• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

Crossroads, AFP shutting it down in Michigan

I wonder if they will ever look back and ask themselves, "Why did I spend so much money on TV commercials?"

Fiscal responsibility.
 
I didn't realize that Romney was in favor of public funding of presidential campaigns.

I'll tell you what he could do, though: He could release his tax returns, showing that he may have paid, say, an 8% effective tax rate over the last 10 years....or whatever it was....instead of a fair rate of somewhere around 30% (assuming his returns don't show something a lot worse than that)....and tell the American people that he realizes that he was shafting his country and is going to take that 22% difference (about $4.6 million per year on $21 million) and give $46 million to charities (other than the Mormon Church) as an act of penitence.

I wasn't making the claim that Romney was for public financing (I honestly don't know where he stands), my point is that there is a large group of swing voters that would buy into this sort of political move. The Right is going with Romney anyway, and this would give them a feel good reason to support his campaign. He wouldn't need to sugarcoat it as though he is being simply altruistic. Call it for what it is. Say he hopes it will show the American people the kind of common sense he has. Instead of wasting all this money on advertising, he is going to put the money to work. Advertising is all about either defining yourself or defining your opponent. Simply make all of his money about defining himself in a manner that the public would really have a chance of buying into.

You say you want to help people...then help people. It is so crazy, yet so common sense I really think it could work...if he could get past his handlers.
 
You are really overrating the tax return thing. He's not moving the needle nationally for the same reason he didn't in the GOP primary until the media pretty much offed the competition for him -- because he doesn't inspire people. No one's excited about Mitt Romney running. Everyone is sort of "well, he wasn't my first choice but he's better than the other one now". That was and would have been true if he had released every tax return of his life.
 
After the GM misstep, Romney really doesn't have a shot in either state. He is running out of states, but it makes sense to try a strategy that has some hope of success. He has to has to has to win Ohio, and he's not winning there right now. I bet all that money goes there and to Florida. I feel really bad for TV viewers in those two states.

Don't forget us here in VA. MI's "loss" in political ads will be VA's "gain." [sigh]

Romney has been polling pretty well in MI - he's been within a few points, which ain't bad for a Pub in a fairly blue state. But if Romney advertised heavily in MI, so would Obama with Romney's penned "Let Detroit Die" op-ed piece. That's why I've thought no matter what the polls say now, MI would be very difficult for Romney to win. OH will be tough but not as hopeless.

If you give Obama MI, that puts him at 241 in EVs in terms of likely Obama states. Romney absolutely must get FL & NC (the latter he should win). Then get the majority of OH, VA, WI, IA, CO & NV which total 62 EVs. CO & NV are fairly uphill battles. But OH, IA & WI are very close (Ryan seems to have helped by a couple points or so in WI). Romney's biggest problem in VA, however, is the presence of Gary Johnson and Virgil Goode on the docket. He can't afford to lose 3-6% points to those 2 combined here. So look for Romney to litigate to have both of those guys thrown off the ballot.

Here's an interesting scenario. Say Obama gets his already 241 likelies and adds to that CO, NV and VA but nothing else. That gets him to 269. And a tie goes to Romney. If I were Obama, I'd also be putting some $$ in Omaha to see if he can get that 1 EV again just in case. But to me, the most interesting thing still is the Senate. That's the real nailbiter here.
 
If the GOP is to remain viable, its future isn't as a social conservative party based in the South. Demographic changes won't allow that coalition to survive nationally. Nixon's Southern strategy and the trashing of Obama has lost the Black vote. Embracing Tom Tancredo, Joe Arapaio, Jan Brewer and passing on the Dream Act has severely hurt them with Latinos. Marginalizing Ron Paul and trying to deny Gary Johnson ballot access has soured libertarians on the GOP brand. The GOP has gone all in on a shoot the moon strategy with a homogeneous far right Tea Party base for 2012 and has already laid the groundwork for losing nationally in 2016. Good luck trying to get back in the game with a social conservative agenda after Dems have remade the Supreme Court from 2012 through 2020.
 
You're dreaming. There is a much better chance that Romney won't carry any of those six states than there is that he will get a majority of them.

