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Palin "seriously interested" in running

bobknightfan said:
All I would say is that if you are going to stage a coup, you had better make sure you are successful, because if you are not it is a career-ending decision. Any Democrat who screws this up and hands the presidency to the Republicans next year while they control both houses of congress is committing political suicide.
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how's that? would it really be a surprise for republicans to take the presidency after the most divisive president finishes his last two years of a (probably) mostly lame duck, turbulent run. the democratic base is not going to be energized
 
PhDeac said:
Hillary is a strong primary candidate and a vulnerable general candidate. You don't want somebody representing your party who is backed by 20+ years of hate.
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I generally agree, but who is really a strong general candidate from the GOP?
 
SkinsNDeacs said:
Bingo! Have you seen her on her book tour last year and the primary against Obama? She has been awful. Again, her invincibility is a myth. She had all the advantages in the world over Obama and he beat the dog shit out her. It is easy to see Obama as a giant now but in that primary he was a HUGE underdog and practically unknown.
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You had me until "practically unknown."
 
I'm not sure they'll need a strong candidate vs. Hillary. She'll run from Obama and try to appeal to white moderates and lose Obama's minority coalitions. Could be similar to 2000. Better map for Dems though. Hillary has a sizable margin of error.
 
PhDeac said:
I'm not sure they'll need a strong candidate vs. Hillary. She'll run from Obama and try to appeal to white moderates and lose Obama's minority coalitions. Could be similar to 2000. Better map for Dems though. Hillary has a sizable margin of error.
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Bill will go a long way to getting the black vote for his wife. And Hispanics like Hillary.
 
bobknightfan said:
You are acting like those right-wingers in the GOP that I was talking about. Are you suggesting that the minority coalitions are going to vote to hand over all three branches of the government (might as well say all four, because they will then control the USSC as well) to the Republicans because they may not like a few of the things that Hillary might say to white moderates?

This is a serious grown-ups' game we are playing here.
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i'm not confident the left has a real game plan or a grasp on the issues that will energize the base. the republicans learned their lessons and outgunned the scattered dems this cycle; remains to be seen if they can counter that for '16. i'm not confident.
 
PhDeac said:
I'm not sure they'll need a strong candidate vs. Hillary. She'll run from Obama and try to appeal to white moderates and lose Obama's minority coalitions. Could be similar to 2000. Better map for Dems though. Hillary has a sizable margin of error.
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I think they'll need a very, very strong candidate. Electoral maps haven't changed.
 
ImTheCaptain said:
i'm not confident the left has a real game plan or a grasp on the issues that will energize the base. the republicans learned their lessons and outgunned the scattered dems this cycle; remains to be seen if they can counter that for '16. i'm not confident.
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people on the left historically don't come out for midterms.
 
deacvision7 said:
Bill will go a long way to getting the black vote for his wife. And Hispanics like Hillary.
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Knowing he's the first gentleman could allow males to feel more comfortable voting for a female. Thoughts?
 
bobknightfan said:
Considering that the GOP has only won the popular vote in a presidential election one time in the last 27 years....and the population demographics that have been mostly responsible for that have continued to move inexorably against them while they blissfully continue policies responsible for all those losses....I would say that in the future it will be a surprise anytime the Republicans elect a president.
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Past Results Do Not Guarantee Future Performance
 
How many times has the GOP won the popular vote in the general election in the last 27 years?
 
an important question. the answer may surprise and will definitely inform you
 
No doubt that Hillary is a seriously flawed candidate, but there are a lot of unquantifiable intangibles that her candidacy brings to the table:

-First credible female presidential candidate.
-Bubba's appeal on the stump.
-Boehner's inability to control House 'Pubs which will give swing state moderates (who decide every close election) pause about giving the GOP complete control.
-The Tea Party/Establishment divide within the GOP. A conservative blogger has already vowed to release Jeb's log-term mistress' name the day he formally declares his candidacy.
-An open seat and a crowded GOP primary field. Depending on who you believe, either the Perry or Huntsman campaign was the source of leaks that sunk Herman Cain. You're dealing with ruthless hyper-ambitious people who will do anything to win.
-Possibility of a disgruntled Tea Party primary loser running as an independent in the general election.

