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LOCK, DELETE.

RJKarl said:
I wonder how much more dramatic those numbers would be if you did them for teams over .530 versus teams under .450.
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avalon said:
The consistency of those numbers is kind of crazy. Sure makes spending money on a closer look silly. (Or, at least, spending money on a relief pitcher and only using him in close situations.)
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He updated it with a post about specific closers (like Mo):

"The point of my previous post about relief pitchers was not to look at specific players but to look at the strategy of the ninth inning closer. I'm not saying that I made any breakthrough -- in fact, let me be clear, I am saying that I DID NOT make any breakthrough -- but I do find it fascinating that the closer, as a basic strategy, has not made teams more likely to win games they are leading going into the ninth.

And, even when you break it down to close games, to one-run leads entering the ninth, teams in general are STILL not more likely to win games going into the ninth because of the closer.

Well, of course -- because you are brilliant readers -- you ask about the specifics. What about the Yankees, for instance? Certainly Mariano Rivera makes the Yankees much more likely to win games they lead going into the ninth inning.

So, yeah, I tried to figure it out. What you find is that it's a pretty small sample size -- even for a long career like Mariano Rivera's. I went through a painstaking and probably incorrect process -- but doing that (and remember I was ONLY looking for this specific situation) I found that 158 times, the Yankees went into the ninth inning called on Mariano Rivera to protect a one-run lead. How many times did he protect that lead? Answer: 140.

What does that mean? Some quick calculations:

Baseball on Baseball Prospectus' expected win matrix, teams going into the ninth inning should win about 85% of the time. In the 2000s, which is when Mariano mostly pitched, the win percentage was .848.

And the Yankees with Mariano? They won almost 89% of the time. Win percentage .886.

So, the average team, with that lead would have been expected to hold the lead in 134 of those 158 games. With Mariano, the Yankees held the lead six more times over 16 seasons.

Just another thing to think about."
 
There are very occasional RPs who can make a difference and even fewer who can do it for five or ten years. If you can't get a Chapman (whom I would probably start) or Rivera, there's little reason to break the bank for a stopper.
 
Working on a RP salary spreadsheet now that might be interesting to some.

Oh man Marmol is getting 7,333,333 that is ROUGH.
 
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RJKarl said:
There are very occasional RPs who can make a difference and even fewer who can do it for five or ten years. If you can't get a Chapman (whom I would probably start) or Rivera, there's little reason to break the bank for a stopper.
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Kimbrel?
 
Kimbrel has had two great years. He may be in the changemakers group after this year. Mariano did it for more than a decade.

Lots of guys have a couple of great years. He could be there soon.

Has he ever been a starter? If he has, I'd like to see what Kimbrel could do as a starter like I want to see Chapman.
 
RJKarl said:
Kimbrel has had two great years. He may be in the changemakers group after this year. Mariano did it for more than a decade.

Lots of guys have a couple of great years. He could be there soon.

Has he ever been a starter? If he has, I'd like to see what Kimbrel could do as a starter like I want to see Chapman.
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Mariano Rivera will make 25.3 times more this year than Craig Kimbrel FWIW.
 
Best quote from IAPP's link:

"“We plan absentee ownership. We’re not going to pretend
we’re something we’re not. I’ll stick to building ships.”
- Yankees owner George Steinbrenner, 1973"
 
RJKarl said:
Kimbrel has had two great years. He may be in the changemakers group after this year. Mariano did it for more than a decade.

Lots of guys have a couple of great years. He could be there soon.

Has he ever been a starter? If he has, I'd like to see what Kimbrel could do as a starter like I want to see Chapman.
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I'm confused as to how you have Chapman as a game changer but not Kimbrel. They've been in the league for the same amount of time. And Kimbrel dominates Chapman in 2012 stats. As a matter of fact, he dominates him in stats every year.
 
Royals have 4 great pre-arb relievers in Holland, Crow, Herrera and Collins.
 
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