DeacsATS
Sam "Ace" Rothstein
I guess. Both teams have scored a lot of points against a weak schedule, so the metrics aren't going to show much of an advantage for UCF. I'd be shocked if they won by less than 10 though. I haven't seen either team much, but I think I've watched about 10 minutes of UCF this season and they scored about 5 TDs.
You're missing the point, I think.
I am not trying to predict what I think should happen in the game. I gave up on that a long time ago. I am not smarter than anyone else that spends a lot of time watching college football. I am trying to wager money based on public sentiment, which I think is skewed way too far in one direction. I'm trying to get ~60%+ of these wagers correct and this game looks like a good value to me relative to others on the slate.
The GT -3 call against Duke is a pretty similar setup... Difference being that GT is favored.
The NFL is a different animal, but this week I just think there are some road teams not getting enough credit (PHI JAX BAL... Maybe LAR). I'm usually a home dog guy, but that's a trend that may be played out a bit right now.