland has played. Their toughest game was against Cornell (187 on KenPom), every game was at home, and their biggest win was still only 12 points (over Samford, the 301st team in the country).

They were bad without Len and Howard
 
i was in vegas a few years ago when wake was playing fsu in football. the exchange with the teller in the sports book went like this:

me: five on wake forest to beat fsu.
her: five hundred on wake to beat fsu.
me: no no no. five dollars.
her: [look of disgust]
silence
me: [smile]
her: [still disgusted] five... dollars... on wake forest to beat fsu.

at least i won 10 bucks.
 
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