Online Virtual Coach Simulation

DeacInVermont said:

I just noticed Boyd Cason (r4) switched positions from PG earlier in the season to SF now. I didn't realize that happened.

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That is weird. Never seen that before. Tells me that either HS players improve (and someone else developed better hands?) or there was an injury. I didn't think either could happen in HS games. Must be something else I'm not thinking of at the moment.

I think it's injury. It has happened before. It's probably just for a game or two.

awaken, here is the relationship between ratings and stats for PGs from my analysis:

Likely to have high points (most important factors, 1=most important):
+Height (4)
+GPA
-Exam
+Sht (1)
+Def
-Hands (3)
+Reb
+Athl (4)
-Team Sht
+Team Def
-Team Hands
-Team Reb
+Team Athl


Likely to have high assists:
-Height
+GPA (5)
-Sht (2)
+Def
+Hands (1)
-Reb
-Athl
+Team Sht (3)
-Team Def
-Team Hands (4)
+Team Reb
+Team Athl


Likely to have high steals:
+GPA
-Exam
+Sht
+Def (1)
-Reb (2)
+Athl (3)
-Team Sht
+Team Def
-Team Hands
-Team Reb
+Team Athl

Likely to have low turnovers:
+Height
+GPA (2)
+Sht
-Def
+Hands (1)
+Athl (3)
+Team Sht
-Team Def
+Team Hands
+Team Rebs
+Team Athl

So fo whatever reason my phone wont open page 23. If anyone had anything directed towards me just post it on this page. Strange cause every other page on the site works....

PhDeac said:

I think it's injury. It has happened before. It's probably just for a game or two.

awaken, here is the relationship between ratings and stats for PGs from my analysis:

Likely to have high points (most important factors, 1=most important):
+Height (4)
+GPA
-Exam
+Sht (1)
+Def
-Hands (3)
+Reb
+Athl (4)
-Team Sht
+Team Def
-Team Hands
-Team Reb
+Team Athl


Likely to have high assists:
-Height
+GPA (5)
-Sht (2)
+Def
+Hands (1)
-Reb
-Athl
+Team Sht (3)
-Team Def
-Team Hands (4)
+Team Reb
+Team Athl


Likely to have high steals:
+GPA
-Exam
+Sht
+Def (1)
-Reb (2)
+Athl (3)
-Team Sht
+Team Def
-Team Hands
-Team Reb
+Team Athl

Likely to have low turnovers:
+Height
+GPA (2)
+Sht
-Def
+Hands (1)
+Athl (3)
+Team Sht
-Team Def
+Team Hands
+Team Rebs
+Team Athl

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Very interesting. It supports a lot of what we intuitively knew, or would be "common sense." It's good that the game acknowledges these things, because many do not. But the most realistic and impressive thing I appreciate is how self-awareness and team awareness is factored in. "My team can't score, so they're looking to me to score - even if I am a PG."

Also good to see how height, Int, and Ath are secondary factors. I think a lot of coaches overrate these categories (esp height). It is tempting to want to look good coming off the bus.

Hey guys, don't let the Monday holiday make you forget to put in your coaching instructions. Have a safe and happy 4th.

OK, I am playing an abandoned team from Billings today (200+ PR), and I'm going to do an experiment. I'm going to try to go "Globetrotters" on them by setting all shooting to 2/2 and going slow pace. Theoretically, I should be passing the ball a lot more and working for dunks.

Predictions on how the boxscore will be different? Score? FG% Assists? Anything else?

I'll say 30/40 FG's (75%), 2/6 3PT, 30 team assists, 20/28 FT's, 82 pts. Billings 57 pts.

I predict about the same number of FGM on fewer attempts (time spent working for shot), few 3pt attempted, increase in team assists, a lot of FT's due to talent differential and more fouls called before shot (also decreasing FGA). This tomfoolery cost me the 100 pts I'd usually get vs an opponent like this, but point spread about the same due to fewer possessions for opponent as well, and increased fatigue on extended defensive possessions.

I hope I can't throw a game screwing around like this.

PhDeac said:

I'm trying out a new system that rates players based on expected production and assigns them a type. I need to test it out using PGs. Give me some names of PGs you've had in the past and I'll see if my system can accurately tell you what kind of player they are/were.

Also, if you had to assign an importance of Points, Assists, Steals, and Turnovers to a PG in terms of percentages adding up to 100%, what would they be (ex. 30% Points, 40% Assists, 10% Steals, 20% Turnovers).

