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Investment Thread - For all your money needs

You might be right. I hope it's not before the end of next week because I finally sacked up at the beginning of the year and bought an option call that is now in the money.
 
So what are people trading for 2021? I'm looking into ammo, oil, airlines, soy and need to look at ways to get into marijuana and shrooms.
 
So what are people trading for 2021? I'm looking into ammo, oil, airlines, soy and need to look at ways to get into marijuana and shrooms.

All I'll say on Airlines is that it seems like a good trade on things getting back to normal until you dig into a few things:

Most (profitable) travel is business-related and not coming back anytime soon.
The domestic airlines have received a lot of government aid and have also issued a ton of debt/equity... Even if things get back to "normal", the stocks should be worth significantly less than they were pre-COVID.

I would avoid the space like the plague. I do own CPA in Latin America and I think you could look at RYAAY in Europe, but the domestic guys are largely fucked over the next few years. So you could make a short term trade if you feel compelled... But you'd have to be nimble.

***Also, the CDC is going to come out soon and require US citizens to get a negative PCR test result within 72 hours of boarding a flight to return to the US. That is going to KILL travel to Mexico and the Caribbean over the next few months (at least). Can you imagine your return to the US being dependent on being able to find (and pay for) a test in a foreign country for everyone in your family and then also count on a result being available in time for your flight? That's especially bad for JBLU & SAVE.
 
All I'll say on Airlines is that it seems like a good trade on things getting back to normal until you dig into a few things:

Most (profitable) travel is business-related and not coming back anytime soon.
The domestic airlines have received a lot of government aid and have also issued a ton of debt/equity... Even if things get back to "normal", the stocks should be worth significantly less than they were pre-COVID.

I would avoid the space like the plague. I do own CPA in Latin America and I think you could look at RYAAY in Europe, but the domestic guys are largely fucked over the next few years. So you could make a short term trade if you feel compelled... But you'd have to be nimble.

***Also, the CDC is going to come out soon and require US citizens to get a negative PCR test result within 72 hours of boarding a flight to return to the US. That is going to KILL travel to Mexico and the Caribbean over the next few months (at least). Can you imagine your return to the US being dependent on being able to find (and pay for) a test in a foreign country for everyone in your family and then also count on a result being available in time for your flight? That's especially bad for JBLU & SAVE.

I agree wholeheartedly.

I've said I'm cash gang pretty much until the pandemic is "over." I'm going to/have missed the boat on a shitload of stuff - but I'm hopeful that I also won't get put over a barrel.

I know this makes me a bear, but I just can't help it. If this goes on for another six months, I probably just dump my money into 100% real estate.
 
I've been buying Utilities. They aren't exciting, but they are at very low valuations relative to the overall market and should act as somewhat of a safe haven (meaning down less than everything else) if this all goes to shit.

There is also the ESG aspect of it for the ones that are shifting toward becoming more environmentally friendly.

Have owned NEE for a long time... Recently bought PCG & D.
 
I'll preface this by saying that approximately 5% of my investments are in stocks that I pick, because I'm a complete amateur and would rather buy mutual funds. But the stocks that I'm holding for the long-haul are Visa and Wal-Mart. Visa because no one is using cash. Wal-Mart because they'll be one of very few Amazon competitors into the future.

ETA: we're also holding more cash at the moment than we ever have. I'm waiting to see how this plays out. If the next few months go smoothly and the vaccine is working, we'll go all in.
 
So what are people trading for 2021? I'm looking into ammo, oil, airlines, soy and need to look at ways to get into marijuana and shrooms.

I played marijuana wrong...I hit it right after it was legalized in Canada, so I missed out on the ride up...And then the stocks sunk...A few reverse splits later and bad sales numbers and I'm down roughly 40% on my pot stocks.

My advice would be to play the MJ (ETF) rather than individual stocks. The ETF is on a bit of a heater due to the dems taking the senate...I think a good entry point would be around $15. It also pays a dividend. If I had it to do over, I never would have gotten into the individual stocks. Just my amateur opinion.

I've been watching shrooms stocks for the last few months. I watched one (MMEDF) climb from $.80 to $4.00 and I sat on the sidelines...It's back down to $3...Hoping it pulls back more and I might take out a small position.
 
Thanks for the takes all. I'm mostly cash but always looking for areas that might provide some opportunity.

No high hopes for the market this year as I think it still hasn't corrected from 2020 and inflation will become a growing issue. Trying to focus on a few industries that seem to have potential with a refocus on government spending, legal changes, etc.

Airlines I could see going either way, at least with the larger carriers. They're too big and provide too many jobs for the government to let them fail. They're also one of few industries that actually took the hit they probably deserved in terms of value. That said, I agree that their numbers won't jump back immediately, especially for domestic flights. I also think any future aid will include restrictions on things like stock buybacks, so it may curtail the recovery.

Marijuana and shrooms seem like markets that "should" have some viable options moving forward rather than the huge number of start up, fly by night operations from the big bubble 5 or 6 years ago.

I'd probably play around with cryptocurrencies if they continue the drop from today. It feels like the current run has to come to an end soon, though whether it plummets again or finds a higher floor than last time, who knows.
 
Thanks for the takes all. I'm mostly cash but always looking for areas that might provide some opportunity.

