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Danny Manning Credibility Watch

RChildress107 said:
Our 5-10 guys aren't ACC caliber but they are better than our 5-10 over the past 6 years. Them meeting or outperforming their recruiting rankings (some of those guys were 2 star recruits) has something to do with our improvement as well.

Let's put it this way. If you reranked Crawford, Collins, and Woods and then recalculated our talent score I don't think that would fully explain Manning outperforming his talent level.
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I'm baffled. If you take the big 3 off this team our team would be like KP 300. Way worse than Boston College. Austin Arians is the 4th best player on this team. In a way I'm realizing that our fan base doesn't recognize how good Key Woods and John Collins actually are.
 
FckVwls said:
I'm baffled. If you take the big 3 off this team our team would be like KP 300. Way worse than Boston College. Austin Arians is the 4th best player on this team. In a way I'm realizing that our fan base doesn't recognize how good Key Woods and John Collins actually are.
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A guy who comments on BSD said he would take every single post player from UNC, Duke, and FSU over John Collins. That includes Michael Ojo (5 PPG, 4 RPG), and Christ Koumadje (who backed up Doral Moore in high school, who also didn't start). Fans can be strange sometimes.

Collins moved into the top 5 for All-KenPom team, which is heavily team-weighted, so that's pretty damn impressive.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
The rest of the roster is just comprised of role players. Mitch and Austin would be 6-8 guys on NCAA Tourney teams getting 10 minutes a game. Unfortunately they get extended run because we have nobody at the 3 and no depth at the 5, so our 4 becomes the 5 when we get into foul trouble.
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That's why adding a true 3 to the roster will help immensely next year. It allows everyone to play their proper roles.

Childress and Mitch are serviceable backups at the 1 and 2 respectively. They should never play together.

With Chaundee on this team, Arians would only play about ten minutes a game. Hopefully one of Melo/Washington is ready to step into that role.

Sam/Doral can provide ~10-15 minutes at the 5 depending on the matchup. Only obvious depth issue is at the 4 but we can go small (3 guards plus Chaundee) or big (slide Collins to the 4) selectively to cover that.

Next year we have an ACC caliber starting 5, and 3-4 close to ACC caliber role players who will only be asked to play their roles.
 
A starting five of SJM, Dinos, Austin, Mitch and Brandon would be probably around a KenPom 200, not 300. That bunch would have decent size, real good shooting and good ball handling.

Wake is a little more than just the CCW three
 
Didn't someone run the numbers recently and Chill and Wilbekin in at the same time was some absurdly bad number, like around -15? I'm not sure what site to find those numbers


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CharlotteDeac1 said:
Didn't someone run the numbers recently and Chill and Wilbekin in at the same time was some absurdly bad number, like around -15? I'm not sure what site to find those numbers


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Yes. Lineups with Childress and Wilbekin perform considerably worse than lineups with only one or none of them.

Chaundee isn't going to solve depth problems by himself. He may play a minute or two more than Arians. The rotations will be the same unless Manning changes his approach, some players step up, or Manning recruits a post-grad wing capable of starting over Chaundee or being a 6th man.
 
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FckVwls said:
I'm baffled. If you take the big 3 off this team our team would be like KP 300. Way worse than Boston College. Austin Arians is the 4th best player on this team. In a way I'm realizing that our fan base doesn't recognize how good Key Woods and John Collins actually are.
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No shit, but if Crawford played like a #95 recruit, and Collins and Woods played like #150 recruits we would be like KP 100 which would be better than our overall talent level (based on recruiting rankings) would suggest.

You can't explain our improvement by saying Manning simply got lucky that Crawford, Collins, and Woods were better than people thought they would be.
 
RChildress107 said:
No shit, but if Crawford played like a #95 recruit, and Collins and Woods played like #150 recruits we would be like KP 100 which would be better than our overall talent level (based on recruiting rankings) would suggest.

You can't explain our improvement by saying Manning simply got lucky that Crawford, Collins, and Woods were better than people thought they would be.
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Yes you can. Why couldn't you?
 
I'm not saying that for sure. What I am saying is:

1. We are a decent team this year because we have 3 awesome players
2. Manning brought these players into the program and has developed them for 2 years and now they are good.
3. Maybe DM is really good at finding/developing awesome players or maybe he just got lucky. Kind of hard to know with the sample size we have at this point.
4. I do know with quite a lot of confidence that Danny sucks at game management, lineups, timeouts, adjustments etc.
 
FckVwls said:
I'm not saying that for sure. What I am saying is:

1. We are a decent team this year because we have 3 awesome players
2. Manning brought these players into the program and has developed them for 2 years and now they are good.
3. Maybe DM is really good at finding/developing awesome players or maybe he just got lucky. Kind of hard to know with the sample size we have at this point.
4. I do know with quite a lot of confidence that Danny sucks at game management, lineups, timeouts, adjustments etc.
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This is a good post.
 
