• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

Online Virtual Coach Simulation

Boca (Still travelling) got a big win over hapless Athens 89-61. Tony Gonzalez lead the way with 24 pts. Hutchings had 16/7, Cochran 11/10 and Holden 12/5.

No significant changes in recruiting. Hoping to have 2 clear leads next week.
 
awaken, this is what I've got. My system predicts stats based on HS stats and I calculate the normal distribution of those stats among comparable players. In this case, I compare players to every player 6-7 or under to figure out which ones are projected to be around the top 7% in Points, Assists, Steals, and Turnovers. The normal score is capped at 2. The score below is the highest score x 2.5 + 2nd highest score x 1.25 + 3rd highest score x .75 + lowest score x .5.

The theoretical range is from -10 to 10. The actual scores range from -8.7 to 9.6. From what I've seen, 5.5 means a player is in the Top 10% of potential PGs. Anything 8 or above is elite. For example, Earl Lyles is 9.04 (#13 in the last 20 seasons) and rated as an elite scorer, defender, and ballhandler at PG. He'll probably rate higher at SG and SF when I do those.

According to this system, the best current PGs are the following players (8.75+):

Agustin Todd 6.1 pts, 4.0 ast, 1.8 to last season (benched for a PG from a 4/6 class)
Brian Douglas 17 pts, 3.7 ast, 0.7 to
Cody Webb NA for Boca (?)
Albert Colbert 11.8 pts, 5.0 ast, 2.0 stl, 1.7 to
Judson Desimone 2.0 pts, 3.3 ast, 0.2 to
 
Last edited:
To find Carbondale's past PGs, all I have to do is look at the assist record books:

Norman Lewis (current, S64)
Ron Watkins (s65)
Courtney Burdette (s63)
Ken Bowers (s60-62)- #7 all time League 7 assists for career; #10 all time single season
Teddy Hawkins (s57-59)- #13 all time League 7 assists for career; #17 all time single season
Henry Hall (s56)- 4th highest all-time single season assists- League 7
Hiram Frost (s52-55)- 18th most career assists all time Conference 18
Gordon Ramos (s48-51)- 6th most career assists all time Conference 18
Robert Situ (s44-47)- 9th most career assists all time Conference 18

Of the Top 25 single season assist leaders for Conference 18, Carbondale has 18 of them.

As an aside, I had trouble cracking that consistent Top 25 Power Ranking threshold by going with pure pass-first PGs. So, the last few seasons, I started targeting PGs that could score. Given my recruiting troubles, that has not worked for me at all. Unfortunately, I have so little scoring coming back next year, I have had to delay my PG recruiting and target scorers for this recruiting cycle. I would be elated to land just one of my maxes (mostly because that's such a rare occurrence anyway) to give me a reliable scorer to join my band of bench players.
 
Last edited:
As for the attribute importance, I would go:

10% Scoring
25% Defense
40% Hands
0% Rebounding
15% Intelligence
10% Athleticism
 
I'm looking for stat importance, not attribute importance.

Here's what I have for Carbondale.

Norman Lewis 4.04
Ron Watkins 7.53 Defender Ballhandler
Courtney Burdette 7.25 Ballhandler
Ken Bowers 5.99 Passer
Teddy Hawkins 4.67
Henry Hall 3.00
Hiram Frost 0.85
Gordon Ramos 3.85



Watkins is the only one who was > 1 in points, suggesting an above average scorer, but not an elite scorer. He averaged 17.9 points, 3.7 ast, 1.1 to as a senior.
 
Watkins is the only one who was > 1 in points, suggesting an above average scorer, but not an elite scorer. He averaged 17.9 points, 3.7 ast, 1.1 to as a senior.

Ron was a GFGPEG net guy.

Courtney was FFEFFE

Also, I was looking back at my Season 64 recruiting. I was 1/1 for guys with Exc+, Exc+, Fair + Impact. Lost all of them and those players are back-ups for each of their teams. They'd all clearly be starting for me. It's kind of weird to hope that those fake players are totally miserable, but I do. It has been reinforced hundreds of times for me and others have mentioned it, but you may as well completely ignore Impact preferences when recruiting. They are either irrelevant, or inaccurate.
 
