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Offical Sports Betting Thread

Agree that season totals are "easier" than individual game outcomes. Allows you to express an opinion on a team that provides a little more of a margin of error than you'd get picking a single game ATS.

I feel the same way about NBA playoff futures. I'm better about picking the winner of a series than an individual game.
 
Tempted to take the Skins tonight, simply because I have no fantasy exposure to the game and I'm bored.

That's always dangerous.
 
With discussion across several threads, figured I'd bump this.

As a big golf fan normally put down bets on a weekly basis ($1/$2 to win bets, a couple random first round leader bets, and then a series of $3-$5 bets on H2H matchups throughout the week). So nothing too crazy but just some skin in the game to make it even more interesting. Hit Chris Kirk earlier this year at like 35-1 and just looking back over the last couple months am up $65 or so (primarily just on the basis of cleaning up in H2H and three ball at Augusta plus hitting the Sahith +550 top debut).

Looking at the Heritage this weekend I've got:

Morikawa 18-1
Cam Young 22.5-1 (boosted on DK)
JT 25-1
Tom Kim 45-1
Brian Harman 110-1

Also like Scottie -110 heads up against Rahm for the tournament (Scottie was one of the best tee to green players last week and just missed everything while Rahm is coming off the high of Augusta).

Stats that will matter this week are: strokes gained 150-175 and 175-200 (par four scoring), scrambling, 3 putt avoidance, and driving accuracy (placement off the tee is probably the most important for a dogleg heavy and tree lined course).

Also up 8 units now just betting Wake baseball moneylines. Skipping today because midweek games are crapshoots and Wake's value for these games is often terrible. Should be a fun weekend series against Louisville for a little bit of value plus some upside on run line bets.

What's everybody dabbling in these days on the $$$ front?
 
Also, on Tom Kim (45 to 1) this week. Love this course fit.
Also, on Morikawa at 20-1, Matt Fitzpatrick at 30-1, Im 33-1, Webb (he has a great history here) 90-1 and Denny McCarthy at 130-1. Will also fade Rahm. He almost never misses a cut, but there may not be a player in 2023 less motivated to grind this week than Rahm. Will take him to miss the cut.
 
Tom Kim is top 10 in the PGA in approach 150-175, scrambling, and driving accuracy. Distance isn't an issue at Harbour Town and his consistent style of play + ball striking really does make him an attractive option for the week.

I see a lot of Cantlay love out there as well based on his course history.

Random Denny McCarthy anecdote. My brother in law and his now wife got married last year the same week during the US Open in Brookline and I was talking to one of the bridesmaids who went to UVA with the bride and she said she was thinking about trying to snag tickets for Sunday at Brookline CC because her best friend was "playing in some golf tournament." Turned out it was Denny McCarthy and she couldn't believe anybody knew who he was. My wife really burned me by saying "well he's a golf nerd and is in all these fantasy leagues with his friends." I was like...thanks. And to be fair he was in the top 10 of the US Open it's not like he was contending on the KFT or something.
 
Always try to handicap dispassionately. Lot of good reasons to back Cantlay this week. Just hate the way he plays so much, hard to pull the trigger on him. Would be typical for him to win this event after gagging his 4th round in Augusta. Cantlay rises up in lesser events.
 
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Tossed in a few FRL bets for fun:

Theegala 60-1
Im 40-1
Kirk 75-1
Young 35-1
Lowry 45-1
Kim 55-1

Leader has come from morning wave in 4 of last 5 tournaments here. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a long shot snag a tie for it either. Thinking -6 or -7
 
NFL draft parlay: Bryce first pick, Levis second pick has dropped from +2800 to +1500 in 24 hours. Seems like Stroud’s stock is in serious flux.
 
Kicking myself for not just throwing an FRL on all of my to wins. Harman now +450 in the clubhouse at 125-1 opening odds for first round lead. We live and we learn.
 
Hey knew I didn't need to fire FRL's on all my to wins.

Hovland better than even odds now at -140 in at -7.
 
In the world of: good process, meh results. Both Morikawa and Tom Kim have struck the ball very well through the first round+ but cannot make a damn thing (putting strokes gained round to round is largely a “luck”/“margin of error” factor - obviously some guys are better putters than others but strokes gained tee to green is a pretty good short term indicator that you’re getting it around well). Morikawa lost 4.5 strokes putting yesterday (worst in the field by a whole shot) and Kim has missed 8 birdie putts under 13 feet through 23 holes this tournament.
 
Pilchard said:
Always try to handicap dispassionately. Lot of good reasons to back Cantlay this week. Just hate the way he plays so much, hard to pull the trigger on him. Would be typical for him to win this event after gagging his 4th round in Augusta. Cantlay rises up in lesser events.
Click to expand...

Nothingburger...

 
The “he feels like he should be on the LIV” is the most true golf statement I’ve seen all year. Kudos. I cashed the Harman ticket out yesterday at +290 when he was -5 and tied for the lead because I figured an elevated event no way in hell he keeps it up. Could’ve gotten better value post round on it but hey we turned a profit on Brian Harman somehow so that’s fine
 
Very nice. Cashed a little $3 ticket on Fitzpatrick for $91.50 today. Gotta love golf winners. Conners a couple weeks ago was $7 for $171.50.
 
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