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Sorry I haven't been in town to really contribute to this discussion but I had to travel for work the past week+. I'm back and should be able to assist now. As you know PH, My system of ranking players is entirely based on expected production. It uses a combination of their attributes and stats ranked accordingly based on their scouting rating. It doesn't include int or expected ratings. Basically if he has a Exe or High scout my system goes by his attributes more and if fair or low by his stats more (based on how I value each stat category). I do think doing a Forward/Guard ranking might be a good idea but since I can just filter on height haven't felt the need to do that to this point.

I filter out the int because it's 90%+ predictable based on exam and gpa. So If I'm looking for a specific high int player, I filter my query for only smart kids. etc.

I'm looking to add a predictor formula into my system to see if it can help predict the top 75. I'll do that over the next week and see how it compares to the current season top 75.

Let me know if you have any further questions about my system.

tau06 said:

Oh also, pretty excited for the reveal in League 15 tonight, how is your recruiting looking warak? If I can clear my one NR max (who is a stud SG) and my 6'7 banger i've been putting points on since the second week, i'd feel REALLY good about recruiting. Still pretty optimistic regardless.

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Ugh, My reveal was horrible. If you have any castoffs. Feel free to toss 1 or 2 my way. I'm likely going to drop off of 2 or 3 of my maxes due to the ties. 9/9, 4/4, 3/3, 3/3.

Lubbock has won some high ties the past two cycles though so I may stay on the two 3/3s and look to pick up someone else out of my net. I have 2-3 options in the net at the moment.

Stormfury said:

Sorry I haven't been in town to really contribute to this discussion but I had to travel for work the past week+. I'm back and should be able to assist now. As you know PH, My system of ranking players is entirely based on expected production. It uses a combination of their attributes and stats ranked accordingly based on their scouting rating. It doesn't include int or expected ratings. Basically if he has a Exe or High scout my system goes by his attributes more and if fair or low by his stats more (based on how I value each stat category). I do think doing a Forward/Guard ranking might be a good idea but since I can just filter on height haven't felt the need to do that to this point.

I filter out the int because it's 90%+ predictable based on exam and gpa. So If I'm looking for a specific high int player, I filter my query for only smart kids. etc.

I'm looking to add a predictor formula into my system to see if it can help predict the top 75. I'll do that over the next week and see how it compares to the current season top 75.

Let me know if you have any further questions about my system.

Click to expand...

Look on the last page or so. My system projects your NA PG Cody Webb to be one of the best current players, an elite defender, passer, and ballhandlers meaning he would be among the top PGs in steals and assists with low turnovers on a good team.

Most of the other current PGs who have high scorers are pretty strong players. Just wondering why I've gotten this one wrong.

PhDeac said:

Look on the last page or so. My system projects your NA PG Cody Webb to be one of the best current players, an elite defender, passer, and ballhandlers meaning he would be among the top PGs in steals and assists with low turnovers on a good team.

Most of the other current PGs who have high scorers are pretty strong players. Just wondering why I've gotten this one wrong.

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Interestingly enough, my system ranked Webb as a contributor 9.68 but not as high as yours.

15+ being the superstars who are usually top 5 maxed.
10+ being extremely good players
8+ being major contributors
anything 5-7 range is hit or miss.

I was super excited when I got Cody as a Clear lead as I expected him to be a major contributor for my team out the gate. However when he showed up on campus his attributes were FFGPEG +4/-1. His Int score came in higher than expected and his hands lower. Despite E+ and good stats he came in at G hands. I also had really expected his def and/or ath to improve as well due to his statistics.

In Cody's defense, he's had to fight for playing time with Boca's all time assist leader DB Cannon and now Tony Gonzalez but his bPG numbers really have never amounted to anything and even the CPU tossed him at bSG.

His scrimmages at PG haven't amounted to much either, though I'll give him another shot as a SR Next year. Cody's subpar career and Stephen Norris's excellent career (+2/-1 rating) makes my junior class a bag of mixed results. The class is a combined +6/-2!

Career Totals for Cody:
48 games
532 minutes
72/161 - 44% (fg)
3/18 - 16% (3pt)
33/44 - 75% (ft)
40 rebs
62 assists
4 blocks
9 steals
24 turnovers
37 fouls
180 points

I am curious what your system rates this season's freshman Chauncey Black of FT. Myers.

His numbers in HS were just eh but he's played extremely well in college.

19.5 ppg, 2.8 apg, 3.7 rbpg, 52%/83%/80% with 1.3 topg all at the PG position.

