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Danny Manning Credibility Watch

In the next 5 games I see 3 losses and 2 toss-ups. I think we will lose to UNC, Miami, and Duke and have toss-up games against NCSU and Syracuse. However, we could lose all 5 because the toss-up games are away and the ones at home look like murders row. Not looking good :cliffs:
 
ACCOffice said:
Good point. But he did get 21 wins in his third and final year there and left enough talent for 38 wins the 2 years after his departure.

Butler plays like you want a team to play.
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Manning won 21 his final year too and Tulsa won 43 the next two years.
 
RaleighTriad said:
In the next 5 games I see 3 losses and 2 toss-ups. I think we will lose to UNC, Miami, and Duke and have toss-up games against NCSU and Syracuse. However, we could lose all 5 because the toss-up games are away and the ones at home look like murders row. Not looking good :cliffs:
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Win expectancy is 2.04 over the next five games:

UNC 29%
Miami 59%
@ State 43%
@ Cuse 40%
Duke 33%

Then we get @BC and Tech, where we basically have to win both of those.
 
A couple of myths at least in my mind...

DM is an outstanding recruiter - I just don't see this at all because if you are a great recruiter you should be competing for a NCAA birth in year 3. He's maybe on par with Bizz but not even in the same zip code as GDO, Skip and Dino...hell even Tacy was better.

16-14 gets us to the NIT - I give us about a 10% chance with that record (i give us a 35% chance of actually achieving that record) since the NIT goes harder after the mid majors left out for their tournament.
 
Shake said:
A couple of myths at least in my mind...

DM is an outstanding recruiter - I just don't see this at all because if you are a great recruiter you should be competing for a NCAA birth in year 3. He's maybe on par with Bizz but not even in the same zip code as GDO, Skip and Dino...hell even Tacy was better.

16-14 gets us to the NIT - I give us about a 10% chance with that record (i give us a 35% chance of actually achieving that record) since the NIT goes harder after the mid majors left out for their tournament.
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I honestly don't see how some people thinking we are going to be a NCAAT team next year. What am I missing?
 
RaleighTriad said:
I honestly don't see how some people thinking we are going to be a NCAAT team next year. What am I missing?
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Our starting 5 will be NCAAT/top 20 caliber. Our bench however, unless something changes dramatically, will not be. We're likely going to need to get another Arians-like transfer to be a 6th man if Rich Wash isn't up for it. We literally just need some guys that can not blow the game for 5 minutes at a time while our starters get a breather. Lil Chill could definitely be that guy, as I think the talent is there, the game just needs to slow down for him.

Assuming Chaundee is as good as he appears to be, I think we will be significantly more balanced on both ends of the court having a guy like Chaundee at 2/3 instead of Wilbekin and Arians.
 
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I really think that smell is going to contribute next year. He was about 80 overall and a 4 star before he got injured and couldn't play summer ball this past summer.


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Deacsfan27 said:
Wake is doing exactly what has been expected of them so far this season, albeit in a curios manner towards the end of games (which is problematic).

They have won every expected game on KP and lost every game they were expected to lose. Still expected to go 16-14, 7-11, and if we beat UNC we are actually ahead of where we were projected to start ACC play.

It's definitely infuriating to continue to watch the way we lose, but we are still who we thought we were...a middle to bottom ACC team. We have the starting lineup to compete with just about anybody, but depth is a big problem, and it hits us right when you think it would---at the under 10 minute mark.

What I am most concerned about is what we do when we hit that mark. We panic, start chucking threes, and when they don't fall we let our offense dictate our defense (go under screens, fail to close out, fail to rebound defensively). That prevents us from getting Collins post touches, and right now it seems that we don't have the leadership on or off the court to correct that, which is definitely concerning.

I don't think Manning's demeanor on the sideline is problematic, as there are several coaches who are calm throughout the game but still manage to get their point across. Kids learn in different ways, and maybe he feels that these guys learn best through this type of teaching/coaching. I think it's a combination of inexperience on the court, as well as the bench. I definitely agree with the people who say that we should add an experienced head coach as a top assistant to help micromanage in games.
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Great post. Sums up my thoughts exactly.
 
