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Danny Manning Credibility Watch

RChildress107 said:
Over the last 10 minutes of games our margin is 4 points less on average than expected based on current Kenpom rankings. That means we are playing 16 points worse than our Kenpom ranking in the last 10 minutes. If my math is correct that means we are 5.3 points per game better over the first 30 min.

That's the equivalent of being a top 25 team for 30 minutes and a ~#180 team for the last 10.

In the non-conference the 30min/10min split was +3.14 ppg / -9..44 ppg (equivalent of going from #30 to #115).

In ACC play the split is +11.86/-35.6 (equivalent of going from #9 to #345)

There are a lot of assumptions baked in there that make those numbers very rough, especially for the smaller the sample sizes, but still the numbers are startling.
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I assume these are unadjusted, so if you adjust for SOS against ACC opponents then we may be top 5 in the first 30...not sure how much that helps from 345th, but it would a decent amount better. That's amazingly different.

Those are ridiculous numbers.
 
deaconson said:
This may be a good goal with a mediocre coach. Wellman may have ruined the coaching well for us. But you can absolutely turn a basketball team around in 2 - 3 years. Waiting 7 - 10 to get back to, and remain in, the top 25 is a pretty low bar for an historically good (top 25 most years) program.
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Is this post serious. No coach at Wake has ever met the expectations listed for years 7-10. Odom was the closest from 93-96 (missed out on top 25 one year). I'd guess that the number of active coaches that have achieved such a 4 year stretch is less than 20.

If UVA makes the sweet 16, Tony Bennett will achieve that third level of expectations in yrs 5-8. Manning took over a clearly worse situation.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
I assume these are unadjusted, so if you adjust for SOS against ACC opponents then we may be top 5 in the first 30...not sure how much that helps from 345th, but it would a decent amount better. That's amazingly different.

Those are ridiculous numbers.
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I just used (expected margin (factoring in home court)/4) - (actual margin in last 10) based of of Kenpoms current adjusted efficiency margin.

Which is fucking stupid because college teams don't play 100 possessions. I'll fix it later.
 
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Eyeballing it using the KenPom charts/possessions:

Offense:

First 30 minutes: 1.14 PPP
Final 10 minutes: 1.02 PPP

ACC Only:

First 30 minutes: 1.07 PPP
Final 10 Minutes: .831 PPP

Defense:

First 30 minutes: .97 PPP
Final 10 minutes: 1.15 PPP

ACC Only:

First 30 Minutes: 1.00 PPP
Final 10 Minutes: 1.31 PPP

Those are startling numbers.
 
deaconson said:
This may be a good goal with a mediocre coach. Wellman may have ruined the coaching well for us. But you can absolutely turn a basketball team around in 2 - 3 years. Waiting 7 - 10 to get back to, and remain in, the top 25 is a pretty low bar for an historically good (top 25 most years) program.
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Here are the 2 year average KP numbers before a coach took over, first 2 year average after takeover, and year 3 KP.

Coach A: KP before: 96; KP (1-2) 89.5; KP year 3: 33

Manning: KP before: 126.5; KP (1-2) 119; year 3: 44

If Manning finishes top 60 he will be in a similar path as coach A. Is coach A mediocre?
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Eyeballing it using the KenPom charts/possessions:

Offense:

First 30 minutes: 1.14 PPP
Final 10 minutes: 1.02 PPP

ACC Only:

First 30 minutes: 1.07 PPP
Final 10 Minutes: .831 PPP

Defense:

First 30 minutes: .97 PPP
Final 10 minutes: 1.15 PPP

ACC Only:

First 30 Minutes: 1.00 PPP
Final 10 Minutes: 1.31 PPP

Those are startling numbers.
Click to expand...


Wow. Both the Offense and Defense fall off a cliff.
 
RChildress107 said:
Is this post serious. No coach at Wake has ever met the expectations listed for years 7-10. Odom was the closest from 93-96 (missed out on top 25 one year). I'd guess that the number of active coaches that have achieved such a 4 year stretch is less than 20.

If UVA makes the sweet 16, Tony Bennett will achieve that third level of expectations in yrs 5-8. Manning took over a clearly worse situation.
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maybe i misread your post while doing too many things at once.

looks like you said your goal for a coach is to be in the top 25 once in years 4-6 and consistent top 25 after 7-10 years in a program. the way i read that is getting back to the level wake was at for a long time before [Redacted] showed up. i think that is setting the bar low. fortunes can change quickly with a recruiting class or two.

i am not anti or pro manning at this point. still a little unsure. as much "better" as we appear one moment we have some concerns the next.
 
deaconson said:
maybe i misread your post while doing too many things at once.

looks like you said your goal for a coach is to be in the top 25 once in years 4-6 and consistent top 25 after 7-10 years in a program. the way i read that is getting back to the level wake was at for a long time before [name redacted] showed up. i think that is setting the bar low. fortunes can change quickly with a recruiting class or two.

i am not anti or pro manning at this point. still a little unsure. as much "better" as we appear one moment we have some concerns the next.
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So returning to the level of the best era of Wake basketball by year 4 and meeting or slightly exceeding the peak of Wake basketball in years 7-10 is too low a bar? Are you fucking kidding me?

Years 7-10 as I described them would equal the best stretch Wake basketball has ever had. Apparently that is not good enough or soon enough for you.

So to be clear: to meet expectations Manning has to take over after the worst four year stretch in Wake Bball history and start a stretch that will exceed the best 4 year stretch in Wake basketball history by year 6 at the latest?
 
