Official 2012-2013 NBA Season postmortem

RJKarl said:

He's going to have a decent year, because he'll play more. But the reality is you can't project his numbers to playing 30+mpg. His numbers were typically gotten against scrubs. You don't get the same amount of rebounds against Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan, Cousins, et al, as you do against subs.

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His pre-season numbers and per 40 minute pace adjusted projections basically match. I'm guessing he'll average around 8 and 11 on ~50% shooting this year with a block or two thrown in for good measure.

Deacfreak07 said:

Everyone loving the move for OKC, they just closed their door to future FA conversations as team unwilling to pay it's players.

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No big free agent was gonna go there anyways unless it was a veteran trying to win a 'ship. How many teams with two guys signed to max deals are going to be playing the big free agent game?

IrishSlim said:

This obviously gives OKC all kinds of flexibility going forward, but there's no doubt that they're a worse team this year than they were yesterday. That's not a good thing for a team that was a few timely baskets away from a title.

Kevin Martin is not James Harden lite. He's a good shooter, but he won't compliment Durant and Westbrook the same way Harden did, and he's a god, god awful defender. It's too bad they can't combine him with Thabo to form one shooting guard.

Props to Presti for the balls to make this move, though. Clay Bennett fucking blows, this is on him. Harden deserved to get paid top dollar, and he's only going to get better. (And as RJ and Jaybone have pointed out before, he'll be playing into his 40s barring a major injury.) Time will tell if he can be the man on a winning team, but he's definitely going to put up big numbers now. As a fan, I'm just going to miss watching him play with Durant and Westbrook. It was always fun to watch.

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Actually, it gives them no more flexibility until after 14/15, they are at the cap until then with just Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka and Perkins. They have no flexibility until then.

This trade makes them a markedly worse team unless they get very lucky in the draft and that won't happen until after this when they would have been a championship contender.

The reality is if Perry Jones is on his way to being the player people thought he'd be coming out of college. The Thunder could have dumped Perkins overpriced contract and kept Harden.

Martin can't play D, is injury prone and will walk after the season to an overpriced contract. Lamb is OK, but he won't play many minutes this year playing behind Thabo and Martin.

The only hope for this trade to be decent is if Toronto suck enough to a Top 10 pick and a great player fall to them. Dallas' pick is Top 20 protected for years to come.

Harden put pressure on the opposition. Now they can't do this.

The concept that Presti is some genius is way overblown:

Durant- As Presti said at the time and since, had they gotten the #1 pick, he would have taken Oden

Westbrook- The needed a PG. He was the best PG. No brainer-anyone would have taken him- if they taken Love and signed a PG they may have been better.

Harden- Everyone's would have taken him- he was head and shoulders above everyone else

Ibaka - a very good pick-this was smart and a little out of the box

Green for Perkins - an extra piece for a piece they needed was a good trade- but did the Thunder know of his heart condition? It did cost them a draft pick.

Presti has done what should have. He made one pick that turned out great. He made a trade that helped but may have been the ultimate cause of trading Harden.

His trade of Harden needs lots of luck to become a wash. It's very, very likely that it will be a big net negative to a team that was on the rise.

Presti has been solid but hardly a wunderkind.

Strickland33 said:

His pre-season numbers and per 40 minute pace adjusted projections basically match. I'm guessing he'll average around 8 and 11 on ~50% shooting this year with a block or two thrown in for good measure.

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Guys who shoot nothing but layups and dunks should shoot higher than 50%.

He's a decent backup. That's all he is.

Maybe the Rockets are trying to tank the season enough to get a Top 5 pick to go along with all their cap space.

rj I think you have maybe the tiniest bit of revisionist history in that post, even if I agree with a good portion of it. I don't remember Harden as a lock to go #4 that year... IIRC there were a lot of options they could have gone with. And I'm not sure what PJIII's development has to do with Perkins... one is a stretch 4 and the other is a pure 5.

If I was OKC there is no way I'm dealing Harden before this season though. I sign and trade him after the year for 75% of what I just got, because his value in helping win a ship this year is worth the reduction in trade value you'd get by waiting. And even then I would have probably just amnestied Perkins. Honestly he sucks and only holds marginal value against the Lakers, and Dwight will still probably rape his soul.

RJKarl said:

Guys who shoot nothing but layups and dunks should shoot higher than 50%.

He's a decent backup. That's all he is.

Maybe the Rockets are trying to tank the season enough to get a Top 5 pick to go along with all their cap space.

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8 and 11 +/- blocks are good starting center numbers in the NBA. Can we agree on this?

FYC, yes he was. Some would have taken him number #2 over Thabeet. Other than Griffin, he was clearly the most NBA ready player that year.