Kind of interesting how FR Joseph Schmidt's turnovers are less than Cody Webb's too. 0.3 in 9 games at bPG. 1.2 per game in HS vs 0.5 / 1.3 for Webb.

Both have G hands while Cody has E int and Schmidt has G int. Cody is also G ath while Schmidt is F ath.

So in the supposed important attributes for ball handling:
Cody Webb +4
Joseph Schmidt +2

But my experience so far is that Schmidt takes care of the ball better than Webb. Hence he is at bPG and Webb is NA.

The CPU also considered Schmidt to be the better bPG.

Schmidt is 3.72, only above average in turnovers.

I've got Black at 8.10 passer/ballhandler with above average scoring.

PhDeac said:

Schmidt is 3.72, only above average in turnovers.

I've got Black at 8.10 passer/ballhandler with above average scoring.

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I guess my values for stats are different than what you've decided upon as Schmidt for me is 7.63. He's been a fairly successful backup so far as a rookie.


Boca destroyed Concord tonight 104-61.

Hutchings had 22/5 with 4 assists.
Gonzalez had 18/4 with 4 assists.
Holden had 18/0 with 3 assists and
Cochran had 15/3 with 5 assists.

With the win we've moved up to PR #4! While it's fun to be top 5, I see the ranking going down with our next 4 conference opponents all sub .500 and 150+ PR. We've got an excellent shot at 20+ wins this season, a career high.

Stormfury said:

I guess my values for stats are different than what you've decided upon as Schmidt for me is 7.63. He's been a fairly successful backup so far as a rookie.


Boca destroyed Concord tonight 104-61.

Hutchings had 22/5 with 4 assists.
Gonzalez had 18/4 with 4 assists.
Holden had 18/0 with 3 assists and
Cochran had 15/3 with 5 assists.

With the win we've moved up to PR #4! While it's fun to be top 5, I see the ranking going down with our next 4 conference opponents all sub .500 and 150+ PR. We've got an excellent shot at 20+ wins this season, a career high.

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COngrats on the top 5 ranking! It certainly is an accomplishment and is something that is a lot of fun to look at, you have an extremely strong team this season.

Flagstaff survived a barnburner 89-87 against a very strong Minneapolis team that has played an extremely difficult schedule that has submarined them to a 3-4 record after this loss. His entire starting 5 is averaging 10+ ppg!

Pedigo and Stone had crazy lines, carrying us to the victory. AP had 24 points on 9-12 shooting in only 19 minutes, he got stupid hot to start the second half, scoring 15 points in the first 6 and a half minutes 5 TO's tough. Stone was just as good with 27 points on 11-19 shooting with 7 boards, 2 assist, and 5 blocks.

We looked to have the game in control, up 55-77 going into the last 10 minutes but the Clippers put a big time rally together, pulling to down only 2 and having the ball with 12 seconds left, but their 6'8 PG Maxwell missed a midrange jumper of the 6'1 Pedigo with 3 seconds left. To close for comfort!

PhDeac said:

I've got Black at 8.10 passer/ballhandler with above average scoring.

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I went back and pulled up Season 65 numbers.

Black for me was ranked at 12.15 and I regret ignoring him. His stats didn't look so appealing in high school 13.5 pts, 3 rb, 3 apg, 1 stl, 1.3 to, 0.3 blpg

He turned out to be a +8 EGEEGF who's playing better in college.

18.4 ppg, 3.3 rb, 3.1 apg, 0.3 spg, 1.1 topg, 0.1 blpg

Bit higher TOs than desirable but ratio is good and he can score.

awaken said:

OK, I am playing an abandoned team from Billings today (200+ PR), and I'm going to do an experiment. I'm going to try to go "Globetrotters" on them by setting all shooting to 2/2 and going slow pace. Theoretically, I should be passing the ball a lot more and working for dunks.

Predictions on how the boxscore will be different? Score? FG% Assists? Anything else?

I'll say 30/40 FG's (75%) Nope, 2/6 3PT Exactly, 30 team assists Got half, 20/28 FT's pretty close, 82 pts pretty close again. Billings 57 pts.

I predict about the same number of FGM on fewer attempts (time spent working for shot), few 3pt attempted, increase in team assists, a lot of FT's due to talent differential and more fouls called before shot (also decreasing FGA). This tomfoolery cost me the 100 pts I'd usually get vs an opponent like this, but point spread about the same due to fewer possessions for opponent as well, and increased fatigue on extended defensive possessions.

I hope I can't throw a game screwing around like this.

