Screamindemon3
Well-known member
You might be right. I hope it's not before the end of next week because I finally sacked up at the beginning of the year and bought an option call that is now in the money.
sun came up this morning
sun came up this morning
So what are people trading for 2021? I'm looking into ammo, oil, airlines, soy and need to look at ways to get into marijuana and shrooms.
All I'll say on Airlines is that it seems like a good trade on things getting back to normal until you dig into a few things:
Most (profitable) travel is business-related and not coming back anytime soon.
The domestic airlines have received a lot of government aid and have also issued a ton of debt/equity... Even if things get back to "normal", the stocks should be worth significantly less than they were pre-COVID.
I would avoid the space like the plague. I do own CPA in Latin America and I think you could look at RYAAY in Europe, but the domestic guys are largely fucked over the next few years. So you could make a short term trade if you feel compelled... But you'd have to be nimble.
***Also, the CDC is going to come out soon and require US citizens to get a negative PCR test result within 72 hours of boarding a flight to return to the US. That is going to KILL travel to Mexico and the Caribbean over the next few months (at least). Can you imagine your return to the US being dependent on being able to find (and pay for) a test in a foreign country for everyone in your family and then also count on a result being available in time for your flight? That's especially bad for JBLU & SAVE.
So what are people trading for 2021? I'm looking into ammo, oil, airlines, soy and need to look at ways to get into marijuana and shrooms.
Thanks for the takes all. I'm mostly cash but always looking for areas that might provide some opportunity.
No high hopes for the market this year as I think it still hasn't corrected from 2020 and inflation will become a growing issue. Trying to focus on a few industries that seem to have potential with a refocus on government spending, legal changes, etc.
Airlines I could see going either way, at least with the larger carriers. They're too big and provide too many jobs for the government to let them fail. They're also one of few industries that actually took the hit they probably deserved in terms of value. That said, I agree that their numbers won't jump back immediately, especially for domestic flights. I also think any future aid will include restrictions on things like stock buybacks, so it may curtail the recovery.
Marijuana and shrooms seem like markets that "should" have some viable options moving forward rather than the huge number of start up, fly by night operations from the big bubble 5 or 6 years ago.
I'd probably play around with cryptocurrencies if they continue the drop from today. It feels like the current run has to come to an end soon, though whether it plummets again or finds a higher floor than last time, who knows.
Airlines I could see going either way, at least with the larger carriers. They're too big and provide too many jobs for the government to let them fail. They're also one of few industries that actually took the hit they probably deserved in terms of value. That said, I agree that their numbers won't jump back immediately, especially for domestic flights. I also think any future aid will include restrictions on things like stock buybacks, so it may curtail the recovery.
AAL with a quick 5% jump this morning
BILI earning are reported this week. Could be a nice run up. Not sure I would hold through the release unless you are thinking more long term.
Depends a lot on Trump's twitter activity....
edit: I can't see making any real money off a $600 investment outside of way OTM option play.....
I think Crypto will recover from this dip. My brother asked me this morning what he should do with 10k cash in his account, I told him to buy 10 ETH and see if it bounces back. I think that was at $980.00 when he bought.
ETH 1250 - was less than a thousand a week ago and still 150 off its all time high
DOT 18 - was 6 a month ago
LINK 21 - was 11 a month ago
AAVE 190 - was 40 2-3 months ago
BTC 36K - down from a high of 42K
YFI 34K - was 22K a month ago
Crypto is one space that offers big returns right now. Buy and put in stop losses is a pretty easy play. Bump them up if one you buy has run. Insane gains since last March. Will be curious how Biden approaches regulation for the space.
I think Crypto will recover from this dip. My brother asked me this morning what he should do with 10k cash in his account, I told him to buy 10 ETH and see if it bounces back. I think that was at $980.00 when he bought.
The sheer amount of money given out by:
1) Changing PPP from taxable income to non-taxable income
2) PPP round 2
3) Tripling the Employee Retention Credit and not making it be either/or with PPP
4) $2,000 checks
Is going to just explode every asset class. Not sure everyone realizes just how much money was just given to anyone who owns a business.