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Investment Thread - For all your money needs

DeacsATS said:
I fundamentally disagree with this, but it's obviously 100% up for debate.

1- Explosion of technology means the well-capitalized institutional money managers and quant funds have almost unlimited computing power at very low cost. Sure, most everybody has access to technology... But these entities are doing it with way more money and a lot more talent.
2- Meh... It's still a fraction of the market. But as you saw w/ GME, if concentrated in certain areas, it can have a huge impact.
3- SPACs aren't new. And most of them are dogshit. There are a few that I like, but even those are growth bets.

Not trying to start an argument... Just presenting another viewpoint.
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I could also be a "don't have to run faster than the bear" thing. Yes, a hedge fund is always going to beat me. But I can beat Joe Beaver managing his 401k.

The hedge fund is going to smoke Joe Beaver (and me), but if I can earn more from Joe Beaver than hedge fund takes from me, that's still a net gain.
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
I guess I lean more conservative on investing than most and don't really know dick-all, but it's a pretty well-worn adage that stock-picking is a sucker's game for retail investors

genuinely curious why you think it's different for you all

tryna black swan it or something?
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paper hands
 
DeacsATS said:
Not trying to start an argument....
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nah man, that's we're here!

Donkey Deac Doug said:
I could also be a "don't have to run faster than the bear" thing. Yes, a hedge fund is always going to beat me. But I can beat Joe Beaver managing his 401k.

The hedge fund is going to smoke Joe Beaver (and me), but if I can earn more from Joe Beaver than hedge fund takes from me, that's still a net gain.
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you're not trying to beat Joe Beaver

you're trying to beat John Bogle
 
DeacsATS said:
I fundamentally disagree with this, but it's obviously 100% up for debate.

1- Explosion of technology means the well-capitalized institutional money managers and quant funds have almost unlimited computing power at very low cost. Sure, most everybody has access to technology... But these entities are doing it with way more money and a lot more talent.
2- Meh... It's still a fraction of the market. But as you saw w/ GME, if concentrated in certain areas, it can have a huge impact.
3- SPACs aren't new. And most of them are dogshit. There are a few that I like, but even those are growth bets.

Not trying to start an argument... Just presenting another viewpoint.
Click to expand...

i don't think i did a good job of explaining my point, but basically the explosion of technology into new sectors have introduced a lot of inefficiency in the market that even the best supercomputer can't capture anymore.

put another way, i think it became impossible to win in the market when supercomputers were basically just doing benjamin graham stuff in an automated way (even when i was in school in the 00s, they still talked about fundamental analysis and ratios like they were the most important things) -- and the computer are always going to win at that. and the institutional guys are still largely relying on that stuff.

the shift is that the computers aren't as good / can't be as good as they used to be. when i referred to the explosion of decentralized tech i was referring more to disruptive stuff in all sorts of industries that is fueled by all this venture money flowing around like crazy, which is in turn i suspect based on a bunch of tech reasons like how much easier distribution has gotten.

in the past, the big innovations largely came from established companies with huge r&d cash which has changed. the computer says that tesla has been overvalued based on all the input data. obviously they refine their models constantly, but i think it's getting way harder because the way companies are now valued has changed.

bad analogy: a computer will always been a human at chess. but if you slightly changed the rules of chess to introduce a bluffing aspect, it starts becoming possible to beat it.

anyway i'm not confident in any of that, it's more of a possible explanation of what i've been observing more than anything.
 
My growth is in the large alternative asset/private equity players and Alibaba. Also one of my big colleagues started a private equity firm in Milwaukee and I am invested in a roll up of 5g tower infrastructure companies into a major national player.
 
MARA all day cause my boy works there and it goes brrrr. It seems like it trades as leveraged crypto. So if BTC goes up 3%, it goes up 12%. Current #11 on WSB hashtags!
 
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ChrisL68 said:
My growth is in the large alternative asset/private equity players and Alibaba. Also one of my big colleagues started a private equity firm in Milwaukee and I am invested in a roll up of 5g tower infrastructure companies into a major national player.
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I worked in private equity a long time. They get a 1% fee for raising equity. 1% fee for placing debt. 2% annual fee. The whole financial world seems 100% geared towards just slowly fee'ing people to death.

Crypto - .5% fee to buy, .5% fee to sell on coinbase pro. It's over 1% on the regular coinbase platform. In their ideal world people would just buy and sell constantly, and they'd end up with it all. Although in comparing to 3% credit card fees I suppose it doesn't look too bad.
 
DeacsATS said:
But when I posted that I like TELL a few weeks ago, that falls into the high risk/reward category. I still like that one, by the way.
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See this is what I"m talking about....just bought 200 of this.

ChrisL68 said:
My growth is in the large alternative asset/private equity players and Alibaba. Also one of my big colleagues started a private equity firm in Milwaukee and I am invested in a roll up of 5g tower infrastructure companies into a major national player.
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Good to see tax people actually making it in PE!
 
stugotz said:
I worked in private equity a long time. They get a 1% fee for raising equity. 1% fee for placing debt. 2% annual fee. The whole financial world seems 100% geared towards just slowly fee'ing people to death.

Crypto - .5% fee to buy, .5% fee to sell on coinbase pro. It's over 1% on the regular coinbase platform. In their ideal world people would just buy and sell constantly, and they'd end up with it all. Although in comparing to 3% credit card fees I suppose it doesn't look too bad.
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This private active equity play they bought the company installed the management and are actively running their rollup strategy. I think this entire area is a huge growth area and it could be a huge winner.
 
A little off topic but didn't feel my question necessitated a new thread.

Thinking about opening a small business checking account online with BlueVine. Anyone had any experience with them or similar banks?
 
I had the opportunity to dump my AMC for 100% gain about six days ago. Got greedy. Now my calls are wedging my butt cheeks apart and just going HAM in a very bad way.

Pretty red out there, boys.
 
Donkey Deac Doug said:
I could also be a "don't have to run faster than the bear" thing. Yes, a hedge fund is always going to beat me. But I can beat Joe Beaver managing his 401k.

The hedge fund is going to smoke Joe Beaver (and me), but if I can earn more from Joe Beaver than hedge fund takes from me, that's still a net gain.
Click to expand...

Donkey Deac Doug said:
I had the opportunity to dump my AMC for 100% gain about six days ago. Got greedy. Now my calls are wedging my butt cheeks apart and just going HAM in a very bad way.

Pretty red out there, boys.
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hmm...
 
My KODK, PLTR, and CLOV lottery plays are looking BAD gentlemen.

Potential loss pr0n incoming
 
i held AMC for exactly one week and then realized WHAT THE FUCK AM I DOING invested in a movie theater that literally has no business
 
ConnorEl said:
I’m shocked that GME is back down to 40.
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diamond-hand.jpg
 
I was awarded options to purchase by employer pre-IPO and have a sell/exercise deadline in not so distant future. Is my understanding correct that if I opt to sell options I would get market value less cost of options and the transaction would be taxed as ordinary income, potentially pushing me to higher income bracket?

Alternatively, if I exercise I must front cost to purchase out of pocket and also pay tax short term taxes on that value, but then only pay capital gains on earnings when I sell assuming I hold for at least a year?
 
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