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Deacon Blues.......Pos..MIN..FGM.FGA.3PM.3PA.FTM.FTA.REB.AST.BLK.STL.TOs.PFs.PTS
Isaiah Stockdale...PG...28...5...8...1...2...2...3...3...1...1...2...1...0...13
Elmer Custis.......SG...27...6...9...1...2...5...7...0...2...0...0...0...1...18
Bernard Tuttle.....SF...26...4...7...0...0...5...6...5...0...1...1...0...3...13
Rodrigo Lott.......PF...19...2...7...0...0...4...4...2...2...0...2...2...4....8
Henry Doyle.........C...27...2...7...0...1...0...0...7...2...1...0...2...2....4

Jared Eveland.....bPG...12...0...0...0...0...0...0...1...0...0...0...1...1....0
Benoit Carter.....bSG...13...3...3...0...0...0...0...1...0...0...0...0...1....6
Jodie Bothwell....bSF...14...2...2...0...0...4...4...3...3...0...3...0...1....8
Ralph Tatum.......bPF...21...3...6...0...1...0...0...4...2...1...0...1...4....6
Gene Watson........bC...13...0...2...0...0...2...2...4...1...0...0...0...0....2

Team...Totals..........200..27..51...2...6..22..26..30..13...4...8...7...17..78

Quiet Storm........Pos..MIN.FGM.FGA.3PM.3PA.FTM.FTA.REB.AST.BLK.STL.TOs.PFs.PTS
Burt Reedy.........PG...31...2...9...0...2...0...0...5...1...0...0...6...2....4
Seth Mills.........SG...29...3...4...0...1...0...0...3...0...1...0...5...4....6
Stanley Boardman...SF...29...4...8...0...0...1...3...0...2...0...0...1...1....9
Antawn Clarke......PF...27...1...3...0...1...2...2...5...0...1...1...0...1....4
Ray Larocco.........C...25...3...9...0...0...2...3...6...0...0...0...0...3....8

Corey Reece.......bPG....9...0...1...0...0...2...2...0...0...0...0...1...0....2
Alfred Callahan...bSG...11...1...1...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...1...2...2....2
Cal Caron.........bSF...11...1...2...0...0...1...1...0...2...0...0...1...3....3
Greg Chaney.......bPF...13...1...2...0...0...1...3...0...0...0...1...1...1....3
Mack Keen..........bC...15...0...2...0...0...0...0...1...1...0...1...0...2....0

Team.......Totals......200..16..41...0...4...9..14..20...6...2...4...17.19...41


Coaching has a little more subtle influence than I predicted - missed on FGA and assists.

Stormfury said:

Ugh, My reveal was horrible. If you have any castoffs. Feel free to toss 1 or 2 my way. I'm likely going to drop off of 2 or 3 of my maxes due to the ties. 9/9, 4/4, 3/3, 3/3.

Lubbock has won some high ties the past two cycles though so I may stay on the two 3/3s and look to pick up someone else out of my net. I have 2-3 options in the net at the moment.

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No good bud. I ended up with:

Merle Stone CL R5 6'3 Good scouted EGFF_G averaging 24 ppg in
Nathaniel Michaels 2/2 R11 Exc scouted 6'5 FEEG_G
Wifred Comeau 3/3 R15 6'11 Exc scouted FGGE_G with likely G/E int

Then i'm going after Marc Simmons of R17 from my net, had the lead on him as he was only netted by others. Really like the likelihood of me pulling a really good class this time around. If I win a tie at all i'm looking great.

Only guy I have in my net that wouldn't be a complete longshot is Everett Hickman of region 5. He's 6'8 and could come in FEFG_F with a 3.0 GPA and a 60 test score. His leader is at 22 RPE, I was at 14. He has 4 other coaches on him though, so could be hit or miss depending on if they want him. Could be an option if you are desperate and are thin on height. That's honestly all I have in my net, though there is one really good guy who is a CL for someone at 66 RPE that I am going to chase depending on how the coach uses points on him. Sorry I couldn't help more.

Stormfury said:

I went back and pulled up Season 65 numbers.

Black for me was ranked at 12.15 and I regret ignoring him. His stats didn't look so appealing in high school 13.5 pts, 3 rb, 3 apg, 1 stl, 1.3 to, 0.3 blpg

He turned out to be a +8 EGEEGF who's playing better in college.

18.4 ppg, 3.3 rb, 3.1 apg, 0.3 spg, 1.1 topg, 0.1 blpg

Bit higher TOs than desirable but ratio is good and he can score.

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Thanks for the info. An 8.1 in my system is an elite player. He'd rate as the 3rd best PG in this class.