Take a look:

1 1 Blake Griffin* PF United States Los Angeles Clippers Oklahoma (So.)
1 2 Hasheem Thabeet C Tanzania Memphis Grizzlies Connecticut (Jr.)
1 3 James Harden SG United States Oklahoma City Thunder Arizona State (So.)
1 4 Tyreke Evans SG United States Sacramento Kings Memphis (Fr.)
1 5 Ricky Rubio PG Spain Minnesota Timberwolves (from Washington)[a] DKV Joventut (Spain) (born 1990)[19]
1 6 Jonny Flynn PG United States Minnesota Timberwolves Syracuse (So.)
1 7 Stephen Curry PG United States Golden State Warriors Davidson (Jr.)
1 8 Jordan Hill PF United States New York Knicks Arizona (Jr.)
1 9 DeMar DeRozan SG United States Toronto Raptors USC (Fr.)
1 10 Brandon Jennings PG United States Milwaukee Bucks Lottomatica Roma (Italy) (born 1989)[24]
1 11 Terrence Williams SG United States New Jersey Nets Louisville (Sr.)
1 12 Gerald Henderson SG United States Charlotte Bobcats Duke (Jr.)
1 13 Tyler Hansbrough PF United States Indiana Pacers North Carolina (Sr.)
1 14 Earl Clark SF United States Phoenix Suns Louisville (Jr.)
1 15 Austin Daye SF United States Detroit Pistons Gonzaga (So.)
1 16 James Johnson PF United States Chicago Bulls Wake Forest (So.)
1 17 Jrue Holiday PG United States Philadelphia 76ers UCLA (Fr.)
1 18 Ty Lawson PG United States Minnesota Timberwolves (from Miami,[c] traded to Denver)[A] North Carolina (Jr.)
1 19 Jeff Teague PG United States Atlanta Hawks Wake Forest (So.)
1 20 Eric Maynor PG United States Utah

Fuck Your Couch said:

rj I think you have maybe the tiniest bit of revisionist history in that post, even if I agree with a good portion of it. I don't remember Harden as a lock to go #4 that year... IIRC there were a lot of options they could have gone with. And I'm not sure what PJIII's development has to do with Perkins... one is a stretch 4 and the other is a pure 5.

If I was OKC there is no way I'm dealing Harden before this season though. I sign and trade him after the year for 75% of what I just got, because his value in helping win a ship this year is worth the reduction in trade value you'd get by waiting. And even then I would have probably just amnestied Perkins. Honestly he sucks and only holds marginal value against the Lakers, and Dwight will still probably rape his soul.

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i was just about to post that i thought harden and westbrook were far from no-brainers and some considered them slight stretches on draft night.

Well obviously in hindsight he is going to look like the clear choice.

bmoney look at that draft......and look at the roster of the Thunder....the only possible player they could have considered was Evans and he wasn't close to being as good an outside shooter as Harden.

I specifically remember some people wanted them to draft Curry to do the something similar to what Harden does now.

Fuck Your Couch said:

Well obviously in hindsight he is going to look like the clear choice.

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Who would you have taken? He shot 37.6% on threes.

He was consensus 1st Team All American, PAC 10 POY, before the season he was the cover boy for SI. He was never a secret.

The draft wasn't stellar. He was the obvious choice.

EDIT-They already had a better version of Steph Curry in Westbrook.

They could have used Curry to run the 2nd team (like Harden) and then when they played Curry and Westbrook together they could have Westbrook guard 2's.

westbrook was definitely considered somewhat of a stretch. first comment on ESPN.com's draft grade for that night. "Analysis: A lot of people seem shocked the Sonics went with Westbrook this high, but I'm not."

harden was pretty well liked looking at articles posted immediately after the draft, but not everyone was sold that it was the right pick.

for the record, i really liked both picks at the time.

But no one projected that. Steph jumped hugely to get to where he was. The reality is you don't an undersized guy when there is a full sized one.

Drafting Steph would have been a huge stretch.

bmoneydeac said:

westbrook was definitely considered somewhat of a stretch. first comment on ESPN.com's draft grade for that night. "Analysis: A lot of people seem shocked the Sonics went with Westbrook this high, but I'm not."

harden was pretty well liked looking at articles posted immediately after the draft, but not everyone was sold that it was the right pick.

for the record, i really liked both picks at the time.

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Westbrook was considered to be a huge stretch. Most had him mid-to-late lotto at best and he went top-4.

Harden went more-or-less in his projected range. Perhaps a slot or two high, but certainly justifiable given that he was a pretty good match for the Thunder.

RJKarl said:

But no one projected that. Steph jumped hugely to get to where he was. The reality is you don't an undersized guy when there is a full sized one.

Drafting Steph would have been a huge stretch.

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That's not true. Steph's range was top-10 for most of June. DX had Steph going to Minny in place of Flynn if my memory serves me correctly.

Also, back then it wasn't 100% clear that Westbrook was going to completely stick as an NBA PG.

bmoneydeac said:

westbrook was definitely considered somewhat of a stretch. first comment on ESPN.com's draft grade for that night. "Analysis: A lot of people seem shocked the Sonics went with Westbrook this high, but I'm not."

harden was pretty well liked looking at articles posted immediately after the draft, but not everyone was sold that it was the right pick.

for the record, i really liked both picks at the time.

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Westbrook exploded in the camps. If they were going PG, he was an easy choice over DJ Augustin or Bayless who were the other available PGs.

I might have taken Love over Westbrook. I will always take a top big man over a top PG unless the PG is a CP3 or Derrick Rose.

Strickland33 said:

That's not true. Steph's range was top-10 for most of June. DX had Steph going to Minny in place of Flynn if my memory serves me correctly.

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There was a huge drop from Harden to others. Plus they had their PG.