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Thread: Investment Thread - For all your money needs

  1. #321
    TD or Schwab. $4 extra for a trade is nothing and you get a lot of extras as far as research, podcasts, charts, etc...

    Fidelity is good, but TD and Schwab are at the top as far as I'm concerned...

  2. #322
    So...things aren't going so well. Correction or a longer term issue?

  3. #323
    Quote Originally Posted by HuskyDeac View Post
    So...things aren't going so well. Correction or a longer term issue?
    Feels like a long overdue correction.

  4. #324
    Quote Originally Posted by HuskyDeac View Post
    So...things aren't going so well. Correction or a longer term issue?
    Both.

    ETA: There's no real growth. None. Exorbitant spending, huge debts, fake Central Banking tendencies/tactics and limited resources to fix it all.

    With that said, there are still some excellent areas to explore and I think we'll be fine over time, but we are playing with fire at the moment.

    Joseph Stiglitz and those guys at MIT are right. If we don't start fixing some of our problems right now, like yesterday, in 7-10 years we're going to be staring into a very deep abyss. It's the era of bubble capitalism...
    Last edited by SkyDivingDeacon; 04-23-2012 at 01:29 PM.

  5. #325
    Corporate earnings are growing at an impressive clip, probably because the multinationals are profiting on foreign investments. Estimates for S&P 500 corporate earnings are through the roof for 2012 - I'd be shocked if they are actually hit. Stock markets seem fairly priced on earnings and I think the current correction is short-term and we'll see higher highs this spring/summer. But I'm pretty convinced that Europe and China slowdowns will result in zero GDP growth in the US or a recession in the next year or two. Personally, any stocks I'm buying right now are defensive and I'm watching for a tough market in late 2012.

  6. #326
    Quote Originally Posted by JGDeac View Post
    Corporate earnings are growing at an impressive clip, probably because the multinationals are profiting on foreign investments. Estimates for S&P 500 corporate earnings are through the roof for 2012 - I'd be shocked if they are actually hit. Stock markets seem fairly priced on earnings and I think the current correction is short-term and we'll see higher highs this spring/summer. But I'm pretty convinced that Europe and China slowdowns will result in zero GDP growth in the US or a recession in the next year or two. Personally, any stocks I'm buying right now are defensive and I'm watching for a tough market in late 2012.
    Everybody is entitled to their own opinion, but I do not agree with most of this:

    There is a big difference when weighing/looking at earnings versus profit(s).

    Multinationals are profiting on a devalued dollar and near zero interest rates.

    I do not think stocks are fairly priced right now on earnings or many other factors.

    We're not yet in a correction, but we're heading towards one, and yes it should be a short-term correction. However, it will be one based on longer term issues that we still haven't been able to fix for what is now three years in the making.

    No way we see higher highs this spring/summer.

    Europe and China will not create zero GDP growth in the US in the next year or two.

    I do not see a tough market in late 2012. By that point, it should be oversold based on how much pressure is weighing on equities at the moment. I see a tough market in the second and third quarter in almost the same fashion as last year.

    What is a defensive stock, exactly? I used to think I knew what that meant, but now I don't think I do. Could you give me an example?
    Last edited by SkyDivingDeacon; 04-23-2012 at 03:37 PM.

  7. #327
    I know this isn't investment advice, but thought some in this thread may be interested. Benjamin Robert Williamson, Jr., a prominent NY investor and WFU-Babcock alum, was found dead this weekend at Figure 8 Island.

    http://www.starnewsonline.com/articl...eath-continues

  8. #328
    Quote Originally Posted by SkyDivingDeacon View Post
    Everybody is entitled to their own opinion, but I do not agree with most of this:

    There is a big difference when weighing/looking at earnings versus profit(s).

    Multinationals are profiting on a devalued dollar and near zero interest rates.

    I do not think stocks are fairly priced right now on earnings or many other factors.

    We're not yet in a correction, but we're heading towards one, and yes it should be a short-term correction. However, it will be one based on longer term issues that we still haven't been able to fix for what is now three years in the making.

    No way we see higher highs this spring/summer.

    Europe and China will not create zero GDP growth in the US in the next year or two.

    I do not see a tough market in late 2012. By that point, it should be oversold based on how much pressure is weighing on equities at the moment. I see a tough market in the second and third quarter in almost the same fashion as last year.

    What is a defensive stock, exactly? I used to think I knew what that meant, but now I don't think I do. Could you give me an example?
    So you don't think we'll see higher highs but we're not currently in a correction? We're only 4% from recent highs.

    What do you think will trigger a correction and how low does it have to go for equities to be oversold? Do you think stocks will go down 30-40% without the US experiencing another recession?

    Outside of my retirement accounts, the only positions I've been adding to for the last six months have been IDU (utilities), FDO (Family Dollar), and AGNC (mortgage reit). I suspect your point is that they will lose value if the broader market loses value. I don't disagree with that but I expect them to not get hit as hard, especially due to the dividends they will accrue. They all performed ok in the second half of 2011 so I'd expect the same if we have a similar market in late 2012.

  9. #329
    Quote Originally Posted by JGDeac View Post
    So you don't think we'll see higher highs but we're not currently in a correction? We're only 4% from recent highs.