My system is different than yours. The post above shows how different factors affect a PG's stats. So in order to find out a player's true stats, you've got to see how PGs with the same ratings did and compare like that. Without getting into a long explanation of linear regression, I project what HS stats a player would have as a PG playing on a pretty good team (Good team ratings in every stat).

For example, Black's HS stats came on a team that was Exc shooting, which negatively affects a PG's scoring. This year's Boca HS senior average 15, 17, and 18 pts. Black didn't score because he didn't need to score.

I projected his "true" stats as 20.7 pts, 3.4 reb, 3.5 ast, 0.8 stl, 0.8 ast, 0.4 blk.

--------------------

Weirdest game I can remember. Picked up a 56-51 win over a 5-1 Decatur squad. Led the whole game and they closed the margin at the end. Weird to say in such a low scoring game. Decatur averages 63 pts/game. Duluth averages 74.

Duluth allowed 18 and 15 points to Decatur's SG and SF, 14 to the starting frontcourt and 4 pts to the bench. Decatur shot 21-47.

Meanwhile, Duluth was a one man team. SG Ernest Morin entered the game averaging around 25 pts/game, top 10 in the league. Decatur held him to 6 pts on 2-11 shooting. He was actually outscored by Sr bSG Xavier Medley with 8 points. He continues to be very steady averaging 7.4 pts in 14 min.

Sr Adam Cox carried the team in 36 minutes of play. He scored 26 pts on 9-14 shooting and 7-9 SF with 6 reb. I needed every point and every minute.

The weirdest thing about this game is that both teams hit 21 shots. Decatur had 9 ast and Duluth had 6.

No change in recruiting. I'm starting to feel very good. Ran some scrimmages for my net and I've got some fantastic possibilities at SF. I went into the season looking for help at PG and SG. I took a flier on a local big who was too effective of a scorer to pass up. Looking at my roster, I think I'm set for next year at SG and C. Hopefully one of my bigs will emerge from the pack at PF.

tau06 said:

No good bud. I ended up with:

Merle Stone CL R5 6'3 Good scouted EGFF_G averaging 24 ppg in
Nathaniel Michaels 2/2 R11 Exc scouted 6'5 FEEG_G
Wifred Comeau 3/3 R15 6'11 Exc scouted FGGE_G with likely G/E int

Then i'm going after Marc Simmons of R17 from my net, had the lead on him as he was only netted by others. Really like the likelihood of me pulling a really good class this time around. If I win a tie at all i'm looking great.

Only guy I have in my net that wouldn't be a complete longshot is Everett Hickman of region 5. He's 6'8 and could come in FEFG_F with a 3.0 GPA and a 60 test score. His leader is at 22 RPE, I was at 14. He has 4 other coaches on him though, so could be hit or miss depending on if they want him. Could be an option if you are desperate and are thin on height. That's honestly all I have in my net, though there is one really good guy who is a CL for someone at 66 RPE that I am going to chase depending on how the coach uses points on him. Sorry I couldn't help more.

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yeah, recruiting went poorly for me as well in L15. it could have been worse but i will have to win a tie to get myself into a decent class...

Randy Torres 2/2
Daniel Benton 3/3
Joseph Dahlem 0/0

i have 1 player in my net 0/0, but he is really a fall back option. i may have an option or two, but it could be a waste of time as i am behind on every other recruit. any extra big men out there let me know!

Strength of schedule finally caught up with me, blew out the #212 team only to fall in the polls.

Question - how does the postseason work? I see that there are 15 scheduled games, then I assume and conference playoff, then the national tournaments. How many total games are there? With how easy my schedule is, I should start the playoffs at 12-3 (a terrible 12-3, but oh well) - the most wins my team has ever had is 17 - would love to break that in year 1.

DaDeacs said:

Strength of schedule finally caught up with me, blew out the #212 team only to fall in the polls.

Question - how does the postseason work? I see that there are 15 scheduled games, then I assume and conference playoff, then the national tournaments. How many total games are there? With how easy my schedule is, I should start the playoffs at 12-3 (a terrible 12-3, but oh well) - the most wins my team has ever had is 17 - would love to break that in year 1.

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You will have 3 games for your conference tournament (even if you lose) and 6 games for the National tournaments (even if you lose) for a total of 24 games each season.

Winning your conference regular season and conference tournament get you into the NTT (best tournament) with the rest of the slots filled in usually by PR top 50 teams.

Then teams get put into the PTT, RTT and DTT in that order.

I believe winning any of the 4 tournaments nets you free Credits. Not sure if they are real or psuedo.