Points, Assists, Steals, and Turnovers
20%.....40%.......25%.........15%


this time with seasons

Timothy Joyce, 42-45
Andrew Gillman, 46-49
Williams Wilson, bPG 47-50
Quincy Cheng, 51-54
Jacob Lane, bPG 51-54
Sam Mooneyhan, 52-55
Quinn Grady, 54-57
Jerrold Salazar bPG, 56-59
LeRoi House bPG/PG 57-60
Hanno Lear, 60-63
Sherm Sapp bPG, 60-63
Isaiah Stockdale ,63-66
Jodie Bothwell, 65-current
Jared Eveland, 65-current
 
Sorry awaken. I thought I had posted yours:

Jodie Bothwell 5.5 Scorer
Jared Eveland 5.6 Ballhandler
Isaiah Stockdale 6.5 Defender
Hanno Lear 7.6 Passer Ballhandler
LeRoi House 3.9
Jerrold Salazar 6.0 Defender
Quinn Grady 6.8 Defender
Quincy Cheng 8.0 Ballhandler
Jacob Lane 7.3 Passer Ballhandler
Jaime Mayberry 5.9 Passer
Williams Wilson 3.9

That's a sick job of recruiting.
 
Last edited:
If you have time Ph feel free to post my guys. This is all pretty interesting.
 
tau, give me some names and I'll post what I've got.

This exercise has helped me realize that I've recruited very few true PGs. My best player ever Laron Ojeda was PG for one of my runner-up teams and he's a 6.1 due to his negative assists and turnover ratings. And his senior year at point he averaged 2.3 ast and 1.4 to. But I needed a scorer that season. That's why I like calculating the rating by their strengths.

After the reveal, I'll post a list of the top players in this class by position and style. I can say right now that Dan Lash and Aaron Leadbetter are rated at 8.0. Lash is an elite defender with above average scoring and ballhandling. Leadbetter is a scorer and defender with above average ballhandling. Both descriptions fit what I saw in scrimmages. Fritz Curran is 5.1 as a defensive PG with poor passing and handles, but his scoring rating isn't very accurate (I calculate the difference between their actual scoring and projected scoring to determine the accuracy). I'd plan for him to play SG anyway, so I think he'll be around a 6-7 at SG.

No change for me in recruiting. I'm getting excited now.

At least 100 players have made it into the Top 75 so far. I lost one update in Excel. I estimate that between 256 teams that vary in size, around 600-700 maxes are used. From previous experience, I'm guessing the Top 10 are on average 4/4, so that's 50 maxes used for 10 players. The 11-30 players are probably between a 2/2 and 3/3, so let's say they're maxed by around 3.5 players. So that's 70 maxes between those 20 players and 120 maxes used on 30 players. The 31-50 players are probably between 1/1 and 2/2, so let's say they're maxed by around 2.5 players. That's another 50 or 170 maxes used on the Top 50. The other 50 players who made Top 75 are probably 1/1 so 2 each. That's 270 maxes used on the 100 players who have made the Top 75.

So conservatively, there are around 400 or so maxes left for the other 650 or so players. Let's say half of those players are garbage with no chance of getting maxes except by a CPU and we don't have many left. That means the other 300 or so probably average around 1.5 maxes per player. So if you maxed a player who isn't in the Top 75 yet, there's a good chance you're the only one who has maxed them.

Now that I think about it, I can't think of many of my net players who weren't Top 75 who had more than one max. I'm not sure how to play this. I really like several of my net players and I'd love to put a few extra points down on them. If I have one or two 0/0 maxes, that gives me more freedom to spend on a cushion.
 
Anecdotally, I feel like I haven't seen a top 75 player on my board at the reveal, that wasn't at least 2/2 in the past 8-10 cycles. I'm fairly certain every 2/2 has been top 75 and wasn't unlisted. But, that's all purely from memory. I have had some 1/1 battles creep into the Top 75 by season's end.
 
Last edited:
Sorry awaken. I thought I had posted yours:

Quincy Cheng 8.0 Ballhandler GFEFEE Exc hands, Int, Athl :drool:
Hanno Lear 7.6 Passer Ballhandler GEEEGG not first?
Jacob Lane 7.3 Passer Ballhandler GFEPFF
Quinn Grady 6.8 Defender GEEGFF
Isaiah Stockdale 6.5 Defender GEGGGG
Jerrold Salazar 6.0 Defender GEGPFG
Jaime Mayberry 5.9 Passer FFEPPF
Jared Eveland 5.6 Ballhandler EFEGFF
Jodie Bothwell 5.5 Scorer GGGEFG
LeRoi House 3.9 EGGFGF
Williams Wilson 3.9 GFFPFG

That's a sick job of recruiting.

Thanks, we like our ballhandlers in Frankfort, don't we DiV. ;)

I added their attributes and sorted by Ph's numerical assessment.