Hillary's best match up is vs Jeb since it cancels out the dynasty/retread factor. Mitt works too. Christie would probably piss off a majority of female voters debating Hillary. Walker (who just beat a female candidate in WI), Kasich, Rand, and maybe Rubio could beat Hillary under the right circumstances, but it certainly won't be a cakewalk despite Hillary's obvious flaws. Odds were definitely against McCain in 2008 and either Obama or Hillary would have beaten him, but Dennis Kucinich wouldn't have.
 
An open seat and a crowded GOP primary field. Depending on who you believe, either the Perry or Huntsman campaign was the source of leaks that sunk Herman Cain. You're dealing with ruthless hyper-ambitious people who will do anything to win.
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I feel as though this is the biggest one, aside from there being no standout GOP leader.

It's like the saying about having 2 goalies...what you really have is 0 goalies.
 
JamesSokolove said:
How many times has the GOP won the popular vote in the general election in the last 27 years?
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1988, 2004?

There's no doubt the Dems can easily win the popular vote because they've got the major population centers on the East/West coast on lock.
 
Shorty said:
Can you even begin to imagine how pumped up Bill is to be back in the White House, but without all that messy president stuff to preoccupy him?
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Especially now that First Ladies can have actual power and wield it (I think the accomplishments of Michelle may go down as part of the positive legacy of the Obama admin).
 
bobknightfan said:
Considering that the GOP has only won the popular vote in a presidential election one time in the last 27 years....and the population demographics that have been mostly responsible for that have continued to move inexorably against them while they blissfully continue policies responsible for all those losses....I would say that in the future it will be a surprise anytime the Republicans elect a president.
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bobknightfan said:
Nobody. And I repeat: The Republicans have won the popular vote in a presidential election only one time in the last 27 years. The changing population demographics, combined with the fanatical ideological bent of the GOP today, is making it almost impossible for the Republicans to win the presidency...unless the Democrats self-destruct....and that is not going to happen. Progressives...of which I am one...might prefer someone else to Hillary, but letting the Republicans take the presidency while they control both houses of congress would be disastrous for this country. And progressives fully understand that. This is where we are different from the right-wingers in the Republican Party.

Bill Clinton alone is going to be a powerful asset in the election. That man could have won every presidential election that has been held since 1988 if he had been the candidate.
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bobknightfan said:
Republicans do not believe that global warming is real, and judging by their policies they must not believe that changing population demographics is real, either. They should note, though, that they have only won the popular vote in a presidential election one time in the last 27 years.
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27 YEARS
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
No doubt that Hillary is a seriously flawed candidate, but there are a lot of unquantifiable intangibles that her candidacy brings to the table:

-First credible female presidential candidate.
-Bubba's appeal on the stump.
-Boehner's inability to control House 'Pubs which will give swing state moderates (who decide every close election) pause about giving the GOP complete control.
-The Tea Party/Establishment divide within the GOP. A conservative blogger has already vowed to release Jeb's log-term mistress' name the day he formally declares his candidacy.
-An open seat and a crowded GOP primary field. Depending on who you believe, either the Perry or Huntsman campaign was the source of leaks that sunk Herman Cain. You're dealing with ruthless hyper-ambitious people who will do anything to win.
-Possibility of a disgruntled Tea Party primary loser running as an independent in the general election.

Hillary's best match up is vs Jeb since it cancels out the dynasty/retread factor. Mitt works too. Christie would probably piss off a majority of female voters debating Hillary. Walker (who just beat a female candidate in WI), Kasich, Rand, and maybe Rubio could beat Hillary under the right circumstances, but it certainly won't be a cakewalk despite Hillary's obvious flaws. Odds were definitely against McCain in 2008 and either Obama or Hillary would have beaten him, but Dennis Kucinich wouldn't have.
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Let the cannibalization begin.
 
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