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Offical Sports Betting Thread

Kicking myself for passing on two leans so far: Minnesota +7 and WKU +1.5.

Need Purdue to pick it up but that game has just been awful. Texas Tech is annihilating WVU

You had a great day anyway!!

Our Suicide pool ended today in week 10. With 9 of us left, 7 of us has New Orleans & 2 others had Indy in the late game. So we will split $23,000. Not a bad payday. Would like to have won or finished 2nd but still getting a HUGE return.
 
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22890, his Bear Bytes were on Miami post FSU games, which is what I put out there. I had actually read it so it wasn't something I heard. He said they were 1-5 ATS the week after playing FSU. [they obviously did cover this game against Louisville yesterday so this went against the "byte". I also went back & found the ESPN post. It I below.:

"Post-Florida State letdown is real

Miami is 1-5 against the spread (ATS), with four outright losses, the week after playing Florida State over the past six years.


Ah I read that wrong, I thought it meant "after the FSU game, Miami sits at 1-5 ATS" not the week after playing FSU. My fault.
 
Ah I read that wrong, I thought it meant "after the FSU game, Miami sits at 1-5 ATS" not the week after playing FSU. My fault.

No prob. I thought a lot of what the Bear gave was pretty interesting. One of my newsletters always gives about 20 things just like that and I go thru it on Sunday to see how many came thru on the trends. 3 of Bears "stay away" games turned out to be runaways. Only the Purdue/NW game was close.
 
The line on Saturday's Rutgers/Ohio State game is 51.

Generally books will not post a money line on a game like that, but 5 Dimes did:

Anyone who bets $100 on Rutgers will win $225,000 if Rutgers pulls the upset.
To win $100 on tOSU, a bettor will have to put up... $675,000.
 
Early picks this week, I'll dive into deeper stuff either tonight or tomorrow. These lines stood out as being particularly off or valuable:

Louisiana Tech (+2.5) @ Marshall (also dig LT ML at +110 but just fired the spread for now)
Memphis (-10.5) @ Houston
Virginia Tech (-5.5) @ Georgia Tech (I had this line at 10.5)
West Virginia @ Kansas State (-14)

Strong lean on Navy (+8) at Notre Dame but I'm not eager to fire on that since I think it moves ND direction as the week goes on.
 
UNCA is +14, +750 on Bovada against Wake tonight. Seems like free money.
 
Ole Miss +21
Nebraska +14.5
Iowa -3
Navy +8.5
GA. Southern -6.5
Louisville/NC State U59 (L'ville has a bunch of offensive injuries; State's offense is inept)
UCLA/Utah U52

If Georgia State's QB had not gotten injured last week, would've liked them against App in a letdown spot. Probably will take the Cuse/Duke under as Cuse just fired their DC and will put an additional focus on defense this week. Like the VT side too, but GT has played better lately, and this is a flat spot for VT coming off ND and Bud Foster day and with Pitt and UVA coming up. Bama is 1-5 ATS off a loss, but can't trust Miss State.

The UMASS v. Northwestern line is hilarious: NW is favored by 40.5 as NW has a combined 38 points in their last 5 games, but UMASS is the worst defensive team in the country: last 4 games:

- 69 to La Tech,
- 56 to UCONN!!,
- 63 to Liberty (all in the first 3 quarters) and
- 63 to Army.

This is the resistible force against the movable object game.
 
Yeah I'm not touching the Northwestern game but I think that's something like 48-10. I don't see Northwestern scoring 50 against anyone even if they're terrible but damn is UMass bad. Northwestern has a bottom five offense in the country.
 
I have UNCA +13.5. Not because of any in depth analysis - Wake just hasn't shown they can beat anybody handily and UNCA seems better than their metrics indicate right now.
 
Me too.

Starting to get concerned WF is going to F us coming and going. The team sucks and when we all line up against WF, they will play a competent game.
 
ND lost their best DL and probable 1st round pick Julian Okwara to a leg injury against Duke. However, that was known on Monday.

There are strong trends that favor Navy. Think a lot of sharp money has come in on that side.
 
Yeah the line has dropped 2 points in the last 18 hours.

I had it at ND -5.5 and metrics have it closer than that it seems. If I'd seen it at Navy (+10) to open I would've bet that
 
Me too.

Starting to get concerned WF is going to F us coming and going. The team sucks and when we all line up against WF, they will play a competent game.

There's always the next game to double down on. Two solid efforts in a row? Inconceivable!
 
I see that 93% of the money is on Klempton to cover the 35 and everyone is flying to Vegas and betting the mortgage and you can’t blame us. Everyone knows Kerns won’t keep it close and it’s about a 57-10 type of game.