CharlotteDeac1 said:
I really think that smell is going to contribute next year. He was about 80 overall and a 4 star before he got injured and couldn't play summer ball this past summer.


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New nick name for Melo?
 
Manning's recruiting is becoming more of a concern for me this year. How do you recruit two players that are so poor that they are not worthy of minutes in a 30 point win?

It may just be my poor recollection, but I don't think I recall ever seeing freshman go this deep into a season without seeing enough of them to have an opinion about their ability. Manning may have his reasons but if they are significantly behind our bad bench, they should not have been recruited. If they have some potential, then actual in game playing time is invaluable. If nothing else it teaches them what they need to learn.

Help out my poor memory. Have we had similar lack of even garbage playing time from freshmen in the past and if so, did they ever contribute?
 
CharlotteDeac1 said:
I really think that smell is going to contribute next year. He was about 80 overall and a 4 star before he got injured and couldn't play summer ball this past summer.


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Just like Greg McClinton, right?

I'm expecting big (or, perhaps reasonable) things from the classes of 2016 and 2017 next year, but there's just not much to go on at this point outside of Chaundee.

The Class of 2016 has been objectively disappointing, albeit who we thought they were, and I can't see a 6'8, 180 pound small forward (Eggleston) contributing all that much for us right out of the gate.

ETA:
knowell said:
Manning's recruiting is becoming more of a concern for me this year. How do you recruit two players that are so poor that they are not worthy of minutes in a 30 point win?

It may just be my poor recollection, but I don't think I recall ever seeing freshman go this deep into a season without seeing enough of them to have an opinion about their ability. Manning may have his reasons but if they are significantly behind our bad bench, they should not have been recruited. If they have some potential, then actual in game playing time is invaluable. If nothing else it teaches them what they need to learn.

Help out my poor memory. Have we had similar lack of even garbage playing time from freshmen in the past and if so, did they ever contribute?
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Remember, that - with the exception of SJM - these guys are consensus three-star players. Mitchell was Rivals Top-150, but all of these guys were evaluated and the verdict was that they would take awhile to develop. That's fine if the veteran's can pull the freshmen along with them, but ours just can't and the freshman, with the exception of Childress, just aren't helping at all.
 
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Strickland33 said:
Just like Greg McClinton, right?

I'm expecting big (or, perhaps reasonable) things from the classes of 2016 and 2017 next year, but there's just not much to go on at this point outside of Chaundee.

The Class of 2016 has been objectively disappointing, albeit who we thought they were, and I can't see a 6'8, 180 pound small forward (Eggleston) contributing all that much for us right out of the gate.

ETA:

Remember, that - with the exception of SJM - these guys are consensus three-star players. Mitchell was Rivals Top-150, but all of these guys were evaluated to take awhile to develop. That's fine if the veteran's can pull you along with them, but ours just can't and the freshman, with the exception of Childress, just aren't helping at all.
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This is 100% reasonable. I watched Greg play in person in high school very often and he was a stud. Huge disappointment. Greg's injury was a lot worse than Melo's however (knee vs ankle I believe).
 
daaberry said:
Well according to KenPom Wake is currently a better team than USC. I feel safe saying that they would not have won any of the 6 games that Wake has lost with Clemson at home being the only potential exception.
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USC made the tournament in Enfield's third year and also compiled a .500 conference record in the process. Speculation aside, they are well ahead of the curve with a coach just as green as Danny (if not more green than Danny) when he accepted the Wake job. See below for some elaboration of Enfield's recruiting, which you conveniently left out in your response.

birdman said:
Data are data.

What Ph is describing and the data support is a lack of sufficient talent on the team. Coaching deficiencies can generally be masked by good recruiting. Our team is doing about as well as can be expected given the talent (at least compared to previous coaches). Manning has no second unit or at least not an ACC caliber second unit. That has to be addressed through recruiting, but as Ph noted we've brought is 4 ACC caliber players in 3 classes; at that rate this could take a very long time. I'd also say we were better able to mask our talent deficiencies when Wilbekin was starting and Woods was coming off the bench to play with Childress.
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Our team is doing about as well as can be expected given the talent, but the relative lack of talent - like our performances in games - ultimately is the coaching staff's responsibility. There are coaches who can transcend a relative lack of talent and coach their teams up, but that doesn't appear to be Danny Manning's strength, either. This logic is circular, just as it was during the [name redacted]-era.

