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Thread: Danny Manning Credibility Watch

  1. #181
    Rusty Larue

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    Quote Originally Posted by Why the Deac Not View Post
    If you would actually take the time to recall some of our "bubble" years under Odom instead of simply being a snarky dick, we were left out of the tourney despite being 4th in the ACC at least twice. Being on the "right side of the bubble" does not mean you'll get in. You can be a Top 50 team with a pretty respectable record and still miss the tourney. 2 or 3 out of every 5 years would be pretty good for a lot of teams. And considering we are a lot closer to 150th as opposed to 50th at the present time, I'd say that would be more than acceptable by Manning's 3rd year.

    A 20 year stretch of success obviously isn't a predictor of future results. Success in CBB is more than a math problem. But over the last 50 years, we've been bad to mediocre more than we've been very good.
    In the last 13 years, 44 teams ranked in Kenpom's top 40 have been left out of the tournament. Those teams all fell between 21-40. That's a little less than 3.5 a year. 20 of those teams were ranked between 35-40.

    So teams ranked in the 21-40 range had about an 83% chance of making the tournament (so 5 out of 6 years). Even if we consistently found ourselves at what you suggest is an attainable baseline, rarely finishing higher than that baseline (our past history and common sense make that unlikely) we would still have a 74% chance of making the tournament each year. (3 out of 4)

    This discussion isn't about where Manning is in his third year. It's about what's a realistic, attainable level of success for Wake Forest basketball.

    a 20 year stretch of being a top 20 program does not serve as a predictor that we will necessarily get back to a top 20 level. It does serve as an indicator that getting back to being a top 20 program is certainly an attainable goal.

    Your last statement applies to almost every program in the country, save maybe ten or so. Furthermore, what happened 50, 40 or even 30 years ago is clearly less relevant to assessing the future ceiling of the program than the last 20 years are.

  2. #182
    Rusty Larue

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    So basically if you think a baseline of Top 40 is a reasonable expectation, then you also believe that an expectation to make the NCAA tournament 3 out of every 4 years is also reasonable.

    Or you don't believe in math.

  3. #183
    Frederic Fuckin' Chopin Why the Deac Not's Avatar
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    I agree with your math and would love to make the tourney 3 out of every 4. Hell, Id be happy with an occasional NIT appearance if it meant we were building to something as opposed to spinning our wheels. I'm just not as apt to believe in our ability to recruit that consistently well over a longer term. Wake seems to have an annoying history of recruiting one really good class or finding that one transformative player (Griffin, Muggsy, RoRo, Chill, Duncan, CP3), tasting steady improvement, and then our wings always melt as we hit dizzying heights of success.

    Even during our 15 year run, we were very fortunate with Duncan as Odom's recruiting btwn '93 and '98 was very spotty. I would like to see more consistently solid recruiting more years than not similar to the '15 Class Danny just cemented. Do that for 4 years straight and look the hell out. Even J-Ho was kinda lucky as he was a one-man class from K'ville who nearly transferred. But spotty recruiting and early post-season flame outs did Odom in. At least he got us Darius, Craig & Josh before he was let go.
    Last edited by Why the Deac Not; 12-04-2014 at 09:48 PM.

  4. #184
    For anyone who even compares Danny Manning and Buzz should go fuck themselves.. Geez, give the man time, it's not like we have talent on this team.. Danny has the guys rebounding better, playing better defense and DM acts like he gives a shit(unlike that rat [name redacted]). Just dissapointed to see anyone comparing DM to that asshole [name redacted]... DM has a great recruiting class coming in next year and this thread should be deleted...

  5. #185
    Rusty Larue

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    Quote Originally Posted by Why the Deac Not View Post
    I agree with your math and would love to make the tourney 3 out of every 4. Hell, Id be happy with an occasional NIT appearance if it meant we were building to something as opposed to spinning our wheels. I'm just not as apt to believe in our ability to recruit that consistently well over a longer term. Wake seems to have an annoying history of recruiting one really good class or finding that one transformative player (Griffin, Muggsy, RoRo, Chill, Duncan, CP3), tasting steady improvement, and then our wings always melt as we hit dizzying heights of success.