FckVwls said:
I'm not saying that for sure. What I am saying is:

1. We are a decent team this year because we have 3 awesome players
2. Manning brought these players into the program and has developed them for 2 years and now they are good.
3. Maybe DM is really good at finding/developing awesome players or maybe he just got lucky. Kind of hard to know with the sample size we have at this point.
4. I do know with quite a lot of confidence that Danny sucks at game management, lineups, timeouts, adjustments etc.
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If #1 and #2 are true, then #3 is showing a preconceived negative notion. If believe #2 , #3 is ridiculous.

As to #4, you have no way to fully judge that with a team that you have to try weird things to succeed due being out-talented so often. He may not be great, but to say he sucks cannot be justified due the talent level.
 
RJKarl said:
If #1 and #2 are true, then #3 is showing a preconceived negative notion. If believe #2 , #3 is ridiculous.

As to #4, you have no way to fully judge that with a team that you have to try weird things to succeed due being out-talented so often. He may not be great, but to say he sucks cannot be justified due the talent level.
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If he is so "out-talented", then it's a reflection of his recruiting at this juncture. Obviously we will be a more talented team next year by adding Brown, but either way there are some flaws in his coaching thus far, whether they be recruiting and/or in-game.

I think it requires a fair mount of mental gymnastics to say that Manning is anything better than "less than average" at in-game coaching.
 
RChildress107 said:
No shit, but if Crawford played like a #95 recruit, and Collins and Woods played like #150 recruits we would be like KP 100 which would be better than our overall talent level (based on recruiting rankings) would suggest.

You can't explain our improvement by saying Manning simply got lucky that Crawford, Collins, and Woods were better than people thought they would be.
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Mitiglou has to be in this mix as well. He arrived at Wake as a skinny three point shooting Euro. As a Junior he has developed some nice low post moves and shown a willingness to go down and bang, and is doing it at an ACC starter level.

Is this another "talent find" or development by Manning and staff, or some of both?
 
RJKarl said:
If #1 and #2 are true, then #3 is showing a preconceived negative notion. If believe #2 , #3 is ridiculous.

As to #4, you have no way to fully judge that with a team that you have to try weird things to succeed due being out-talented so often. He may not be great, but to say he sucks cannot be justified due the talent level.
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How is stating maybe he is good at finding/developing players or maybe he got lucky a "preconceived negative notion"?
 
Personally, I believe Manning to be an excellent evaluator of talent, particularly at getting on guys early before they blow-up. It also appears that the staff has done a very good job of strength training and improving guys quickly. That is what makes the in-game stuff so frustrating.

Time will tell if he can improve on that facet, and also if he can win some of the 5 star guys over the blue bloods at a reasonable clip to get us into the upper echelon of the ACC.
 
RJKarl said:
If #1 and #2 are true, then #3 is showing a preconceived negative notion. If believe #2 , #3 is ridiculous.

As to #4, you have no way to fully judge that with a team that you have to try weird things to succeed due being out-talented so often. He may not be great, but to say he sucks cannot be justified due the talent level.
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Not really. It's the same as if a rookie* NFL GM hits on 3 stars during an NFL draft. I recognize and acknowledge that the 3 players are studs. I'm not going to all of a sudden assume that the GM is a better than average talent analyst.
 
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PhDeac said:
Yes you can. Why couldn't you?
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Read my first paragraph and go look at the calculations I did comparing the talent of wake teams using recruiting rankings and experience.

I don't have the underlying data right now, but if you go back and change Collins to a 5 star, Crawford to a 4.5 star and Woods to a 4 star our talent level still wouldn't explain our jump in Kenpom.

I guess there's nothing stopping you from saying that, but I don't think there is any data to back up that claim.
 
Deaconblue said:
Mitiglou has to be in this mix as well. He arrived at Wake as a skinny three point shooting Euro. As a Junior he has developed some nice low post moves and shown a willingness to go down and bang, and is doing it at an ACC starter level.

Is this another "talent find" or development by Manning and staff, or some of both?
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I'm still not sure that would explain the variance between recruiting rankings and Kenpom but I'll go back and run the numbers. You then have to run the odds of Manning getting lucky on 4 out of 6 recruits (really 3 out of 4 since Crawford and Doral were 4 stars)
 
Deacsfan27 said:
If he is so "out-talented", then it's a reflection of his recruiting at this juncture. Obviously we will be a more talented team next year by adding Brown, but either way there are some flaws in his coaching thus far, whether they be recruiting and/or in-game.

I think it requires a fair mount of mental gymnastics to say that Manning is anything better than "less than average" at in-game coaching.
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He did blow the 2016 class, but he had to go balls to the walls and keep slots open in case we got Giles. You can't deny we have more talent than at any time in the past 6-7 years and we are getting better. It's undeniable that JC, Dinos and Bryant have great improved since arrive. Although Wilbekin isn't an ACC level starter, he's also improved. We can't tell yet about the frosh.

As to his coaching, he has had some problems, but to say he sucks is without merit.

You love your analytics. How can a coach who is "less than average" take this amount of talent to #21 in RPI and Top 50 in KP and Sagarin? Do their computers and numbers only count when they fit your preconceived notions?

The jury is still out on Danny's coaching.
 
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