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Danny Manning Credibility Watch

CharlotteDeac1 said:
I mean, so far this year's our losses have come against four top 15 teams all away, a top 25 KP team at home, and a top 40 team away. Should have beaten Clemson and northwestern imo, but these losses can be attributed mainly to lack of depth and superior teams--not manning.

*we are in year three of a complete rebuild for reiteration*

EDIT: to say NW loss can be attributed to an atrocious shooting night way under our season average.

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Just like LSU shooting was an outlier as well... what an awesome game that was!
 
Carl Tacy pulled a few good upsets a year in his rebuilding of WF hoops, including wins over NCSU and UNC in the big four and UNC in the ACCT. This team has a very good starting 5 and a decent bench. None of our subs are really bad players. Coach them up and get a few scalps.
 
wfu22fan said:
Carl Tacy pulled a few good upsets a year in his rebuilding of WF hoops, including wins over NCSU and UNC in the big four and UNC in the ACCT. This team has a very good starting 5 and a decent bench. None of our subs are really bad players. Coach them up and get a few scalps.
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Tacy's teams seemed to play their best basketball early in the season and then fade as the year rolled on. That may have been from lack of depth and the starters playing a lot of minutes. it caught up with them later in the season.

Danny has been trying to spread the minutes this year, maybe to keep guys fresher for a late season run.
 
I'm kinda torn on Manning because we do have 3 really really good basketball players on our team and he brought them here and developed their skills. And he has a legit top 50 commit for next year.

On the other hand the dude is a legit moron at lineup building, I don't really like watching our team play, there is nothing in the adv stats that Manning teams do consistently well (maybe FTA on offense but that's marginal), and the '16 recruiting class is a full-on disaster.

I think the real question is if Manning really has an eye for good talent and talent development or if we have 3 good players on our team due to true positive variance. I think pretty impossible to know at this point.
 
PhDeac said:
If it had just happened against FSU, you'd have a point.
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We suck at the end of games. That's part mental, part physical, part lack of depth, part youth, part talent, and part coaching.

We are a top 25 team for the first 30 minutes of games. That's part mental, part physical, part talent 1-4, part coaching.

While the former overcomes the latter against top 25 teams, that is likely to flip flop when we play teams slightly worse than us.
 
RChildress107 said:
We suck at the end of games. That's part mental, part physical, part lack of depth, part youth, part talent, and part coaching.

We are a top 25 team for the first 30 minutes of games. That's part mental, part physical, part talent 1-4, part coaching.

While the former overcomes the latter against top 25 teams, that is likely to flip flop when we play teams slightly worse than us.
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As long as you accept that the coach is ultimately responsible for physical and mental preparation, depth, and talent. Youth is the only factor he can't control right now.
 
Why is WF better this year than the last 2 Manning years? Because our offense is better. Why is our offense better? Because we have an excellent eFG% - essentially we are an offensive efficiency team this year.

There is absolutely nothing in Manning's past that indicates he is any type of an effective offensive efficiency coach. What he does have is 2 hyper efficient studs (Collins, Woods) on his basketball team that (I believe) would carry any team they are on into being efficient. But once again, he brought those guys here. So I dunno, up for everyone out there to decide for themselves.
 
wfu22fan said:
It's a pattern of folding at the end of games. It's been going on in ACC games for 2 years and 3 games. Fuck the metrics and KemPom. Win a game against a top tier ACC team!
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Year one has virtually no predictive relevance for this team. Last years decline is concering because there was a significant drop in level of play (not just losing to a bunch of teams better than us). Even if we experienced a similar decline this year we could probably anticipate 4-5 wins simply because we'd be declining from a higher place.

The decline last year was part morale (after the UVA buzzer beater), part leadership, and part relying on a freshman PG.

Our leadership is different, our freshman PG is a sophomore now. The next two games will be important to morale and if we lose both it will take much better leadership than last year to capitalize on the easier second half of our schedule.
 
DeacDaddy said:
As long as you accept that the coach is ultimately responsible for physical and mental preparation, depth, and talent. Youth is the only factor he can't control right now.
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Building depth and talent takes time. Wake's recruiting, like almost all schools, is tied to its level of play. Given what Manning inherited, the level of play had improved as expected (on track with other high profile rebuilds). Given the level of play, the recruiting has been ok, but not great. Part of that involves missing on Giles and it's also a little early to write off the 2016 class.

The coach can impact mental preparation and Manning deserves criticism if our end of game mental issues continue.
 
FckVwls said:
I'm kinda torn on Manning because we do have 3 really really good basketball players on our team and he brought them here and developed their skills. And he has a legit top 50 commit for next year.

On the other hand the dude is a legit moron at lineup building, I don't really like watching our team play, there is nothing in the adv stats that Manning teams do consistently well (maybe FTA on offense but that's marginal), and the '16 recruiting class is a full-on disaster.