    Even during our 15 year run, we were very fortunate with Duncan as Odom's recruiting btwn '93 and '98 was very spotty. I would like to see more consistently solid recruiting more years than not similar to the '15 Class Danny just cemented. Do that for 4 years straight and look the hell out. Even J-Ho was kinda lucky as he was a one-man class from K'ville who nearly transferred. But spotty recruiting and early post-season flame outs did Odom in. At least he got us Darius, Craig & Josh before he was let go.
    That's one thing that made the past 4 years so frustrating. We had actually built some momentum on the recruiting front. The 5 recruiting classes before bz got here each had All-ACC caliber players.

  6. #186
    I can't believe this thread exists. We all agree before the year how much of a project its going to be, then 8 games in a clown claims credibility is on the line for the new head coach. Are you serious?
    Mother So Dear '12

  7. #187
    Rusty Larue

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    I think a few of the culture warriors have been planning on pulling this shit since at least April.

  8. #188
    Scott "Rufio" Feather morrison2951's Avatar
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    DM said on his radio show tonight that he is optimistic about next season's three man Top 20 class to help us "to win every game." Despite our defensive woes he is still partial to a man defense to aid in a transition offense. The team is shooting 68% FT's "and those players on the team that are shooting them poorly know that they have to knock them down to help us to score when our shots are not falling."

    He's not all that pleased with "drawing the short stick" for the early conference road game at state but Stan emphasized that the Ark road game should have helped us prepare for the hostile crowd. Wake has not won at state since Chris Paul's winner in the Hodge nut punch game in 2005.

  9. #189
    Quote Originally Posted by RChildress107 View Post
    I think a few of the culture warriors have been planning on pulling this shit since at least April.
    Hell, I am a lurker not a culture warrior! Those that did support the previous "culture" must really like the culture of losing.

  10. #190
    Quote Originally Posted by redskins1 View Post
    For anyone who even compares Danny Manning and Buzz should go fuck themselves.. Geez, give the man time, it's not like we have talent on this team.. Danny has the guys rebounding better, playing better defense and DM acts like he gives a shit(unlike that rat [name redacted]). Just dissapointed to see anyone comparing DM to that asshole [name redacted]... DM has a great recruiting class coming in next year and this thread should be deleted...
    Yes

  11. #191
    Quote Originally Posted by Deacsfan27 View Post
    I can't believe this thread exists. We all agree before the year how much of a project its going to be, then 8 games in a clown claims credibility is on the line for the new head coach. Are you serious?
    Agree

  12. #192
    Quote Originally Posted by TheTwinAndreBen View Post
    Jesus enough with all the fucking Bzz and Dino talk. WTF is wrong with you people, you just love hand wringing? You guys are the same people that go to a whorehouse and pay $300 to have some chick kick you in the nuts with a high heel for an hour.

    College bball is all about talent these days. Actual coaching is probably at an all time low. Do we think fucking Calipari is one of the greatest Xs and Os guys of all time? Fuck no. But his combo of the Jedi mind trick, 5K handshakes and whatever else he has working on the recruiting trail has him at the top every year. Recruiting is like 80% of the game now.

    With that in mind, we have seen that DM can recruit, so we have to wait until he gets his players on the court. I know that this was also an argument morons used with Bzz but the difference is that Bzz never fucking signed anyone worth a shit. We have one (1) consensus Top 100 player on the roster right now, and he is pretty flawed. You need a stable of top 100 guys to finish in the top third of the ACC. We will have more top 100 players on the roster next year than we have had in the entire Bzz era. There is no way those guys arent going to be markedly better than the corndoggs running around this year.

    So lets stop kicking each other in the nuts and calm down. And for fuck's sake stop talking about Battle and fucking Dino.
    LMAO on the first paragraph . But don't knock it until you try it! I love the whole post. Amen .

  13. #193
    Frederic Fuckin' Chopin Why the Deac Not's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by morrison2951 View Post
    DM said on his radio show tonight that he is optimistic about next season's three man Top 20 class to help us "to win every game." Despite our defensive woes he is still partial to a man defense to aid in a transition offense. The team is shooting 68% FT's "and those players on the team that are shooting them poorly know that they have to knock them down to help us to score when our shots are not falling."

    He's not all that pleased with "drawing the short stick" for the early conference road game at state but Stan emphasized that the Ark road game should have helped us prepare for the hostile crowd. Wake has not won at state since Chris Paul's winner in the Hodge nut punch game in 2005.
    Yup, curse of the damn nut punch. Fuck Julius Hodge for all time. Hate that son of a bitch.

  14. #194
    Quote Originally Posted by RChildress107 View Post
    Lol at Deac83 still trying to pin [name redacted]'s failures on Dino. Nothing about Dino's time at Wake constitutes or resulted in a major downswing.

