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Offical Sports Betting Thread

yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeah but it looks like the falcons have given up

Falcons have had a pretty tough stretch to start the season: at Philly in the banner hanging game, three home games against teams at or tied for division lead, then at Pittsburgh that finally put a good offensive game together. Their next five are Bucs at home, Giants at home, @ Skins, @ Browns, and Cowboys at home. I could see them easily 4-1 in that stretch with possibility of 5-0. Their defense is a mess, but they can put up points. Next two for them will decide the season and they should win both of them
 
So other than your upset pick, that 9-team, heavy favorite moneyline parlay will pay about 2 to 1 odds, right? Or are you planning to play all those teams against the spread?

No smartass, those are my ATS picks I am looking at. Just like I said App St -10 last night. Duke +3 looks very good as they have played option teams well & did really well against Army In their opener. Plus they also had a week off to prepare. The scary part is whether or not you think GT has gotten it together with 60 point games against Bowling Green & Louisville or was it just inferior competition? Maybe a different dog for you is Iowa St +6.5 at home against WVa. Some are saying this is an outright upset.
 
No smartass, those are my ATS picks I am looking at. Just like I said App St -10 last night. Duke +3 looks very good as they have played option teams well & did really well against Army In their opener. Plus they also had a week off to prepare. The scary part is whether or not you think GT has gotten it together with 60 point games against Bowling Green & Louisville or was it just inferior competition? Maybe a different dog for you is Iowa St +6.5 at home against WVa. Some are saying this is an outright upset.

T's and P's with that strategy, hope it works out for ya!
 
T's and P's with that strategy, hope it works out for ya!

Me too. Usually like to mix in some dogs, just can't find any yet that I like in college. Have a few I am thinking about for the NFL though. Plus gotta find a good suicide pool play since we are down to 16 left out of 202.
 
Haven't spent a ton of time on this weekend, but I like:

GT -3 over Duke
Jax -3 over Dallas

Had to get on both before the line moved over a FG.

Also wanted to post this to prove I do take favorites every now and then.
 
Haven't spent a ton of time on this weekend, but I like:

GT -3 over Duke
Jax -3 over Dallas

Had to get on both before the line moved over a FG.

Also wanted to post this to prove I do take favorites every now and then.

I don't follow the college game enough to say, but I do follow the pro lines. It seems most years that NFL favorites and dogs come close to batting .500. If anything, home seems to make a bigger difference in the pro game than one's status as a favorite or dog, especially this year.
 
This week:

CFB:

La Tech -11.5
Washington -3
Mich. State +13.5
UGA/LSU under 50.5
Ball State +3

BTW, lots of great trends favoring Duke. Duke is great off a bye; they are great against option teams (only team to have shutdown Army this year). Everyone seems to be on Duke. Makes it a little scary. In the ACC, I lean to UVA +6 (let down for Miami after win over FSU), UNC +5.5 (off a bye; VT off an emotional loss; UNC getting all of its suspended players back) and BC -13.5 (bet against L'ville every week and you will cash more than not).

NFL

TN +3
J'ville/Dallas U 40.5
New England -3
 
I don't follow the college game enough to say, but I do follow the pro lines. It seems most years that NFL favorites and dogs come close to batting .500. If anything, home seems to make a bigger difference in the pro game than one's status as a favorite or dog, especially this year.

I think every home team won in the 1pm NFL slate last week.

But every week is different.

I like some road teams this week... Besides JAX, I lean PHI BAL SEA IND (though I probably won't play any of those).

Most of the time, I am a big home dog guy... But that has been working too well this year and I think we're approaching the part of the season where it's time to start playing some of the better teams when they aren't laying a ton of points. To that point, I keep going back and forth on the Rams this week... Seems like people expect them to have trouble @ Denver after almost losing @ Seattle. I was one of those people on Seattle last week... I want to continue to fade the Rams, but I can't pull the trigger on that this week. Almost want to take them and lay the points.
 
BTW, lots of great trends favoring Duke. Duke is great off a bye; they are great against option teams (only team to have shutdown Army this year). Everyone seems to be on Duke. Makes it a little scary.

Yup.

I don't care if Duke is prepared... I think GT is going to run all over them. That's the entirety of my thesis.

I never claimed I was profound.
 
I keep going back and forth on the Rams this week... Seems like people expect them to have trouble @ Denver after almost losing @ Seattle. I was one of those people on Seattle last week... I want to continue to fade the Rams, but I can't pull the trigger on that this week. Almost want to take them and lay the points.

Probably a good call, Vance Joseph seems in over his head. Could retire if I went against him every game of his HC career
 
Also like Memphis +5 over UCF.

Why? Memphis got worked by Tulane and lost to a weak Navy team. UCF has destroyed all comers. Surprised the line is that close.
 
UCF has been surprisingly low for a few weeks now -- vs FAU and vs Pitt they were only like a 13-pt fave, and -25.5 vs lousy SMU last week seemed low too. They've covered every time and the public has been all over them, but you gotta figure Vegas is gonna be right soon on them
 
Why? Memphis got worked by Tulane and lost to a weak Navy team. UCF has destroyed all comers. Surprised the line is that close.

When 90%+ of people agree on something, they’re usually wrong. Especially when the line doesn’t budge.

Memphis can score with UCF
Memphis is undefeated at home
Memphis ranks 129 of 130 in “luck”
The loss to Navy was played in a rainstorm

There’s other stuff, but that’s the gist.
 
My favorites:

VT -6 [UNC has Surratt out for season & freshman QB who can only throw screen passes. VT wants to come back after bad loss vs ND]
Florida -8 @ Vandy
Cal -7 vs UCLA
Utah St -24 vs UNLV
UGa/LSU under 51

NFL
Pittsburgh +3 @ Cincy
Tennessee +3 vs Balt
Cleveland P vs Chargers
 
When 90%+ of people agree on something, they’re usually wrong. Especially when the line doesn’t budge.

Memphis can score with UCF
Memphis is undefeated at home
Memphis ranks 129 of 130 in “luck”
The loss to Navy was played in a rainstorm

There’s other stuff, but that’s the gist.

I guess. Both teams have scored a lot of points against a weak schedule, so the metrics aren't going to show much of an advantage for UCF. I'd be shocked if they won by less than 10 though. I haven't seen either team much, but I think I've watched about 10 minutes of UCF this season and they scored about 5 TDs.
 
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