Next year's rotation

All the talk about this year's team and about whether we're stuck with Bz for another year is depressing, and with our next game about a full week away it's going to be a long week around here, so let's look towards something a little more hopeful, the introduction of our 6 man recruiting class to next year's roster. Let's come up with a consensus rotation (and I'm struggling with it), remembering that total minutes has to equal 200 (40*5) for when you offer corrections to my initial attempt. Don't get too caught up on the positions, as at times the 2/3 or 3/4 can be interchangable depending on personnell, but I'll lay it out that way just to get a sense of where we have openings on the floor before showing total minuts below. Here we go:

CMM - 23, Chennault - 12, Harris - 5
Harris - 27, Fischer - 13
Mckie - 25, Rountree - 10, Moto - 5
Mckie - 7, Moto - 12, Thomas - 15, Cavanaugh - 6
Thomas - 10, Derosiers - 25, Green - 4, Washington - 1;

Total:
Harris - 32
Mckie - 32
Thomas - 25
Derosiers - 25
CMM - 23
Moto - 17
Fischer - 13
Chennault - 12
Rountree - 10
Cavanugh - 6
Green - 4
Washington - 1
Fields - <1 if still here

And that group is supposed to get us to .500 in the ACC?

Wait, I'm sorry that's in 2013-2014

Like it or not, if he is still here, Tony will be playing more than 12 minutes a game next year.

we are gonna be so MONTE next year

My first reaction is I think you are predicting entirely too few minutes for Tony. He plays 29.8 MPG. Tony isn't good, but he's not as completely awful as it often seems. He averages 9.3 PPG an 2.3 turnovers per game in roughly 30 minutes of play, and is shooting a not-awful 41% overall.

Even assuming CMM is as good as could reasonably be expected for a freshman, I really don't see Tony's minutes being cut that drastically. I expect CMM to be as good as, if not better than Tony at some point next season, but Tony will start the fall as starting PG and it will be up to CMM to take it away. Even when and if he does, I don't see the split being anything like 2x the minutes for Codi as for Tony.

slothrop said:

Like it or not, if he is still here, Tony will be playing more than 12 minutes a game next year.

Click to expand...

He'll play 10-14MPG, CJ will not play any appreciable minutes at PG. I'd be surprised if he plays any PG in more than 3-5 games (barring injury).

PG: Chennault- 23, CMM- 17
SG: Harris- 30, CMM- 8, Fischer- 2
SF: McKie- 12, Fischer- 10, Moto- 9, Rountree- 6, Harris- 3
PF: McKie- 20, Moto- 12, Thomas-5, Green/Cavanaugh- 3
C: Carson- 21, Thomas- 19


Harris- 33
McKie- 32
CMM- 25
Thomas- 24
Chennault- 23
Carson- 21
Moto- 21
Fischer- 12
Rountree- 6
Green/Cavanaugh- 3
Washington/Fields- spot duty

Conference rotation

Chase won't play 10 mpg at SF when we have Travis, Tree and Moto.

OldGoldBeard said:

PG: Chennault- 23, CMM- 17
SG: Harris- 30, CMM- 8, Fischer- 2
SF: McKie- 12, Fischer- 10, Moto- 9, Rountree- 6, Harris- 3
PF: McKie- 20, Moto- 12, Thomas-5, Green/Cavanaugh- 3
C: Carson- 21, Thomas- 19


Harris- 33
McKie- 32
CMM- 25
Thomas- 24
Chennault- 23
Carson- 21
Moto- 21
Fischer- 12
Rountree- 6
Green/Cavanaugh- 3
Washington/Fields- spot duty

Conference rotation

Click to expand...

Split 10 of TC's minutes between Rountree and Fischer and I think you have it right.

I don't think we will see TC and CMM on the court at the same time for any significant number of minutes.

That's a 13 man rotation...aint gonna happen. Green, Washington, and Fields will not see the floor next year.

There will be some attrition. I would assume Green or Fields moves on to greener fields.

Ideally, imo:

PG CMM 30 Harris 10
SG Harris 25 Fischer 15
SF Moto 20 Fischer 5 Rountree 10 McKie 5
PF McKie 25 Cavanaugh 15
C Thomas 25 Desrosiers 15

Harris: 35
McKie: 30
CMM: 30
Thomas: 25
Moto: 20
Fischer: 20
Desrosiers: 15
Cavanaugh: 15
Rountree: 10

Anyone else would only play because of injury, foul trouble or in garbage time.

Atlanta Deacon said:

There will be some attrition. I would assume Green or Fields moves on to greener fields.