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I read your expectation as a top 25 finish once by the end of year 6. Yes. I think that's aiming low. probably just a matter of degree in our opinions. Being inside or just outside the top 25 should be the expectation rather then a now and then situation.

Nearly always being top 25 at some point between 7-10 should certainly be the goal. I just think a good coach gets there a little sooner than your expectation.

Yes, I realize the depth Wellman sinks us to with [Redacted]. Fortunes can change within a few years in college basketball if you have a good coach. Maybe Manning is and he turns the corner between this year and next.

I'm pretty reasonable about Manning. Jury remains out. Though there are red flags and some positive ones.
 
deaconson said:
I read your expectation as a top 25 finish once by the end of year 6. Yes. I think that's aiming low. probably just a matter of degree in our opinions. Being inside or just outside the top 25 should be the expectation rather then a now and then situation.

Nearly always being top 25 at some point between 7-10 should certainly be the goal. I just think a good coach gets there a little sooner than your expectation.

Yes, I realize the depth Wellman sinks us to with [Redacted]. Fortunes can change within a few years in college basketball if you have a good coach. Maybe Manning is and he turns the corner between this year and next.

I'm pretty reasonable about Manning. Jury remains out. Though there are red flags and some positive ones.
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You realize that no coach has ever finished in the AP top 25 four years in a row at Wake, right? Are you saying we've never had a good coach?
 
I'm fine bumping that timeline to years 6-9. My point is that Manning is meeting short term expectations in a similar fashion to good coaches (Bennett, Enfield and Buzz Williams), there is a clear middle step which should start next year and last 2-3 years (See Bennett) and then we can talk about being a guaranteed top 25 team every year.
 
Tony Bennett is writing the textbook on rebuilding and then redefining a high major program. He is an excellent coach. The baseline expectation for an above average coach should not be Tony Bennett. And yet, if you account for Manning taking over a worse situation he's keeping pace with Bennett's first 3 seasons.

I don't expect Manning to keep that pace or have years 5-8 like Bennett (one can hope) but what I outlined above isn't really that far off.
 
RChildress107 said:
Over the last 10 minutes of games our margin is 4 points less on average than expected based on current Kenpom rankings. That means we are playing 16 points worse than our Kenpom ranking in the last 10 minutes. If my math is correct that means we are 5.3 points per game better over the first 30 min.

That's the equivalent of being a top 25 team for 30 minutes and a ~#180 team for the last 10.

In the non-conference the 30min/10min split was +3.14 ppg / -9..44 ppg (equivalent of going from #30 to #115).

In ACC play the split is +11.86/-35.6 (equivalent of going from #9 to #345)

There are a lot of assumptions baked in there that make those numbers very rough, especially for the smaller the sample sizes, but still the numbers are startling.
Click to expand...

That is absolutely crazy. I can't imagine what all goes into playing like a top 10 team for 30 minutes, then reverting to one of the worst teams in all of college basketball for the last 10.
#noleadissafe
 
Some of you are out of your mind...need a dose of reality here.
 
Only 7 current top 25 teams have finished there the last three years (Kansas, Baylor, Nova, Duke, UNC, Louisville, Virginia, Arizona)

I'd say my expectations for Manning are pretty lofty.
 
It's interesting that two of those programs are successful rebuilds. Go look at Scott Drew's path and Tony Bennett's path and you will see something similar to what I laid out. But I guess if Manning's not going to make us a top 10 program by year 8 we need to get rid of him now.
 
RChildress107 said:
You realize that no coach has ever finished in the AP top 25 four years in a row at Wake, right? Are you saying we've never had a good coach?
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I do. If i said top 25 "every single year" then i apologize. thought i said it should be "normal" and more often than not. also said once in manning's first 6 years is aiming a little low.

of course not.

RChildress107 said:
I'm fine bumping that timeline to years 6-9. My point is that Manning is meeting short term expectations in a similar fashion to good coaches (Bennett, Enfield and Buzz Williams), there is a clear middle step which should start next year and last 2-3 years (See Bennett) and then we can talk about being a guaranteed top 25 team every year.
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don't disagree. also, don't think i said "guaranteed." my timeline is a little shorter than yours. top 25 in year 4-5 and maintaining that is doable. getting to the sweet 16 level would be my 3rd tier.

RChildress107 said:
Only 7 current top 25 teams have finished there the last three years (Kansas, Baylor, Nova, Duke, UNC, Louisville, Virginia, Arizona)

I'd say my expectations for Manning are pretty lofty.
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parity in today's game. i guess i am stuck in the 90s 9 team league. 5-7 teams in the tourney annually from the acc. today's game is different so with more competition for the best target maybe my pov is skewed. fair enough.
 
deaconson said:
I do. If i said top 25 "every single year" then i apologize. thought i said it should be "normal" and more often than not. also said once in manning's first 6 years is aiming a little low.

of course not.



don't disagree. also, don't think i said "guaranteed." my timeline is a little shorter than yours. top 25 in year 4-5 and maintaining that is doable. getting to the sweet 16 level would be my 3rd tier.



parity in today's game. i guess i am stuck in the 90s 9 team league. 5-7 teams in the tourney annually from the acc. today's game is different so with more competition for the best target maybe my pov is skewed. fair enough.
Click to expand...

Maybe go back and read my original post. My expectations for our coach are higher than yours I'm just willing to give him an appropriate amount of time to get there. I'm also allowing for a non linear progression.

Top 25 by year 5-6 and maintaining that is basically what my expectations are saying, with a little more nuance.

Expecting top 25 in year 4 is silly. Not even Bennett did that.
 
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