Jesus dude, I'm not saying that will happen. I'm saying that's where Romney needs to aim and spend his $$. Spend your $$ in those states, get a couple of bad job reports, and he has half a shot. He's only 1-3% behind Obama in those states, so they're not done deals. You tell me what different states Romney should go after instead. MI, MN & PA?
 
There's no point in spending a penny in PA, MI, MN. He should spend that money in OH and FL. It's his only hope.
 
There's no point in spending a penny in PA, MI, MN. He should spend that money in OH and FL. It's his only hope.

I would only give up on Michigan. They're all waiting around for Obama to show them that stash finally and buy them shit. Hope springs eternal in Detroit (which we should cede to Canada).
 
There's no point in spending a penny in PA, MI, MN. He should spend that money in OH and FL. It's his only hope.

I realize that, and that was my point, which the 2 of you apparently failed to comprehend. But abusiveindianacoachfan took issue with my thesis that Romney should be concentrating his $$ on NC, FL, VA, OH, WI, IA, CO & NV. So I was asking him where he'd spend his $$ if he were Romney. It's possible, maybe even likely, that his head might explode were he to try placing himself in Romney's campaign. But that's the issue Arlington and I were speculating on - what states to aim at to best have a chance of winning. And I was agreeing with Arlington and apparently Romney's superPACs that MI is a losing proposition, and that was, you know, the point of the whole thread.
 
I would only give up on Michigan. They're all waiting around for Obama to show them that stash finally and buy them shit. Hope springs eternal in Detroit (which we should cede to Canada).

So you would spend your $$, if you were Romney, in MN & PA? And exactly what shite is Obama going to purchase for the residents of Detroit? And what stash is Obama going to show the residents of Detroit? And btw, Canada doesn't want Detroit. Detroit is a horrific mess, and sure, you can blame the UAW and GM & Chrysler management for that. But at the end of the day, it's still part of the US, so we do own it.
 
I realize that, and that was my point, which the 2 of you apparently failed to comprehend. But abusiveindianacoachfan took issue with my thesis that Romney should be concentrating his $$ on NC, FL, VA, OH, WI, IA, CO & NV. So I was asking him where he'd spend his $$ if he were Romney. It's possible, maybe even likely, that his head might explode were he to try placing himself in Romney's campaign. But that's the issue Arlington and I were speculating on - what states to aim at to best have a chance of winning. And I was agreeing with Arlington and apparently Romney's superPACs that MI is a losing proposition, and that was, you know, the point of the whole thread.

And it is a good point. Michigan is Michigan. I grew up there. Better to spend the money on the other states you note. But I would not give up on MN and PA... not at this point. We haven't had a debate yet.
 
Oooooh, the debates. Yes, they will be the game changer that they have been for the last umpteen presidential campaigns.
 
So you would spend your $$, if you were Romney, in MN & PA? And exactly what shite is Obama going to purchase for the residents of Detroit? And what stash is Obama going to show the residents of Detroit? And btw, Canada doesn't want Detroit. Detroit is a horrific mess, and sure, you can blame the UAW and GM & Chrysler management for that. But at the end of the day, it's still part of the US, so we do own it.

Bit touchy are we? First of all, I was making mention to a rally in Detroit years ago when supports were talking about getting cash from Obama's stash. And yes, MN and PA are still in play. And I am very aware that Michigan is stuck with Detroit but I have high hopes when it becomes farm land again Michigan will become a red state. Oh, and the debates don't matter? Well, let's just see about that.
 
There hasn't even been a poll in MN for over a month. Nate Silver has SC at 97.5% for Romney and MN 95.5% for Obama.

You need to put to the bong down.
 
Are there Really that many undecideds in any battleground state? I have to figure the number at less than 1 to 2% if even that much. Can you imagine spending 100 mil or more chasing something that small?
 
Bit touchy are we? First of all, I was making mention to a rally in Detroit years ago when supports were talking about getting cash from Obama's stash. And yes, MN and PA are still in play. And I am very aware that Michigan is stuck with Detroit but I have high hopes when it becomes farm land again Michigan will become a red state. Oh, and the debates don't matter? Well, let's just see about that.

Michigan going red one day would be akin to SC going blue. It will never happen.
 
Back
Top