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PhonsoINT said:

That's a 13 man rotation...aint gonna happen. Green, Washington, and Fields will not see the floor next year.

Click to expand...

Bingo

KidA23 said:

My first reaction is I think you are predicting entirely too few minutes for Tony. He plays 29.8 MPG. Tony isn't good, but he's not as completely awful as it often seems. He averages 9.3 PPG an 2.3 turnovers per game in roughly 30 minutes of play, and is shooting a not-awful 41% overall.

Even assuming CMM is as good as could reasonably be expected for a freshman, I really don't see Tony's minutes being cut that drastically. I expect CMM to be as good as, if not better than Tony at some point next season, but Tony will start the fall as starting PG and it will be up to CMM to take it away. Even when and if he does, I don't see the split being anything like 2x the minutes for Codi as for Tony.

Click to expand...

In what world is 41% (eFG%: 44%) from the field not awful?

I'll go on the record right now... CMM will take the starting job from Tony within the first 5 games. And once he does, I definitely expect a significant minutes gap.

Right now, I'm thinking, for conference play:

1) CMM 25 | Tony 15
2) CJ 32 | Chase 8
3) Travis 15 | Moto 15 | Rountree 10
4) Travis 18 | Green 12 | Thomas 10
5) Carson 25 | Thomas 15

Totals:
Travis: 33
CJ: 32
Carson: 25
CMM: 25
Thomas: 25
Moto: 15
Tony: 15
Green: 12
Rountree: 10
Chase: 8
Cav: 0
Washington: 0
Fields: 0

PG CMM 25, TC 15
SG Harris 32, Fischer 8
SF Fischer 17, McKie 15, Moto/Rountree 8
PF McKie 20, Thomas 15, Cavanaugh/Rountree 5
C Derosiers 25, Thomas 15

I agree with a lot of that, ph.

I really can't see Rountree playing the 4 though. He is about as built as Daniel Green right now. His biggest asset is going to be wing defense.

Yeah, great minds I guess. I can't see Rountree playing the 4 either, but sadly I can't see the following two things happening:

1. McKie, Thomas, and Derosiers playing all 80 minutes at PF/C.
2. Fischer, Moto, and Rountree playing all 40 minutes at SF


I think people are greatly undervaluing the experience and possible development Fischer and Derosiers will bring to the court, especially from the perspective of the head coach. If you've only got 4 returners with decent experience, those 4 will play a lot of minutes.

i hope someone sends carson some hgh or something this offseason

stonzm9 said:

In what world is 41% (eFG%: 44%) from the field not awful?

I'll go on the record right now... CMM will take the starting job from Tony within the first 5 games. And once he does, I definitely expect a significant minutes gap.

Right now, I'm thinking, for conference play:

1) CMM 25 | Tony 15
2) CJ 32 | Chase 8
3) Travis 15 | Moto 15 | Rountree 10
4) Travis 18 | Green 12 | Thomas 10
5) Carson 25 | Thomas 15

Totals:
Travis: 33
CJ: 32
Carson: 25
CMM: 25
Thomas: 25
Moto: 15
Tony: 15
Green: 12
Rountree: 10
Chase: 8
Cav: 0
Washington: 0
Fields: 0

Click to expand...

This one. The vast majority of guards in the bottom-half of the ACC would love to have Tony's eFG%:

GT's starting PG, Mfon Udofia, is shooting 38.8% overall and 31% from 3 in 31 MPG.

BC has 3 guards who play at least 20 minutes per night. Matt Humphrey is shooting 34.8% overall and 31.8% from 3 in 30 MPG. Lonnie Jackson, is shooting 39.9% overall in 27 MPG. Jordan Daniels is shooting 33.9% overall and 32.6% from 3 in 23 MPG.

Dorenzo Hudson, VT's starting SG, is shooting 39.7% overall and 31.3% from 3 in 27 MPG. VT's 3rd guard, freshman Robert Brown, is at 36.4% from the field in 22.5 MPG.

Andre Young? 40.9% overall, 35.6% from 3 in 35 MPG.

Terrell Stoglin? 42.2% from the floor. Pe'Shon Howard? 36.9% from the floor in a team-leading 32.9 MPG. Maryland's other guards, Mosley and Faust, are at 40.1% and 34.7% overall, respectively.

And 2 of Miami's 3 core guards, Malcolm Grant and Shane Larkin, are at 33.3% and 35.7% overall, respectively.


Most college guards don't shoot impressive percentages. The exceptions are exceptions for a reason. Erick Green, Glen Rice Jr., CJ Harris, Durant Scott...these are these teams' respective standouts. But the vast majority of rotation guards for bottom-half ACC schools don't break 40%.