I think the real question is if Manning really has an eye for good talent and talent development or if we have 3 good players on our team due to true positive variance. I think pretty impossible to know at this point.
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I think it would be tough to chalk up our improvement solely to Crawford, Collins, and Woods outperforming expectations based on recruiting rankings.

I also think attributing all that outperformance to sheer luck on Manning's part is a stretch.

Wake is outperforming its collective recruiting rankings by a decent margin. Manning pretty clearly deserves some credit for that.
 
I would certainly chalk up all of our improvement to Crawford, Woods, and Collins. They are awesome. The rest of the team is very very bad.
 
FckVwls said:
I would certainly chalk up all of our improvement to Crawford, Woods, and Collins. They are awesome. The rest of the team is very very bad.
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The rest of the roster is just comprised of role players. Mitch and Austin would be 6-8 guys on NCAA Tourney teams getting 10 minutes a game. Unfortunately they get extended run because we have nobody at the 3 and no depth at the 5, so our 4 becomes the 5 when we get into foul trouble.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
The rest of the roster is just comprised of role players. Mitch and Austin would be 6-8 guys on NCAA Tourney teams getting 10 minutes a game. Unfortunately they get extended run because we have nobody at the 3 and no depth at the 5, so our 4 becomes the 5 when we get into foul trouble.
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Yeah, Arians and Mitch are fine floor spacers / 3 point shooters and have a role. But that is their only skill. Certainly not good ACC players. They are just like worse versions of Coron Williams.
 
Mitiglou also needs to be in the conversation. Right now he is two different players depending on the game. But the two haven't yet shown up in the same game. He seems to be either the three pointer sharp shooter of his first two years or the power forward banger we gave seen in most games this year. I'm waiting for the "mix" game where he is hitting threes and pounding down low.

He needs to watch some old tape of Laettner playing from the high post. Triple threat. Shoot the three, drive the lane or pass.
 
RChildress107 said:
Building depth and talent takes time. Wake's recruiting, like almost all schools, is tied to its level of play. Given what Manning inherited, the level of play had improved as expected (on track with other high profile rebuilds). Given the level of play, the recruiting has been ok, but not great. Part of that involves missing on Giles and it's also a little early to write off the 2016 class.

The coach can impact mental preparation and Manning deserves criticism if our end of game mental issues continue.
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While the last part of your second paragraph is true, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt until we have a bench that can come in and not give up a lead/huge run at the end of the game. The strategy for manning is probably to not play Crawford and Collins the final 15 minutes, taking them out around 8 and putting them back around 4. That time should be shorter (putting them back in around 5-6) but having a bench that blows games like that would be tough for any coach. Depth is a huge issue.


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Deaconblue said:
Mitiglou also needs to be in the conversation. Right now he is two different players depending on the game. But the two haven't yet shown up in the same game. He seems to be either the three pointer sharp shooter of his first two years or the power forward banger we gave seen in most games this year. I'm waiting for the "mix" game where he is hitting threes and pounding down low.

He needs to watch some old tape of Laettner playing from the high post. Triple threat. Shoot the three, drive the lane or pass.
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Manning deserves recognition for the progression of Dinos' post game, as does Horn.


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Deacsfan27 said:
The rest of the roster is just comprised of role players. Mitch and Austin would be 6-8 guys on NCAA Tourney teams getting 10 minutes a game. Unfortunately they get extended run because we have nobody at the 3 and no depth at the 5, so our 4 becomes the 5 when we get into foul trouble.
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Our 5-10 guys aren't ACC caliber but they are better than our 5-10 over the past 6 years. Them meeting or outperforming their recruiting rankings (some of those guys were 2 star recruits) has something to do with our improvement as well.

Let's put it this way. If you reranked Crawford, Collins, and Woods and then recalculated our talent score I don't think that would fully explain Manning outperforming his talent level.
 
CharlotteDeac1 said:
While the last part of your second paragraph is true, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt until we have a bench that can come in and not give up a lead/huge run at the end of the game. The strategy for manning is probably to not play Crawford and Collins the final 15 minutes, taking them out around 8 and putting them back around 4. That time should be shorter (putting them back in around 5-6) but having a bench that blows games like that would be tough for any coach. Depth is a huge issue.


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I'd like to see Manning commit to having Crawford, Woods, and Collins on the floor the whole second half (though that will always be dependent on Collins foul situation).

That's not sustainable as a norm, but if you have a lead over a top 25 team with ten minutes left I'd like to give the starters the opportunity to bring it home.

I think the "bench is blowing our second half leads" narrative is a bit overstated (I haven't seen anyone run the numbers) there is probably some truth to it.
 
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