Also, it's not a matter of recruiting taking a lot of time. My point in invoking Enfield was to show that he made the tourney in year three and has consistently recruited PAC-12 caliber talent every year since he arrived. I'm at a computer now, but compare our recruiting to this:

2013:
Rochon Prince, 4-star (#92 Rivals): transferred to Long Beach State for his sophomore season
Nikola Jovanovich, 3-star (UR): 3-year starter, led the team in rebounds as a senior, 2nd in scoring
Julian Jacobs, 3-star (UR): 3-year starter, led the team in assists as a senior, 3rd in scoring
Khalil Dukes, 3-star (UR): transferred to Niagara for his junior season
-Their senior year was Enfield's first NCAA Tournament appearance

2014:
Jordan McLaughlin, 4-star (#49 Rivals): three year starter, leads the team in scoring and assists, 2nd in steals
Elijah Stewart, 4-star (#64 Rivals): two year starter, 2nd in scoring, 2nd in blocks, 3rd in rebounds
Malik Price-Martin, 3-star (#109 Rivals): transferred to USF for his junior season
Malik Marquetti, 3-star (UR): transferred to Louisiana-Lafayette for his junior season

2015:
Chimeze Metu, 4-star (#41 Rivals): starter, leads the team in rebounding and blocks, 3rd in scoring, 3rd in assists
Bennie Boatwright, 4-star (#57 Rivals): two year starter, 3rd in scoring

2016:
Jonah Mathews, 4-star (#82 Rivals): 20.6 mpg as a freshman, 3rd in steals
D'Anthony Melton, 4-star (#120 Rivals): 2nd in rebounding, 2nd in assists, 3rd in blocks
Nick Rakocevic, 3-star (UR): 16.6 mpg as a freshman, 3rd in rebounding
Harrison Henderson, 3-star (UR): 4.9 mpg as a freshman
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Enfield's worst class was his first (2013) and it's comparable to Danny Manning's Class of 2016. Recruiting doesn't have to take as long as it has in Winston and inheriting a dumpster fire (Enfield got to coach JT Terrell during his first year) doesn't necessarily mean that depth should still be an excuse in year three.
 
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Strickland33 said:
Just like Greg McClinton, right?

I'm expecting big (or, perhaps reasonable) things from the classes of 2016 and 2017 next year, but there's just not much to go on at this point outside of Chaundee.

The Class of 2016 has been objectively disappointing, albeit who we thought they were, and I can't see a 6'8, 180 pound small forward (Eggleston) contributing all that much for us right out of the gate.

ETA:

Remember, that - with the exception of SJM - these guys are consensus three-star players. Mitchell was Rivals Top-150, but all of these guys were evaluated to take awhile to develop. That's fine if the veteran's can pull you along with them, but ours just can't and the freshman, with the exception of Childress, just aren't helping at all.
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He's 6'8", 180 lbs? That's light.
 
RaleighTriad said:
I honestly don't see how some people thinking we are going to be a NCAAT team next year. What am I missing?
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Probably the fact that we are currently atop 50 team and would be top 15-20 if we knew how to finish games. Added experience and depth next year should allow us to finish games against top 25 teams down the stretch.

This team with Collins, Crawford and Woods as juniors and Chaundee at the 3 likely wins the Xavier, NW and Clemson games and maybe finishes one of FSU/UVA on the road. It would be a shock if that team didn't make the tournament.
 
Losing Williams is clearly hurting. Think Mitch with size. Chill is a 7 minute per game back up point guard that extends effort in d, but has no shot, but a decent handle. SJM needs more minutes, he has potential. Moore has got to get stronger to be a factor. I concur that chill and Mitch should not be in the floor at the same time.
 
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