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Investment Thread - For all your money needs

I went in on AAPL at the close today at 450. Hope I don't regret that decision. Hard to believe a company with a loyal fanbase like they have, and 10B in cash won't come out with something else that is a must have. Not to mention China is all over Apple products right now. Time will tell.
 
I'm waiting for $400 before I jump in again, and I expect we will see that this quarter.

Until then, I have no idea where to put my money. Is NFLX too high? Is RIMM too speculative? I am eying AIG and PRE at this point for safer plays. I still have a big position in AMZN for a growth stock.
 
chester1994 said:
The momentum investors and growth funds are exiting apple...Until they announce a new product/merger (twitter,NFLX,Spotify) it will be in the hands of value investors (See Microsoft value trap). Holding 1/3 of your market cap in cash is not a good business practice. Many felt that Tim Cook came across as extremely arrogant on the call by not giving forward guidance. This stock is prob dead money till the next report. The money from Apple is going into names like NFLX, FB, and Google.
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Yeah, their conference call did not go anything to calm investors, especially when they said their guidance numbers were no longer low estimates. Short term, a stock buyback or a dividend hike could bring in more buying, but I don't see Cook going for that. AAPL will probably be dead money until they put together another knockout quarter or come out with something that is a must have.
 
RIMM scares me. They are still as poorly run as ever and their new phone OS offers nothing very intriguing.
 
TWDeac said:
RIMM scares me. They are still as poorly run as ever and their new phone OS offers nothing very intriguing.
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Their rise is purely based on speculation at this point - they have a user base. I assume their value really lies in their takeover potential. If Lenovo or someone comes along and pays $40/share for them, then it becomes a stupidly good investment to make. I am not sure I have the balls to jump into that though knowing it could go bankrupt if BB10 ends up being a flop.
 
The market is currently pricing AAPL as if it will never increase earnings again. I find that overly pessimistic. I bought some a while ago at $550 which was a mistake. However, at $450ish, I don't think you can go wrong as the worst case scenario is pretty much priced in. I bought some more so my average basis is $511 now. Analysts are "slashing price targets" to .... around $600? That's still a 30%+ upswing from current levels. How is that not still a screaming buy?
 
Ellen Cleghorne said:
FB is down to 18.31 a share...surely there is a point to jump in with a little mad money, right?
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efff, should have jumped in. they've regained almost all of their value pretty much under the radar.
 
OliveGardenDeac said:
The market is currently pricing AAPL as if it will never increase earnings again. I find that overly pessimistic. I bought some a while ago at $550 which was a mistake. However, at $450ish, I don't think you can go wrong as the worst case scenario is pretty much priced in. I bought some more so my average basis is $511 now. Analysts are "slashing price targets" to .... around $600? That's still a 30%+ upswing from current levels. How is that not still a screaming buy?
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It's a buy but it's going even lower. Down to $442 now. I see it touching $400 eventually. Then it will be a huge buy. The markets have no faith in Tim Cook and they're expecting things to worsen under his tenure. Apple will have to show they can do something else besides painting the iPhone a different color or giving things a retina screen before this will be anything other than dead money.


Sent from my iPhone
 
greekdeac2011 said:
It's a buy but it's going even lower. Down to $442 now. I see it touching $400 eventually. Then it will be a huge buy. The markets have no faith in Tim Cook and they're expecting things to worsen under his tenure. Apple will have to show they can do something else besides painting the iPhone a different color or giving things a retina screen before this will be anything other than dead money.


Sent from my iPhone
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You very well may be right. I don't try to predict the short term. I just know it's a good long term buy at any price under $500, so I'm gonna continue to load up right now. If it goes to $400, I'm taking out a home equity loan to triple down.
 
bmoneydeac said:
efff, should have jumped in. they've regained almost all of their value pretty much under the radar.
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Yea, but under what reason? I'm considering shorting it now. Where is their growth potential to justify the massive P/E? It's definitely not in number of users and the site is already cluttered with ads. Facebook phone rumor is dead too. Seems like social media bubble is ready to pop in the next couple of years to me...
 
oh, no reason at all. just gambling, really. i figured that people's emotions drove the price down way too far. defs not a long term play. shorting it now sounds like a good idea.
 
I may be in idiot, but I jumped back into AAPL today at $449. The stock bounced hard off the $435 level twice, so I am thinking we hit bottom short term. Charts say the next level is $461. I am not sure if I will hold it long though. I am still afraid of the stock, although the press has gotten better recently. The stock is down 15% in a week and it isn't like AAPL is about to go under. It has to rally.
 
greekdeac2011 said:
I may be in idiot, but I jumped back into AAPL today at $449. The stock bounced hard off the $435 level twice, so I am thinking we hit bottom short term. Charts say the next level is $461. I am not sure if I will hold it long though. I am still afraid of the stock, although the press has gotten better recently. The stock is down 15% in a week and it isn't like AAPL is about to go under. It has to rally.
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Yea I'm betting heavily on that. I've got 79 shares total now with a $511 average basis which is the majority of my non-retirement portfolio... probably should have diversified more but I like Buffett's quote, “Keep all your eggs in one basket, but watch that basket closely.”
 
Sure wish I'd bought 10,000 rather than 500 shares of KKD at 3.50.

Oh well.

AAPL...yep, looks like a buy these days.
 
OliveGardenDeac said:
You very well may be right. I don't try to predict the short term. I just know it's a good long term buy at any price under $500, so I'm gonna continue to load up right now. If it goes to $400, I'm taking out a home equity loan to triple down.
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you seem like a pretty smart dude, but that is a very bad idea
 
buckets said:
you seem like a pretty smart dude, but that is a very bad idea
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Well I was exaggerating as that's not even possible given that my HELOC is still maxed & I only have a bit over 10% equity, but I do feel that it is massively undervalued at current levels. It trades at lower multiples than Walmart, McDonalds, and even Dell and HP. Do people really think Apple has less room for growth than these companies? I get that they have tougher competition and margins are falling, but they still have a shitton of milking to do out of current products before they saturate the potential even if they don't come out with the next big thing IMO.
 
OliveGardenDeac said:
Well I was exaggerating as that's not even possible given that my HELOC is still maxed & I only have a bit over 10% equity, but I do feel that it is massively undervalued at current levels. It trades at lower multiples than Walmart, McDonalds, and even Dell and HP. Do people really think Apple has less room for growth than these companies? I get that they have tougher competition and margins are falling, but they still have a shitton of milking to do out of current products before they saturate the potential even if they don't come out with the next big thing IMO.
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right. but in buffett's case, he has active control over his basket. i can't imagine putting all my eggs into the basket of an investment where i have relatively no visibility outside of publicly available information. its really an wild ass guess.
 
Amazon's stock continues to amaze me. I have owned it since $220, almost sold today before earnings. They missed revenue, EPS, and issued a low guidance and the stock is up 10% in AH trading.
 
any of you geniuses know what enterprise value is? multiples of earnings is an easily fudgeable stat.
 
Does anyone on this thread use t/a (technical analysis) or as per the previous posts, most seem to use primarily fundamentals in their investing.
 
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