After Jerrold Salazar are bPG primarily. House was forced to start later in his career, but he didn't handle the role well - sent back to bPG.
 
Anecdotally, I feel like I haven't seen a top 75 player on my board at the reveal, that wasn't at least 2/2 in the past 8-10 cycles. I'm fairly certain every 2/2 has been top 75 and wasn't unlisted. But, that's all purely from memory. I have had some 1/1 battles creep into the Top 75 by season's end.

I've had a few 1/1 and 0/0 players in the Top 75 at the reveal, but they may be anomalies. It is pretty save to say you're not going to have a 2/2 outside the Top 75.

awaken, so my ratings are pretty solid?

I'm curious to see what stormfury has to say about the NA guy that I've projected as one of the top PGs right now. Obviously, I'm not going to get everybody right. I think what I have is pretty solid.
 
Here are those ranked 60-75 in my final Top 35 from seasons 60-65. Nine 1/1's; 13 clear leads

Recruit...............Reg....RPE...Top...Sch.CurrWk.Priority.RPE.Top..W-3..W-12.Teams W12 of Lead (Max 10)
Earnest Griffiths (62).22....30....151....1....0....0....30....151....2....3....172,176
Jeff Simmons (68)......16....16....128....0....0....0....16....128....8....8....123
George Sadler (67) .....4....16....151....0....0....0....16....151....10...10...36
Carlos Rhone (67) .....12....16.....93....0....0....0....16.....93....11...12...72,227
Reece Hearne (62) .....16....16....151....0....0....0....16....151....6....6....126
Tyrone Kelly (68) .....27....15....151....0....0....0....15....151....9....9....211
Timothy Thielen (60) ..20....16....117....0....0....0....16....117....8....8....164
Emerson Campbell (61) .28.....8....151....0....0....0.....8....151....9....255..138
Warren Knight (67) ....27.....6....151....0....0....0.....6....151....9....255..6,195
Les Willis (72)........10....15....151....1....0....0....15....151....9....9....77
Rodrigo Lott (74) .....10....106...106....1....0....1....106...106....0....0....137
Eric Kremer (72) .......9....15....151....1....0....0....15....151....9....9....74
Stanley Flint (74) ....18....15....151....1....0....0....15....151....5....6....151
Steven Simmons (74) ...19....151...151....1....0....0....151...151....1....1....137, 145
Ted Landrum (74) .......9....24....151....0....0....0....24....151....3....7....77,87
John Valenza (70) ......9....16....53.....0....0....0....16....53....11....11...14
Derick Rogers (71) .....8....20....151....0....0....0....20....151....5....11...64,191
Doug Smithey (71) .....29....16....151....0....0....0....16....151....6....8....43,226
Walter Foster (70) ....23....16....113....0....0....0....16....113....11...11...146
Sylvester Taber (70) ..27....16....151....0....0....0....16....151....9....9....215
Rogers Nelson (72) .....8....15....151....0....0....0....15....151....4....4....60,79
Peter Moreno (71) ......9....151...151....1....0....0....151...151....1....1....79, 137
 
Last edited:
I've had a few 1/1 and 0/0 players in the Top 75 at the reveal, but they may be anomalies. It is pretty save to say you're not going to have a 2/2 outside the Top 75.

awaken, so my ratings are pretty solid?

I'm curious to see what stormfury has to say about the NA guy that I've projected as one of the top PGs right now. Obviously, I'm not going to get everybody right. I think what I have is pretty solid.

Yes, well done as always. You nailed each defender with Exc defense, each Ball Handler as Exc hands. Curious to see how Int and Ath impact the ratings given our recent discussion on this thread. They are not absolute. I wish we could see the +/- on our players - it would help explain some things.

btw, what is the difference between a passer and ball handler in your system?
 
I just noticed Boyd Cason (r4) switched positions from PG earlier in the season to SF now. I didn't realize that happened.
 
Yes, well done as always. You nailed each defender with Exc defense, each Ball Handler as Exc hands. Curious to see how Int and Ath impact the ratings given our recent discussion on this thread. They are not absolute. I wish we could see the +/- on our players - it would help explain some things.

btw, what is the difference between a passer and ball handler in your system?

When I get home I can look over the regressions and let you know the GPA, exam and athl effects.

Passer is high assists.
Ballhandler is low turnovers.

Still have to work on integrating error into the projections and do the other positions.

One thing keep in mind is I project what they'd do on a pretty good team. Some player may be projected to do less or more on elite or mediocre teams.
 
Back
Top