Easy money.
 
Was lucky enough to grab Marshall earlier in the week before the suspensions.

Love Iowa tomorrow. Think they’ll win bigly.

Also taking Ole Miss.

That’s probably it, but leaning on some others (Navy, Texas, Baylor).

Have a hard time pulling the trigger on Navy, mostly because we all know they are the most public team out there.
 
Bear Bytes:

Minnesota perspective this week
The last time a team 9-0 or better was a 'dog in regular-season vs. a three-loss team: 2012 Ohio State (+2) at Wisconsin. OSU won 21-14. The only time in the past 40 years a team 9-0 or better was a 3-point 'dog vs. a three-loss team: 1990 Wyoming. Lost 17-8 at Colorado State.

P.J. Fleck has won each of the past six games outright in which his team has entered as an underdog.

Iowa has won its past six games in which it has been favored by a field goal or less (dating to 2015). The Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS in those six games, with the only non-cover a one-point win this season in Ames as a 1.5-point favorite.

Does it get better than this?

UMass (1-9) faces Northwestern (1-8) this week. There were two games last year featuring teams that brought 1-8 or worse records through nine games into a game. WKU (1-9) beat UTEP (1-9), and Bowling Green (1-8) beat Central Michigan (1-9) last year. The only time a team 1-8 or worse was favored by more than 20 vs. an FBS opponent was 1994; 1-8 Georgia Tech lost to 2-8 Wake Forest 20-13 as a 23-point favorite. The Wildcats are around a 40-point favorite this week -- and have scored 38 points in their past five games combined.

You laying 'em or taking 'em?

Since 1996, there have been two Power 5 games with a spread of at least 50 points: 1996 Nebraska -50 vs. Missouri (won by 44) and 2003 Oklahoma -53 vs. Baylor (won by 38). Ohio State is currently -52 vs. Rutgers.

Cyclones on the wrong side of close games

Iowa State has now lost three games this year by one or two points. In the past 15 years, only two other Power 5 teams had at least three losses by one or two points in a single season -- both were named Nebraska (2009 and 2015).

Anchors Aweigh?

In 2007, Navy snapped a 43-game losing streak to Notre Dame. Including that game, the past four times Notre Dame was a single-digit favorite over Navy, the Irish lost outright in three of those games. They won the other game by six as a 4-point favorite.

Baylor a historic 9-0 home 'dog

The only time in the past 40 years a team was 9-0 or better and at least a 7-point underdog on its home field was 1993 when Notre Dame beat Florida State 31-24 as a 7-point 'dog. All told, there have been six 9-0 or better teams that were a home 'dog. Four of the six won outright.

2015: Oklahoma State vs. Baylor (-2,5), lost by 10
2008: Utah vs. TCU (-2), won by 3
2005: Alabama vs. LSU (-3), lost by 3
1996: Florida State vs. Florida (-2,5), won by 3
1993: West Virginia vs. Miami (-5.5), won by 3
1993: Notre Dame vs. Florida State (-7), won by 7

Baylor currently is a 10-point home underdog against Oklahoma.

The 26 total 9-0 or better 'dogs in the regular season over the past 40 years (including road games) have gone 11-15 SU and 14-11-1 ATS.

In its last six games as an underdog, Baylor is 6-0 ATS with five outright wins. In 46 games as an underdog, Baylor coach Matt Rhule is 32-14 ATS with 16 outright wins. In 18 games as a home 'dog, Rhule's teams are 13-5 ATS with seven outright wins.

Temple a home underdog again

In its past 17 games as a home underdog, Temple is 13-4 ATS (2-1 this year) with eight outright wins.

Spartans have been a cover machine lately vs. Michigan

Michigan State is 10-1 ATS with eight outright wins in its past 11 games with Michigan.

Georgia perspective this weekend

In the past 20 years, there have been 10 top-5 teams favored by a field goal or less on the road vs. a team ranked outside the top 10. The 10 have gone 2-8. The only two to win: 2016 Ohio State at Oklahoma and 2009 Cincinnati at Pitt.

Utah dominant since loss

Since losing at USC, Utah has won and covered all five of its games, winning by an average of 25.6 PPG.

Indiana, we're all for you ...

Indiana is 1-48 in its past 49 road games vs. ranked Big Ten teams. However, the Hoosiers have covered three straight and seven of their past 10 in this spot.

Clemson has been crushing teams

Since the one-point win at North Carolina, Clemson has won its five games by an average of 41.6 PPG and covered vs. each FBS team its faced.
 
The Bear's underdogs to play on money lines/parlays/round robins

Kent State +195
Minnesota +130
Wyoming +215
Navy +240
Missouri +225
UNLV +230
 
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