Jetlag Bowl III Preview
So, as my Evansville Rachelwoods head into their third-ever Jetlag Bowl on Monday night, I thought now might be a good time to preview the game vs Boca Raton.
The history:
There isn't much. Heading into our first matchup with the Storm, we were 1-2, and headed to a miserable season. At the time, I knew it was bad, though I probably wasn't aware of how bad it was. It ended up being a 106-71 blowout for Boca. The second game was at the height of our struggles last season, and we somehow managed to trim our margin of defeat to 79-48 (improvement!)
The S69 Rachelwoods:
Things are considerably different this year. Evansville heads into their C13 opener with a 3-0 record, thanks mostly to an extraordinarily easy schedule, but also a much-hyped recruiting class. Through three games, Evansville has the #23 L7 scorer (PG John Lawson, 23.0 ppg), the #2 and #3 C13 scorers (Lawson and SF Monte Bueno, 23.0 ppg), and the #4, #5, and #6 C13 rebounders. It all adds up to a much-improved team.
Lawson is a scoring point guard, with most of that scoring coming from outside (83.1% of his shot attempts from long range). Despite those long range shot attempts, he's an incredibly efficient shooter (50%). He also leads the team in fouls drawn, with 4 per game. It all adds up to an offensive powerhouse of a player, and certainly one that we're lucky to have bringing the ball up every possession.
The only other guy on the roster with more than 25 shots is Bueno. He's a great rebounding, great scoring small forward. Somehow even more efficient than Lawson, Bueno has evenly distributed his shot attempts (15% close, 29% mid, 46% long), and he's shooting 65% overall. His hands are stupid good, too, as he leads the team in touches per turnover (303.0). If he has a good game, so will the Rachelwoods.
The most important returning players are sophomore SG Antonio Brinson and senior C Shaun Schreier. Brinson was second on the team in scoring last year, but did so mostly as a volume shooter. Because of his inefficiency, along with the presences of Bueno and Lawson, Brinson has been asked to redefine his game. So far, he's mostly succeeded, surprisingly playing the best defense on the team, and staying out of the way on offense. The team does best when he doesn't touch the ball much, but if he thinks he can hit whatever open looks he gets, he'll take them. Like Lawson, he's mostly a sniper.
Schreier was also asked to reshape his game this offseason, and he's also done well so far. Always a heavy rebounder, he's now become a last resort type on offense. His blocks have been down this year, but he was a big presence in the paint last year (1.5 BPG), and he's held opponents to just 2/15 shooting through 3 games. If he can continue to play his part as a defensive specialist in the post, the Rachelwoods could have some big games against undersized teams. Unfortunately, Boca Raton is far from undersized, and I'd imagine that Schreier will struggle against their more imposing bigs.
The rest of the team has done about as well as expected. Freshman PF Willis Baker has done well as an undersized all-around forward. He rebounds well, and can score in the paint, but his defense has been mediocre. Sophomore Kevin Volz has been tried at every position but SG since joining Evansville, but he's now carved out a role as their backup C. He leads the team in +/-, though that might be more of a damning indicator of Schreier's struggles than anything else. He's 6'9", and not at all a good rebounder. In addition to that, his lack of size in the paint causes his shots to be blocked an inordinate amount. That being said, he has great court vision, and plays very good defense. Because of his size/rebounding disparity, he's probably going to end up as a career backup.
The S69 Storm:
Boca graduated the best player in their program's history last year in Bert Hutchings. It doesn't look like they've slowed at all. John Lawson will have his hands full with JR PG Mo Poisson. Poisson was C13's Freshman of the Year, and had a strong sophomore year. This year, Poisson's got a shot to have his best season yet.
Mo's not without his weaknesses, though. He's currently averaging 20.7 PPG, though he seems to struggle from long range. Despite shooting a staggering 73% on his 3.7 short- and mid-range shot attempts per game, he's shooting just 43% on 7.7 long-range shot attempts per game. Luckily, Poisson does draw nearly 6 (!) fouls per game, though he's only shooting 64% from the line. Finally, defense has never been Poisson's strong suit, and Lawson should be able to have a field day on Monday. Poisson's FG% allowed is an unreal 64.7%.
Of course, the Storm are far from over reliant on Poisson, and that's where JR SG Erin Atkins comes in. Atkins has never averaged fewer than 18 PPG, and he scores with all of the efficiency that Poisson lacks. He's also a considerably better defender. Though he's allowed a FG% of 51.9% this year, he leads Boca in created turnovers, and could be a nightmare for Antonio Brinson if Brinson gets too many touches. Atkins does have some issues with turnovers, but his hands aren't as bad as this year's 3.0 TO/PG would suggest... 5 of his 9 turnovers this season came in Boca's loss to powerhouse Philadelphia. The only other significant weakness with Atkins seems to be an inability to create his own shot. He leads the team in assists received, with 4.7, which might indicate that he's a catch and shoot type that could be dangerous with screens. Brinson's lack of athleticism could really hurt him there.
As far as bigs go, Boca Raton's had a bit of a crisis there early on. They have a lot of options for their frontcourt, and while it looks like the Storm have settled on JR SF Michael Gonzalez, SR PF Leon Cochran, and SO C Bruce Truong, there's no telling how that lineup could look on Monday night. Cochran's the most interesting guy of the three, as an elite recruit that mostly underwhelmed in his first three years. In two games as a starter, he's averaged 20 PPG and 6 RPG. He actually shoots most of his attempts from outside, though he's obviously most effective (85.7%) in the paint. Like most of both teams' players, he hasn't been great defensively, though he could offer a steal and a block per game with 30 minutes. Truong might be the scarier player, as he's put up elite rebounding and defensive numbers so far this season, against some tough competition.
The big problem we're going to have with the Storm is their bench. There's really no weakness there, and guys like FR bPG Jake Evans could start for most teams. He's played exceptional defense this season, and has scored efficiently (if rarely). SO bPF Wilbur Cowan hasn't played in a ton of games, but when he has, he's been mostly solid (currently leading the team in rebound % and playing suffocating defense).
The prediction: 86-73, Boca Raton
Things will be better for the Rachelwoods than in games 1 and 2, but the Storm's depth and athleticism will be too much for Evansville to handle. Atkins should have a huge night, and should Cowan get a lot of minutes, he could stifle offensive production from Baker. Lawson and Bueno will keep it close (though I think Gonzalez's exceptional defensive play will hold Bueno to the worst shooting night of his young career), and the buckets will be flowing, but it's a win for Boca Raton. If we lose by 30+ again, I'll be sending Stormfury a bill for a new laptop and a window replacement.
