Is the new NBA contract a factor in Wake recruiting?

I was listening to Ted Leonsis (Wizards and Capitals owner) on the radio driving into work yesterday, and he was talking about the looming NBA collective bargaining expiration, which may impact next year's NBA season. One of the radio guys said the NBA should move to a system like baseball where you either go pro right out of high school or stay in college for three years. Leonsis said that it's not his job to protect the college product, but it seems like its a possibility regardless.

So all that being said, is part of this Wake retooling a hedging of bets that in future years any recruits are going to have to stay for three years, impacting the types of players that will go to college at all? Not saying that it was the main driver behind hiring Bzzz, but if this rule was put into effect it would certainly impact recruiting strategies for all schools.

I understand the argument you're putting forward in the second paragraph, but I think to say that Wellman was hiring a coach who was more geared towards "coaching up" unpolished or raw talents in anticipation of the new NBA CBA seems like a bit of a stretch.

As an aside, I've been saying for awhile now that the best way to save college basketball (and ultimately benefit NBA teams) is to adopt a draft system similar to college baseballs. Let the top, top, top blue chip recruits leave for the NBA straight out of high school and require everyone else to be out of high school for three years (be that Europe or college).

Edited to say: and yes, it would definitely affect recruiting strategies, although not to the extent that I think you are suggesting. Assuming for the sake of argument that the NBA were to adopt the same draft rules as MLB, I think you'd see the top 5 high school players going straight to the NBA (maybe more, maybe less depending on the year) but the remainder of players would be going to college.

Marc spears of Yahoo! Sports writes (and tweets) that the current buzz indicates NBA owners are looking at a 20-year age floor for draft entrants:

Several high-ranking NBA team executives told Yahoo! Sports they wouldn’t be surprised if the age limit in the new CBA is pushed to two years in college and 20 years old by the end of that calendar year. One NBA general manager says about two-thirds of teams are in favor of that change. The current CBA states that an American must be out of high school for at least one year and be 19 years old by the end of that calendar year before entering the draft.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=mc-austin_rivers_nba_age_limit_duke_draft_040811

We should be so lucky.

So you listen to the JUNKS, rolfe?

I actually think this rule would hurt wake although I still hope it happens. We are currently recruiting players that are going to stay 4 years regardless of this rule. I can't see more than 5-10 guys a year going straight to the pros which leaves a lot of very good players (that wont be going to wake) for the major programs and then forcing them to stay for at least 3 years when a lot of them would be jumping to the pros after year or 2. This will take away the advantage that a lot of the quality mid majors have in having continuity and experienced teams vs talented but much less experienced teams that are quite raw. To me wake is trending towards this mid major type model under bzzzz.

Yep, the Junkies. Lurch sounded horrible all week.

At least JP was gone all week. People kill him but EB is my BOY.

Wfdeacons99 said:

I actually think this rule would hurt wake although I still hope it happens. We are currently recruiting players that are going to stay 4 years regardless of this rule. I can't see more than 5-10 guys a year going straight to the pros which leaves a lot of very good players (that wont be going to wake) for the major programs and then forcing them to stay for at least 3 years when a lot of them would be jumping to the pros after year or 2. This will take away the advantage that a lot of the quality mid majors have in having continuity and experienced teams vs talented but much less experienced teams that are quite raw. To me wake is trending towards this mid major type model under bzzzz.

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this is certainly plausible. the other potential scenario I see is that since only the top top talent would leave for the NBA, a team like Wake could end up doing better in recruiting. instead of 20 or so of the top talent going to the same 5-6 schools EVERY year, you would see those talents spread out over more programs. a top flight SG won't want to attend the same school as a top flight SG from the previous year if they both have to stay for 3 years. in that way, a rule like that may benefit Wake, especially with NC kids, as talented players would be more apt to come to Wake than sit behind other talent at UNC or Duke. of course that will still require recruiting we have yet to see but a rule like this may benefit schools like Wake in the end.

The biggest factor is that Duke and UNC can't keep signing the top talent as long as players have to stay in school for at least two years. If UNC's point guard is to stay for three years, then they can't sign the best point guards each year. This is huge.

RiskyBusiness said:

The biggest factor is that Duke and UNC can't keep signing the top talent as long as players have to stay in school for at least two years. If UNC's point guard is to stay for three years, then they can't sign the best point guards each year. This is huge.

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I don't see this as being an issue...it's not like UNC is a revolving door of one and done players.

RacerDeac said:

I don't see this as being an issue...it's not like UNC is a revolving door of one and done players.

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It's definitely going to be a factor, though.

In one sense, a 20-year age limit will help the UNCs, Dukes, and Kentuckys of the world because they get a guarantee that all their blue chippers will be there at least 2 years. This would mean another year of Kyrie Irving (Duke) and of Terrence Jones / Brandon Knight (Kentucky)--certainly not good news for their conference rivals.

On the other, Kentucky has 4 McDonald's AAs coming in again next year based largely on the premise/assumption/whatever that at least SOME of Jones, Knight, Kanter (who never showed up), etc. wouldn't last more than 1 year. Surely, Duke would've had a harder time recruiting Austin Rivers or Quinn Cook had everyone known that Kyrie Irving was sure to return next season.

The question is whether Wake is in a position to scoop up any of these blue chip players that would've gone to the traditional programs for such recruits, but who cannot because those programs now do not have space for them. Under Skip, I'd say yes. I'm not so sure now.

And let me just say that this is NOT meant to be a knock on [Redacted], as I believe he wants the best players possible (within reason, of course). It's rather that Skip was more willing to fight it out with bigger programs in long, drawn-out recruiting battles for 4- and 5-star prospects. [Redacted] seems interested in scouting and offering those same players (i.e., it's not that he doesn't "want" those guys, as some extreme posters have claimed), but that he is ALSO offering less touted players early on at the same time--which, as we've seen, has resulted in some early commitments that then take us out of any recruiting battles for 4- and 5-star prospects. IOW, yea, [Redacted] recruits and offers the blue chip players, but he's also extending early offers to a ton of under-the-radar kids at the same time. Which group are you likely--or at least more likely--to receive early commitments from, thus consuming your scholarships?