    I will give you credit for sticking to your guns.
    Uh, sure. Even if Dino got his 4th years unless he pulled a miracle with that team he'd be gone. Dino's entire post season success/improvement was based on Ish's last second 20ft runner.

    Skip said you need 3 NBA players on the roster to win in the NCAA's, Dino couldn't get out of the first round with them.

    Firing Dino was the right thing to do, but it was followed up by a stupid hire.

    The point is not to rehash Dino's years, but the fact that Skip's death put us on a path to hiring Bz. Since Skip died our recruiting has gone from mediocre to pitiful in the last 6 years. In both the Tacy and Skip situation we were not in a position to do full searches for coaches. The problem is that Wellman screwed up the next hire.

  15. #195
    Quote Originally Posted by Deacsfan27 View Post
    I can't believe this thread exists. We all agree before the year how much of a project its going to be, then 8 games in a clown claims credibility is on the line for the new head coach. Are you serious?
    Agreed.
    I can't tell if people start threads like this because they genuinely feel that way or just because they want to get some sh_t started and watch everyone react. Regardless, it's ridiculous.

    Some of you that live in this instant gratification world should have picked a different college if your not happy with revenue sports at WFU. I attended my first WF game in 1968 and have lived through some sh_tty-f_cking teams and coaches. You don't have the first clue. So, please spare us your Veruca Salt "I Want It Now" cry-baby crap!

    There! Is that the reaction that you were hoping for?!

  16. #196
    Dickie Hemric

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    People shouldn't expect Danny to be instantly successful, but Wake's shitty years decades ago isn't the reason why.
    Can't tell if serious, so apologies in advance if I missed the sarcasm.
    "It's now time to win."

  17. #197
    Frederic Fuckin' Chopin Why the Deac Not's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Deac83 View Post
    The point is not to rehash Dino's years, but the fact that Skip's death put us on a path to hiring Bz. Since Skip died our recruiting has gone from mediocre to pitiful in the last 6 years. In both the Tacy and Skip situation we were not in a position to do full searches for coaches. The problem is that Wellman screwed up the next hire.
    Ya Tacy really left Gene Hooks in a lurch w/ his sudden resignation eh? Wonder if we would have had a natural progression towards GDO if Tacy had just ridden out the decade and helped set Wake up for the transition? But those 4 dark Staak years really made the Odom era that much sweeter eh? Took it for granted while I was a student in the early/mid 90's but in retrospect it's the best BB ever played at Wake for a 6 year stretch ('91-'97). Skip came close but, aside from putting too much faith in CP2 staying that 3rd year, his recruiting was not all that great after 2005.

  18. #198
    Quote Originally Posted by Why the Deac Not View Post
    Ya Tacy really left Gene Hooks in a lurch w/ his sudden resignation eh? Wonder if we would have had a natural progression towards GDO if Tacy had just ridden out the decade and helped set Wake up for the transition? But those 4 dark Staak years really made the Odom era that much sweeter eh? Took it for granted while I was a student in the early/mid 90's but in retrospect it's the best BB ever played at Wake for a 6 year stretch ('91-'97). Skip came close but, aside from putting too much faith in CP2 staying that 3rd year, his recruiting was not all that great after 2005.
    Three of his commits after 2005 were first round picks.

  19. #199
    WFU offered Gary Williams. There was a pretty full search. Staak wasn't a fit for WFU but Tacy left him with nothing other than Mugsy. Then Staak signed Kitley and A Johnson in his first class . It didn't help that we still played in the old coliseum then. Staak was turning it around when he got canned . Wainwright had helped him sign Chris King and Tucker was transferring from Georgetown . The Joel was built, Odom signed Chill, Rodney, Tree Owens and we were back on our feet again . Tim sealed the deal.

  20. #200
    Frederic Fuckin' Chopin Why the Deac Not's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by texasdeac View Post
    Three of his commits after 2005 were first round picks.
    I misspoke, I meant the players we put on the court btwn 2006 and 2009, outside of the big 3 left quite a bit to be desired. Well, Ish turned out to be a pretty important player in '09/'10 but as usual, Wake lost the momentum again and things didn't quite pan out they way we hoped.

    Fact is, recruiting was not nearly as good as we thought outside of Aminu, Teague & JJ. And Aminu wasn't the type of guy who could do it alone. We didn't bring in enough help year to year...always putting our eggs in one or two big baskets.

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