No high hopes for the market this year as I think it still hasn't corrected from 2020 and inflation will become a growing issue. Trying to focus on a few industries that seem to have potential with a refocus on government spending, legal changes, etc.

Airlines I could see going either way, at least with the larger carriers. They're too big and provide too many jobs for the government to let them fail. They're also one of few industries that actually took the hit they probably deserved in terms of value. That said, I agree that their numbers won't jump back immediately, especially for domestic flights. I also think any future aid will include restrictions on things like stock buybacks, so it may curtail the recovery.

Marijuana and shrooms seem like markets that "should" have some viable options moving forward rather than the huge number of start up, fly by night operations from the big bubble 5 or 6 years ago.

I'd probably play around with cryptocurrencies if they continue the drop from today. It feels like the current run has to come to an end soon, though whether it plummets again or finds a higher floor than last time, who knows.

I think Crypto will recover from this dip. My brother asked me this morning what he should do with 10k cash in his account, I told him to buy 10 ETH and see if it bounces back. I think that was at $980.00 when he bought.
 
Airlines I could see going either way, at least with the larger carriers. They're too big and provide too many jobs for the government to let them fail. They're also one of few industries that actually took the hit they probably deserved in terms of value. That said, I agree that their numbers won't jump back immediately, especially for domestic flights. I also think any future aid will include restrictions on things like stock buybacks, so it may curtail the recovery.

Doesn't matter how big the Airlines are... They've gone bankrupt before. Often. That doesn't mean a particular carrier will go away, it just means your stock will be worth dogshit. The alternative (which I don't think will happen) is that they become nationalized (again)... Also not good for shareholders.

The biggest issue w/ Airlines in this pandemic is that they haven't really done any serious restructuring... They are operating as though they expect demand to come right back and they want to be ready for it. They haven't taken any pain.

FWIW, I'm short AAL and expect them to declare bankruptcy once they realize they are fucked (later this year or sometime in '22). At least then they'll be able to do the restucturing they need.
 
BILI earning are reported this week. Could be a nice run up. Not sure I would hold through the release unless you are thinking more long term.

Depends a lot on Trump's twitter activity....

edit: I can't see making any real money off a $600 investment outside of way OTM option play.....

I posted that in August of 2020. BILI has been on fire since. I own it in size at a cost of $14.
 
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I think Crypto will recover from this dip. My brother asked me this morning what he should do with 10k cash in his account, I told him to buy 10 ETH and see if it bounces back. I think that was at $980.00 when he bought.

ETH 1250 - was less than a thousand a week ago and still 150 off its all time high
DOT 18 - was 6 a month ago
LINK 21 - was 11 a month ago
AAVE 190 - was 40 2-3 months ago
BTC 36K - down from a high of 42K
YFI 34K - was 22K a month ago

Crypto is one space that offers big returns right now. Buy and put in stop losses is a pretty easy play. Bump them up if one you buy has run. Insane gains since last March. Will be curious how Biden approaches regulation for the space.
 
ETH 1250 - was less than a thousand a week ago and still 150 off its all time high
DOT 18 - was 6 a month ago
LINK 21 - was 11 a month ago
AAVE 190 - was 40 2-3 months ago
BTC 36K - down from a high of 42K
YFI 34K - was 22K a month ago

Crypto is one space that offers big returns right now. Buy and put in stop losses is a pretty easy play. Bump them up if one you buy has run. Insane gains since last March. Will be curious how Biden approaches regulation for the space.

The sheer amount of money given out by:

1) Changing PPP from taxable income to non-taxable income
2) PPP round 2
3) Tripling the Employee Retention Credit and not making it be either/or with PPP
4) $2,000 checks

Is going to just explode every asset class. Not sure everyone realizes just how much money was just given to anyone who owns a business.
 
I think Crypto will recover from this dip. My brother asked me this morning what he should do with 10k cash in his account, I told him to buy 10 ETH and see if it bounces back. I think that was at $980.00 when he bought.

45% gain since this post, not terrible.
 
The sheer amount of money given out by:

1) Changing PPP from taxable income to non-taxable income
2) PPP round 2
3) Tripling the Employee Retention Credit and not making it be either/or with PPP
4) $2,000 checks

Is going to just explode every asset class. Not sure everyone realizes just how much money was just given to anyone who owns a business.

I can't understand it. I've been trying to understand it for like two months now (it's been rumbling around for awhile).

Nearly every financial post that I gain value from is a discussion of inflation/deflation. Huge props to ATS for his insight.

If anyone has digested content about what inflation/deflation look like in the next few months, next year, and next five years, please let me know. I'm fucking terrified of it.

My best guess at this point is that, in the near future, we see inflationary bubbles in various sectors of the economy. Some of which get pretty goddamned absurd at their peaks. Over time, as those bubbles percolate or pop, it leads to a more even (but still fairly severe) increase in inflation. At some point, the fed starts to try to get a handle on it (this could be a year or more from now - almost certainly at least a year), and if they aren't super careful about it, we get totally assfucked into the ground by deflation that, at first, mirrors the inflationary bubbles of today/the near future, and then becomes more evenly distributed throughout the economy.

Seriously - some one break down the Keynesian or whatever the hell else economics that keep the stock market this hot for this long without reckoning with the poison cash that's being injected into the economy.
 
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