For real though: What is Romney's Path to Victory?

Ball State Deac said:

Because people have already decided. Those that haven't aren't watching the debates, and frankly, may not vote. Whatever hope Romeny had went out the window when then undecided voters learned via their FB friends that he was going to fire Big Bird.

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I usually agree but not here. In the next couple of days, we'll see the effects, if any, the debate had on the polls. If the rest of the debates go similarly poorly for Obama, I can see it tightening. I believe Romney's path is limited because I just don't see him winning OH or WI. But he's still within 1-4 points in FL, VA, IA & CO. Nevada has been more like 4-5% points. As I've said earlier, if Romney can sweep those states (and keeps Omaha), that gets him to 269.

Late moves in the polls have occurred before. 1980 comes to mind. Most folks recall that as a Reagan landslide. But until the last week or 2, the polling was nip and tuck. Then that last week, the 1 year anniversary of the Iran hostage crisis was all over the news, and with those images in mind, a lot of folks on the fence, formerly for Anderson, or softly for Carter went for Reagan in that last week.

How can that happen here? There could be an international event, though I'm not sure that helps Romney because he's not as trusted in the foreign affairs arena, but it's possible. It's getting a little late for an economic event, especially with the recent job #s. Maybe Spain or Italy failing, but I don't see either causing an immediate crumbling or credit freeze here. And while I believe veep debates have never mattered (see Quayle, Dan), 2 more poor performances by Obama and 2 credible performances by Romney might start to change the minds of some fence sitters and soft Obama votes. Some folks could start thinking, well, I like Obama enough, and the recession wasn't his fault, but we're still not in a great place economically. And Romney got off to a rough start, didn't connect and seemed too right wing, but he sounds more moderate now and maybe he could do more for the economy.

It's getting late, and I believe Romney not moving toward the center after the convention, a lackluster convention giving him no bounce, people like Todd Akin in the news, his tax return issue and most importantly, his initial defense of his 47% remarks did him significant damage. We'll see how irreparable that damage was, but I just don't believe this thing is over quite yet.