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BBall Recruiting Megathread 3.0 - The Manning era begins: The Harry Giles Chronicles

VaDeac said:
@r22childress: Haven't seen my fam is 2 weeks. Been on road 4 3weeks. I walk n house exhausted, My 12yr ask me, dad how do u use a condom?!!! What?! ������
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Don't ask Karl Malone
 
VaDeac said:
@r22childress: Haven't seen my fam is 2 weeks. Been on road 4 3weeks. I walk n house exhausted, My 12yr ask me, dad how do u use a condom?!!! What?! 🙉🙈🙊
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Culture.
 
BUT WAIT I THOUGHT THAT STARS DIDN'T MATTER AFTER THE WHOLE AT&T ISSUE?!?!?!?!

#smallsamplesizeDeaconfanbase
 
Stars even matter at Wake. Nobody would take our 3* players over the 4* ones.
 
I would take CJ Harris over Tony Woods, Ty Walker, Ari Stewart, Melvin Tabb, and Carson Desrosiers...
 
Anybody actually read the article? I was not impressed with the spread between the 5 stars and the 3 stars. I would be mightily disappointed if a 5 star recruit only averaged 12 ppg as a senior or even 12.8 as a junior. In comparison the 3 star recruits are averaging 9.1 as a senior. Not much of a difference in my book. Honestly, what would you expect from a 5 star? I'm thinking 17 to 20+ as a senior. He doesn't even give the variability in each group. It may not even be a statistically significant difference. Classic example of over interpreting the data.

Stars matter to some extent but that study doesn't prove it.
 
Neurodeac said:
Anybody actually read the article? I was not impressed with the spread between the 5 stars and the 3 stars. I would be mightily disappointed if a 5 star recruit only averaged 12 ppg as a senior or even 12.8 as a junior. In comparison the 3 star recruits are averaging 9.1 as a senior. Not much of a difference in my book. Honestly, what would you expect from a 5 star? I'm thinking 17 to 20+ as a senior. He doesn't even give the variability in each group. It may not even be a statistically significant difference. Classic example of over interpreting the data.

Stars matter to some extent but that study doesn't prove it.
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You didn't read the disclaimer next to the askerisk, did you. Oh, and there's sort of a massive difference between 9 PPG and 12 PPG when it comes to PPG averages in high-major conferences. The slope of high-major PPGs is not a 45-degree straight line.
 
Haven't clicked on the link, but I'd imagine the only 5* players who make it to their senior year are the crappy ones who didn't leave school early. You're not exactly comparing apples to apples when comparing the 5* and 3* datasets for seniors, since all the best players (more of whom are 5*) have removed themself from the dataset.

Anyway, carry on.
 
KidA23 said:
You didn't read the disclaimer next to the askerisk, did you. Oh, and there's sort of a massive difference between 9 PPG and 12 PPG when it comes to PPG averages in high-major conferences. The slope of high-major PPGs is not a 45-degree straight line.
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I did read the disclaimer next to the asterisk but it was pure speculation on his part. He did not give any data to support his idea that the miniscule drop in PPG from junior to senior year of the 5 stars (12.8 to 12.1) was due to attrition to the NBA. Actually I would think that most of the 5 stars that could jump would jump to the NBA after their freshman year when they become eligible. As for your second point, 3 pts is 3 pts. I don't call that massive. I could buy the difference of 7 or 8 ppg being MASSIVE, but not 3 pts. even in high major conferences.
 
TexasDeac10 said:
Haven't clicked on the link, but I'd imagine the only 5* players who make it to their senior year are the crappy ones who didn't leave school early. You're not exactly comparing apples to apples when comparing the 5* and 3* datasets for seniors, since all the best players (more of whom are 5*) have removed themself from the dataset.

Anyway, carry on.
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If you had clicked on the link you would have seen that the freshman averages for 3 stars was 4.3 ppg to 7.5 ppg for the 5 stars... still a 3 point difference before attrition.

Too many people accept the conclusions of "studies" without thinking critically about (or even reading, yes I mean you, TexasDeac10) the data.
 
Neurodeac said:
I did read the disclaimer next to the asterisk but it was pure speculation on his part. He did not give any data to support his idea that the miniscule drop in PPG from junior to senior year of the 5 stars (12.8 to 12.1) was due to attrition to the NBA. Actually I would think that most of the 5 stars that could jump would jump to the NBA after their freshman year when they become eligible. As for your second point, 3 pts is 3 pts. I don't call that massive. I could buy the difference of 7 or 8 ppg being MASSIVE, but not 3 pts. even in high major conferences.
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30% is massive.
 
If you look at the 2-star freshman average of 3.5 as the intercept or starting point, the difference between 12 and 9 is the difference between 8.5 and 5.5 or 55%.

I understand that the analysis isn't as rigorous as one might prefer. That doesn't prevent the use of common sense to fill in the blanks.

A team with starting 5 4-star seniors has a 15 point advantage over a team starting 5 3-star seniors. That's clearly massive and statistically significant.
 
PhDeac said:
If you look at the 2-star freshman average of 3.5 as the intercept or starting point, the difference between 12 and 9 is the difference between 8.5 and 5.5 or 55%.

I understand that the analysis isn't as rigorous as one might prefer. That doesn't prevent the use of common sense to fill in the blanks.

A team with starting 5 4-star seniors has a 15 point advantage over a team starting 5 3-star seniors. That's clearly massive and statistically significant.
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Would you feel the same way if the standard deviation for each group was say...6 points? Without that information, we don't even know if the differences are real. C'mon PhDeac, use your degree, think critically and call this study what it is... incomplete at best, garbage at worst. Until we know if the differences are real, we can't even have the discussion if the differences are significant in basketball terms.
 
Neurodeac said:
Would you feel the same way if the standard deviation for each group was say...6 points? Without that information, we don't even know if the differences are real. C'mon PhDeac, use your degree, think critically and call this study what it is... incomplete at best, garbage at worst. Until we know if the differences are real, we can't even have the discussion if the differences are significant in basketball terms.
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It's not a statistical study, but the more data points you have showing a different average PPG among the star ratings, the more likely it is to be valid. The data group, which is what this study is approximating, sets the standard deviation for analysis of a data point.

Taking the averages of 19,000 data points probably yields a pretty good approximation of what the standard deviation is. i.e., the differences are probably real.
 
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