    What do you think will trigger a correction and how low does it have to go for equities to be oversold? Do you think stocks will go down 30-40% without the US experiencing another recession?

    Outside of my retirement accounts, the only positions I've been adding to for the last six months have been IDU (utilities), FDO (Family Dollar), and AGNC (mortgage reit). I suspect your point is that they will lose value if the broader market loses value. I don't disagree with that but I expect them to not get hit as hard, especially due to the dividends they will accrue. They all performed ok in the second half of 2011 so I'd expect the same if we have a similar market in late 2012.
    My definition of a correction is probably different than what people think of when they think 'correction.' I take into account things like MACD and Relative Strength Index to determine corrections, their severity and how oversold or overbought an individual equity or certain index may be at any given time. Those are only a few and neither are perfect, but they're worth understanding.

    I have no idea what will trigger the correction. It could be about 100 different things. I do know, though, that option writers are not stupid and options (across the board) are implying that there is significant risk over the next 120 days. Enough risk that you could see equities sell off in the 20-25% range, if not more. And a recession to me is a true recession; two consecutive quarters of of real GDP decline. So in six months do I think we'll see a 30-40% correction? No. Will we if we fall into another recession? Sure, maybe. But I don't think the US is at risk of slipping back into a recession

    I don't particularly care for utilities right now and haven't for about six months. AGNC is a great one, but it will turn south if we have a spike in interest rates or if there's some rumblings with the restructuring of Fannie and Freddie (both of which are highly unlikely for the foreseeable future).

    Good luck. Let's resurface once some of these September Puts of mine expire...

  10. #330
    AAPL up over 7% after hours as their earnings far outperformed expectations.

  11. #331
    Quote Originally Posted by HuskyDeac View Post
    AAPL up over 7% after hours as their earnings far outperformed expectations.
    Love AAPL. There's no end in sight for where their growth could head. Luckily, it's been in client accounts for the last 16 months or so and I still think it's a $1K stock.

  12. #332
    Curious as to what everyone's doing right now. Hesitant to sink any more into the market at this moment.

  13. #333
    Quote Originally Posted by IAppreciateIt View Post
    Curious as to what everyone's doing right now. Hesitant to sink any more into the market at this moment.
    I sold out of everything about 10 days ago after AAPL spiked and started to fall back. Short term I'm playing around with EPV with the Euro dropping as it is.

  14. #334
    I am holding steady in mostly cash right now. I just can't see the market breaking from the 12,750-13120 range right now and I don't know how to make money in the market when stocks stay in such a tight range.

  15. #335
    I moved to 20% cash a few weeks ago. Still dollar cost averaging a little bit here and there. Waiting to reinvest my cash when timing is right. Anyone know when that will be?

  16. #336
    Quote Originally Posted by ATLDeac View Post
    I moved to 20% cash a few weeks ago. Still dollar cost averaging a little bit here and there. Waiting to reinvest my cash when timing is right. Anyone know when that will be?
    If you have a good investment you're looking at, today is as good a day as any. That goes for most days.

  17. #337
    Stocks had large sell-offs in April 2010 and May 2011 so I wouldn't be shocked if we've already seen the highs for this calendar year. I think there are more risks to the downside than up, but I'm not selling anything yet and am nibbling at some defensive sectors. Commodities are selling-off and gas prices are going down so Bernanke could probably get away with a QE3 announcement soon which could give the markets one more good run for the year.

  18. #338
    Quote Originally Posted by JGDeac View Post
    Stocks had large sell-offs in April 2010 and May 2011 so I wouldn't be shocked if we've already seen the highs for this calendar year. I think there are more risks to the downside than up, but I'm not selling anything yet and am nibbling at some defensive sectors. Commodities are selling-off and gas prices are going down so Bernanke could probably get away with a QE3 announcement soon which could give the markets one more good run for the year.
    Ben's hands are tied..The jobs number is at a very interesting tipping point regarding more QE. The 100-200k added is poor, but doesn't justify QE. With the election coming, I think that Ben can't do anything. I think that corporate profits have peaked for the year. CSCO out tonight saying Southern Europe is now dragging down Northern Europe (not good). Lately the mkt has been sell the rallies, not buy the dips.

    In terms of AAPL, they have had the best two qtrs in a row that I have ever seen in my investing career. Having said that, the stock is now lower than when it reported. Not a great sign for any stock right now.

  19. #339
    EPV up 3.5% after hours on top of 9% in the past 5 days. If you think the Euro will continue to drop, it's a great but volatile play.

  20. #340
    Quote Originally Posted by SkyDivingDeacon View Post
    Wouldn't put a dime into either choice right now. Unless of course it was AAPL, or a few others. On the whole though, almost every equity fund or stock that I have seen or follow is substantially overbought and has very weak technicals and lots of pressure on their fundamentals (as hinted to last week and the week before). I'd sit on the sidelines unless you want to make a play on VIX shooting through the roof or this market of ours having a large sell-off over the coming quarter. Other than that, I would sit very tight and be elated to earn 0% in a bank account than lose 25-30% in what I see to be a very shaky equity market.
    One month later and I'm still in this position above. Option contracts on VIX and about three-four leveraged funds like EPV represent close to 30% of client assets.

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