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Thread: Online Virtual Coach Simulation

  1. #61
    Recruiting

    Scout
    Ph did a great study using data we sent him of the players we have signed over several seasons. He basically deconstructed the Scout rating. Scout is the level of confidence in the purported attributes of a recruit. Here are his findings:

    I did a big study using known ratings which I need to replicate with more known ratings. I came up with the following:

    Exc = all ratings stay the same

    Good Scout, + rating = about 10% of pluses go up, 90% stay the same
    Good Scout, - rating = about 10% of minuses go down, 90% stay the same

    Fair+ Scout, + rating = about 10% of pluses go up, 90% stay the same
    Fair+ Scout, - rating = about 40% of minuses go down, 60% stay the same

    Fair- Scout, + rating = about 15% of pluses go up and about 15% of pluses go down and about 70% stay the same; most of the + ratings to go down were Exc +. In other words, a player with Fair- Scout and a Exc+ rating is about a 50/50 to go down.
    Fair- Scout, - rating = about 55% of minus go down and about 45% stay the same

    Poor Scout = a large majority of Poor-, Poor+, and Fair+ ratings go up; about 40% of Good+ ratings go up. Nothing goes down.

    I had a Poor Scout player go up in 5 categories a few seasons back. He looked like a turnover prone big PG when he actually was a deadeye shooter.

    So the basic story is this:

    Exc scout players are what you see are what you get. So an Exc scout player with strong ratings will have plenty of competition.

    Fair+ and Fair- scout players look better on paper than they really are but several are worth the risk.

    Poor scout players have the biggest payoff but very few look good on paper and the chance they'll go up decreases the higher their ratings are. If you have a player scouted at Good- Good+ Fair+ Poor+ Poor+, he'll probably end up GGGF_F. Don't let the Poor scouted ratings mess with you.

    Local, Win, Impact

    good write-up by tau06. Here are mine copied from DS board, mostly redundant to tau06.

    via awaken
    Local, Win, and Impact measure the recruits' preferences in his school selection. What we suspect happens behind the scenes is that extra RPs are awarded to programs that align with a recruit's preferences.

    Local - measures the desire to either stay close to home (Exc) or go far away to school (None). "Local" is defined as the recruit's region plus +2/-2 regions in each direction. So Franfort, in Region 18, is Local to recruits in regions 16-20, and I am looking at recruits with a high rating in these regions. The regions at each end of the scale wrap around, so that region 1 and 32 are next to each other - R2 team is Local to 32, 1, 2, 3, 4. Regions outside the home region and the +2/-2 are all considered Non-Local. Frankfort is looking for low Local scores for recruits outside of regions 16-20.

    Win - measures the desire to play for a winner, or help build a losing program. The elite programs are looking for high Win preferences; losing programs are looking for low Win preferences. There is a formula that calculates and weighs the Power Ranking of the last three seasons to determine it's status in this category.

    Impact - measures the desire to start, or have an impact on the team. If a team is losing all their big men, then it would have PT to offer big recruits seeking to make an Impact. If a team has its starters returning at a recruit's position/height range, then it would be better aligned with a recruit with a lower Impact preference.

    In this game, you will be in recruiting battles with other coaches for recruits. You will both be spending the same amount of RP's. The coach that better aligns with a recruits preferences will have the advantage - although it is not an absolute advantage (think of it as one having more ping pong balls in the hopper).

  2. #62
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    The ultimate example of the power of the Poor was with a player a long time ago. He was Poor Scouted G+ F+ P+ F+ P+ and came in at EGFG_F. He was one of my first stud players and got me thinking about what Scout means.

  3. #63
    Quote Originally Posted by PhDeac View Post
    The ultimate example of the power of the Poor was with a player a long time ago. He was Poor Scouted G+ F+ P+ F+ P+ and came in at EGFG_F. He was one of my first stud players and got me thinking about what Scout means.
    Wrapping my head around the statistical and psychological aspects of this game were my epiphanies. And Ph opened my eyes to the stats side of it in deconstructing Scout. Then, once I understood this is a basketball themed series of coin flips, I began making decisions differently. Coupling that with the "group think" factor in recruiting trends gave me the ability to put the odds in my favor.

  4. #64
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    And the rest of us are trying to catch up to where awaken is.

  5. #65
    Boca got a 15 point win against an up and coming Ft. Myers team last night. Hutchings had 21 and Varga 19 while Gonzalez had 6 assists bringing his season average up to 4 apg. The starting 5 for Boca are averaging over 10 apg.

    The luxury we finally have is versatility. My first 4 seasons all you had to do was shut down 1 or 2 players and we were done. This team doesn't have a clear 'superstar' statistically, but all 5 of the starters and a couple of the bench guys can have a fantastic game any given night.

    Good luck in the season finale tomorrow.

  6. #66
    Dearborn is doing it's best to flush the season down the toilet! we needed a win against either Bloomington or Green Bay and lost both games in overtime...FUCK!!!

    i have decided to run a new lineup for the tournament and will probably send out a few scrimmages to see what i think...keep posted.

    well, the problem is definitely with my defense and i am not sure how to correct the problem outside of practicing defense. costly turnovers at inopportune times...dang i wish i had a SR that i can play!

  7. #67
    Quote Originally Posted by warak View Post
    Dearborn is doing it's best to flush the season down the toilet! we needed a win against either Bloomington or Green Bay and lost both games in overtime...FUCK!!!

    i have decided to run a new lineup for the tournament and will probably send out a few scrimmages to see what i think...keep posted.

    well, the problem is definitely with my defense and i am not sure how to correct the problem outside of practicing defense. costly turnovers at inopportune times...dang i wish i had a SR that i can play!
    Next season Shook and Dixon will be Seniors! Shoot me some scrimmages if you want to test against my lineup. I thought your lineup that played against me on 4/10/2011 1:46:03 PM did pretty well despite the loss. 3 point game in which you forced 10 turnovers on my team

  8. #68
    So I learned Daniel Raisor 16 Milwaukee 6-7 has a top of 15 rp and
    William Munoz 3 Trenton 6-8 has a top of 21.

    Should I load them up and see if I can get into their top?

  9. #69
    scrimmages available!!!

  10. #70
    Quote Originally Posted by DieselDeac View Post
    So I learned Daniel Raisor 16 Milwaukee 6-7 has a top of 15 rp and
    William Munoz 3 Trenton 6-8 has a top of 21.

    Should I load them up and see if I can get into their top?
    Personally I think Raisor looks absolutely awful. I don't think you need to waste any points on him. Munoz looks like a player you could use and he is smart which I always like. I'd say Stick on Watts, Munoz, and the next best player you have available. Maybe one of the guards in your net who can score or the one with EXC hands to be at worst a good bPG. JMO though.

  11. #71
    Re Raisor and Munoz, max them this week and see where that gets you. This late in the season most have staked their claims already so you shouldn't get many battles. Keep putting a single point on some other mediocre bigs and see if you can get someone else - esp guys 6'9 and taller who could play center.

    You'll need a min of 28 RPE to insure a chance of signing a recruit. Once you get a clear lead and 28, I'd slow up and go back to fishing.

    Since Raisor isn't much of a rebounder, he may end up being a SG/SF for you. Munoz could be a PF for you.

    The guys you sign this season will probably start for you next year, but you'll probably recruit right over them and send them to the bench. By then you'll have graduated two classes of guards and have some semblance of balance on your roster.

  12. #72
    tau is probably right about Raisor - even I put him on the wing and you don't really need that.

    Here are some other bigs that might be available:

    tall, good shot?, good reb
    Name Region Hometown Height
    Adrian Prussia 27 Glendale 6-9
    Emilio Sieben 25 Odessa 6-9
    Walter Wyatt 31 Tucson 6-10
    Williams Corley 8 Kissimmee 6-10
    Kory Febus 5 Yonkers 6-9
    Len Stein 20 Battle Creek 6-11
    Scott Napier 13 Boca Raton 6-11
    Stephen Gard 26 Plainview 6-11
    Dion Berry 6 Camden 6-9


    tall, good def, good reb
    Name Region Hometown Height
    Emilio Sieben 25 Odessa 6-9
    Williams Corley 8 Kissimmee 6-10
    Brevin Etheridge 8 Mobile 6-11
    Antoine Clark 2 Manassas 6-9
    Hoyt Romero 8 Charleston 6-9
    Josh Valverde 20 Fort Wayne 6-10
    Leonard Chance 17 Madison 6-10
    Christian Sweet 25 Casper 6-11
    Skylar Foster 25 Dallas 6-9
    Stephen Gard 26 Plainview 6-11
    Kurt Silliman 5 Annapolis 6-9
    John Cope 27 San Diego 6-10
    Morris Hargrove 24 Amarillo 6-9
    Dion Berry 6 Camden 6-9
    Theodore Tallent 28 Silver City 6-9
    Johnny Rodgers 32 Albuquerque 6-10
    Bradley Hall 15 Bloomington 6-11
    Last edited by awaken; 05-20-2011 at 01:01 PM. Reason: removed attempt at html formatting

  13. #73
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    Vermont and I both maxed Valverde. Corley Williams was late maxed by several teams including me.

    I have some potential players who are currently at 16 who I may or may not need. I'll let you know after today runs and I can see where I stand on some late nets.

  14. #74
    17 RPE is the weekly max per player right? And I get 68 as a small school per week. I accidentally went over 17 on a player, will the overage be ignored, or do you know how to cancel a transaction?

    I'll max Munoz and send out 1 point on some of the other bigs.

    Thanks again.

  15. #75
    Yes, 17 is the max per week. In the earliest version of the game, it was stuff like call, write, watch game, school visit, home visit; but they went ahead with a point system instead...which was probably under the covers all along. This lets coaches put in one transaction for a max instead of 4-5 or whatever.

    If the transaction hasn't been processed, you can delete it. Click on View Recruiting Actions on the coaching page. If you see the errant transaction there, you can still delete it. Go back to the player's page, and select Delete Actions from drop down. This will delete all unprocessed transactions (ie, both if you have two), so you may have to re-do a valid transaction afterward. The transactions are processed top-down, so last transaction stands.

  16. #76
    Recruiting

    Impact

    Here's a thread on the dtl mb that discusses Impact. Below is my post on that thread re Impact and how I imagine recruits are signed by the program:

    *coachjkb wrote:
    *bobby11 wrote:
    *coachjkb wrote:
    Remember that IMPACT recruits also look at the graduates - they want to see good seniors leaving your school, too.


    I disagree...I think the instructions clearly state that he doesn't care about the graduating players, only the players returning...
    Copy/pasted from the Instructions:

    A recruit's ability to have an "Impact" for recruting will be based on:
    - The recruit's self-perception of his talent level.
    - The recruiting team's performance in the just-ended season (assuming, generally, that bad teams need help the most). However, there is some recognition that better recruits can still make an impact at better schools. - Graduating/Returning talent (NOT position-specific).
    - Graduating/Returning height (NOT position-specific).

    Sounds to me that he cares about graduating talent and returning talent. And that he cares about graduating height and returning height. Of course, I realize there's a number of ways to read into that...but the word "graduating" is used, so I'm sure they aren't completely ignored.


    They also clearly state "NOT position-specific", with some effort invested in capitalizing the letters of the word "not". Talent is assessed on a "1 to 768" scale for the 768 recruits, and height is assessed using a yardstick. There's no sense trying to write extra pages upon pages of logic-tests to "match players against players who probably will kinda play a similar style of play". If your team has a ton of 6'7" guys, then a 6'7" recruit is going to find that unappealing.



    Thanks for actuallly posting the Instructions. This part - "However, there is some recognition that better recruits can still make an impact at better schools" - pretty much makes Impact inscrutable to me, and like others, I ignore it.

    The recruiting algorithm as I imagine would go something like this:
    1. All recruits pick a team according to preferences and RPE. There is no limit to the number of recruits a team can have at this point.
    2. Teams with > 3 recruits get reprocessed individually. Recursion begins here.
    3. Teams with > 3 sign top 3 according to Priority Points or cpu valuation
    4. Spurned recruits re-pick as in #1. They may or may not eliminate the spurning school from consideration, depending on how much looping p6k tolerates. Continue down the list of schools with > 3.
    5. Recruits with < 28 RPE may not select according to RPE and preferences. At some point, recruits just get mapped to teams with < 3 recruits. The process is likely abbreviated, possibly skipped altogether so the program will end in a timely manner.

    Recursion of above continues until all teams have exactly 3 signees.

    ^^ Guessing the signing algorithm has no real value to a new coach, just thinking about how the game works..
    Last edited by awaken; 05-20-2011 at 08:38 PM. Reason: adding link

  17. #77
    Lineup change worked out vs Grand Rapids and scrimmage vs Dearborn, who was also experimenting, so who knows? Thanks for the scrimmage, warak. I'm clear on more guards than I can sign, andI'm leaning further away from Klein. But I really want to hear about Diesel's recruiting...

  18. #78
    Quote Originally Posted by awaken View Post
    Lineup change worked out vs Grand Rapids and scrimmage vs Dearborn, who was also experimenting, so who knows? Thanks for the scrimmage, warak. I'm clear on more guards than I can sign, andI'm leaning further away from Klein. But I really want to hear about Diesel's recruiting...
    Diesel, If you want a big guy that's 6'11, Rufus Kelsey of region 22 is available. he's going to be a +2 in hands and ATH but might be a Poor in Shot. Still a serviceable big guy that gives you height and can facilitate out of the post.

    Also, Scott Napier is out of reach FYI
    Last edited by tau06; 05-22-2011 at 12:20 PM.

  19. #79
    Quote Originally Posted by tau06 View Post
    Diesel, If you want a big guy that's 6'11, Rufus Kelsey of region 22 is available. he's going to be a +2 in hands and ATH but might be a Poor in Shot. Still a serviceable big guy that gives you height and can facilitate out of the post.

    Also, Scott Napier is out of reach FYI
    Actually, I lead on Napier but am not likely to sign him. If you want to move into 2nd on him, I'll keep pushing. Currently the lead is 42.

  20. #80
    lineup changed proved to pay off in scrimmages, except for the game against awaken. i will need to tinker a little more but i think i am moving in the right direction.

    good luck in the first round of the conference tournaments coaches!

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