stonz
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 20, 2011
- Messages
- 2,161
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- 148
Last night's game made it pretty easy for me to decide what I should do with my 1000th post.
I was one of the very, very few people who liked the hire from the get-go. I know a couple of people that work in the NBA, and when I asked them about [Redacted], they raved. I thought an Xs and Os guy was just what we needed. I thought we needed to rebuild, and I thought [Redacted] did a really impressive job rebuilding Colorado.
Last season really did not push me towards wanting [Redacted] gone, believe it or not. I knew we were going to be absolutely terrible. KenPom projected us to win 12 games, with an eligible Woods, a healthy Chennault, and a usable Tabb. 8 wins did not surprise me. I didn't care at all about his lack of skill with the press (frankly I still think that's pretty irrelevant). I lost some faith in the hire, but I still felt like he deserved at least 3 years (which is how I feel about nearly any coach, as long as there isn't a serious off-the-court incident).
This situation, however, is one of those rare cases where its time to break that rule. We still don't have enough talent to win in the ACC; I don't think anyone could argue that point. Part of me still wants to see [Redacted] coach here next year, when he'll finally have an ACC caliber roster. But the issue for me is we do have the talent to compete in the ACC. I said before the year started that if we finished behind Boston College, there is no doubt that [Redacted] should be fired. We're currently projected to tie them at 4-12, but I think that is close enough. In terms of point differential in ACC play, we are clearly worse than them. I firmly believe that margin of victory (or defeat) is extremely important, and not getting blown out is a skill. We do not have that skill. The bottom-line is that even though [Redacted] has not had the opportunity to show us what he can do with a good hand, he has sufficiently shown us that he can't maximize the hand that he is dealt.
So, without further ado, I'm ready to join the movement: BuzzOut
I think we've all learned that hiring the right coach is more important than salvaging a recruiting class, but I think its worth noting that the whole 2012 class is signed (and is more committed to Wake than [Redacted] in my opinion) and we aren't anywhere close to getting any commits for 2013. Moreover, Battle is probably going to leave the program at the end of this year regardless. As a result, I think this spring is the ideal time to start from scratch with the coaching staff. Hopefully [Redacted] will resign.
To keep this post from being completely self-centered and repetitive, I'm going to put in some Win Probability graphs from KenPom to demonstrate how uncompetitive we've been. Pomeroy uses a color scale to illustrate the importance of each possession. It goes Blue-Purple-Red-Orange-Yellow. When the line is orange or yellow, the next possession is extremely important in deciding the outcome of the game. When it's blue, the next possession is essentially meaningless because the game is not in any doubt. Over the past two years, we have had an incredible amount of games where we've been "stuck in the blue." Note that 10 graphs follow, and each is against a different member of the ACC. In other words, in just 26 games, [Redacted] has managed to get embarrassingly blown out by every single program in the ACC, except Miami (I fully expect to add them to the list in about a week). Enjoy.
I was one of the very, very few people who liked the hire from the get-go. I know a couple of people that work in the NBA, and when I asked them about [Redacted], they raved. I thought an Xs and Os guy was just what we needed. I thought we needed to rebuild, and I thought [Redacted] did a really impressive job rebuilding Colorado.
Last season really did not push me towards wanting [Redacted] gone, believe it or not. I knew we were going to be absolutely terrible. KenPom projected us to win 12 games, with an eligible Woods, a healthy Chennault, and a usable Tabb. 8 wins did not surprise me. I didn't care at all about his lack of skill with the press (frankly I still think that's pretty irrelevant). I lost some faith in the hire, but I still felt like he deserved at least 3 years (which is how I feel about nearly any coach, as long as there isn't a serious off-the-court incident).
This situation, however, is one of those rare cases where its time to break that rule. We still don't have enough talent to win in the ACC; I don't think anyone could argue that point. Part of me still wants to see [Redacted] coach here next year, when he'll finally have an ACC caliber roster. But the issue for me is we do have the talent to compete in the ACC. I said before the year started that if we finished behind Boston College, there is no doubt that [Redacted] should be fired. We're currently projected to tie them at 4-12, but I think that is close enough. In terms of point differential in ACC play, we are clearly worse than them. I firmly believe that margin of victory (or defeat) is extremely important, and not getting blown out is a skill. We do not have that skill. The bottom-line is that even though [Redacted] has not had the opportunity to show us what he can do with a good hand, he has sufficiently shown us that he can't maximize the hand that he is dealt.
So, without further ado, I'm ready to join the movement: BuzzOut
I think we've all learned that hiring the right coach is more important than salvaging a recruiting class, but I think its worth noting that the whole 2012 class is signed (and is more committed to Wake than [Redacted] in my opinion) and we aren't anywhere close to getting any commits for 2013. Moreover, Battle is probably going to leave the program at the end of this year regardless. As a result, I think this spring is the ideal time to start from scratch with the coaching staff. Hopefully [Redacted] will resign.
To keep this post from being completely self-centered and repetitive, I'm going to put in some Win Probability graphs from KenPom to demonstrate how uncompetitive we've been. Pomeroy uses a color scale to illustrate the importance of each possession. It goes Blue-Purple-Red-Orange-Yellow. When the line is orange or yellow, the next possession is extremely important in deciding the outcome of the game. When it's blue, the next possession is essentially meaningless because the game is not in any doubt. Over the past two years, we have had an incredible amount of games where we've been "stuck in the blue." Note that 10 graphs follow, and each is against a different member of the ACC. In other words, in just 26 games, [Redacted] has managed to get embarrassingly blown out by every single program in the ACC, except Miami (I fully expect to add them to the list in about a week). Enjoy.
los:
