Sent you a PM.Originally Posted by buckets
Sent you a PM.
LGF is making a fucking killing right now.. let it ride..
BOOM, sold by GMCR yesterday bc I needed to liquidate a bit, today it drops over 15%.
You're going to need to liquidate alot more after Sunday
I was about to move my mutual funds into one or two stocks before my last long trip. I would have been buying AAPL at 170ish. Someone in finance told me to keep my money in mutual funds as it wasn't as volatile and a better investment. I wish I could remember who, so I could punch them.
Anyway, finally got around to moving stuff around recently. I'm sure there is some risk to AAPL right now and not diversifying, but not enough to keep me out of 50% earnings over the last 3 months and forecasters calling for at least another 100 pts this year. Anyone see this not outperforming most everythiong?
And for me, if you're under 30 and don't have a family, mutual funds seem like a terrible idea. The small amount you're likely investing isn't going to amount to much more with 5-8% annual earnings. By the time you're ready to sell, you won't think much of the amount you've earned. At least with some more aggressive stocks you have a chance of making some earnings which will help you with a car or down payment.
How high does BAC go before the sell-off? Currently holding 3.5k shares @ average basis of $5.68. This has been a very good week.
Have BAC in client portfolios and have for about seven months. For what it's worth, I have four different trailing sell stops at 7%, 10%, 12% and 20% below certain simple moving average lines. Not really that analytical outside of the fact that it's about an 8% position in close to $130MM of client monies, so I want to essentially be able to capture a large chunk of the upside no matter what happens. With that said, I've also written covered calls and bought a shit ton of protective puts for Aug. 18th expiration for what I think is still pretty inexpensive.
I think you see a sell off in BAC and a lot of other holdings and some spikes in the VIX at some point over the next couple of months. MACD and RSI still holding strong with a lot of large cap companies, but have already seen some deterioration in smaller cap companies and some of your more traditionally volatile holdings.
...
This is a free one, but I love an allocation to VIXY. Don't read about that contango bullshit that might be out there. VIX is way, way off base given what variance swaps look like and price spreads for rolling 30 day (and extended) put/call options contracts. VIX hit a five year low on Tuesday, and coupled with about ten other things, I think a VIX of 14-15 right now is 60-70% off its mark. We will see...
The beginning of the year was marked by a weakening dollar due to quantitative easing. In the last month we've seen strengthening dollar on the back of expectations regarding the future economic growth. We still have high unemployment and low growth. I think the equities market is bound for a correction. Expectations are lovely but there's still significant uncertainty in the US economy and with businesses uneasy about hiring as they wait to see the impact of legislation on their bottom line, I think we'll see a decrease in equities over the next couple months and volatility going into the election.
I guess skydiving and I agree I didn't read his post.
Last edited by Caturday; 03-18-2012 at 01:46 PM.
I don't follow your posting habits. Can you post from work? I was never able to.
DJIA up on "psychological" news of Apple's dividend. Expectations are driving the equity rally; expectations without a foundation.
I'm gonna throw some cash in Euros.
VIXY, baby. VIXY. UVXY is also interesting, but it's leveraged and might not be able to roll some of its positions if other groups start unloading their short term futures contracts.
With that said, I put 3% of client money into UVXY today. We shall see
Damn PRU has made me an absolute killing I bought it at $7 and haven't sold a share. Closed above $64 today. They got hammered during the credit crisis even though their fundamentals were very sound and had billions of cash on hand with 350m exposure to subprime. 350 out of $500B portfolio.
I'm gonna throw some cash in Euros. The Greek bailout, though disorderly, has avoided a default and possible contagion which plagued the Euro the past year. Although the numbers from the EU aren't great they aren't as dire as predicted. Sometimes expectations need to be managed (right Wellman?). The EURO gained .51% today despite a slow start.
I'm finally I'm not sleeping all day and can get back to making money.
You couldn't have bought PRU at $7. Did you mean $17?
Sorry typo. It was just over 17. I think it bottomed under 17.
It peaked over $100, I'm not sure it will get to that level in the near future but I'm holding it, not going to add to the position.
Last edited by Caturday; 03-19-2012 at 09:20 PM.
LGF STILL MAKING A FUCKING KILLING...
Hunger Games hasn't even opened yet, has it? It's being called the best sci fi movie since Matrix. I think it's a 4 part series as well.
Yeah, bought some LGF a few weeks ago. May have already missed the big run, although bought at $13.52/share, so could sell now for a 12% or so bump. Not bad. How high does it go?
Good news in housing today, mortgage rates up. China weighing on the markets.
I bought The Hartford (HIG) today at 21.70. John Paulson is long this stock and if they divest their non life insurance business as Paulson wants and as other insurers have done in the past, I think the stock will surge. If they follow the Pru model they could use the cash to build the retirement business, particularly with annuities. Pru remains strong The life insurers can count on growing business in Asia and a regular stream of premiums.
AAPL's run has made my portfolio jump a laughable amount this year. I'm wondering if it's hit it's peak or if I should hold.
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