• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

OFFICIAL 2016 Foreign Elections Thread

From the NYT - analysis of the Polish election and what it means (basically - yet another crazy right wing European country that wants to be part of the EU for the cash, but not in any other way). The eastern European states are effectively becoming the United States south - heavily dependent on funds from the rest of the Union, but defiantly fighting against social change in any form it's presented. The situation with Poland is a little bit extra crazy because the current EU President is Polish and from a centrist party that the new majority Law and Justice party hates venomously. They will have to choose to support him (and potentially weaken themselves domestically) or not (and then weaken the little influence Poland has in EU affairs). Also, Law and Justice last time in the majority was 10 years ago and such a disaster they were immediately voted out (they spent half of it antagonizing Germany to nothing but the detriment of the Polish economy).

And not shockingly, Law and Justice is patterned after Hungary's Fidesz party. At one point the head of Law and Justice claimed "We will have a Budapest in Warsaw". Have fun with fucking your country as hard as Orban has fucked his. When Putin is your best (only?) friend, it's never a good sign.


Many of the party's supporters take for granted the EU funds that drive growth, and the freedom to easily cross European borders for travel and work. But at the same time they often resist making sacrifices themselves or changing their deeply traditional mindset, for example by accepting gay marriage or other liberal Western values.

"They welcome the EU if it brings funds but not if it brings migrants and the Western decadent lifestyle," Kucharczyk said. He argues that the party won such a decisive victory because it made people believe that it could "create an invisible wall around Poland," allowing Poles to keep all the things they like about EU membership while insulating them from what they don't like.
Click to expand...
 
Poland's biggest problem right now (like much of central and eastern Europe) is a rapidly aging and falling population. Net migration has been negative for more than 15 years now, and the drain on the economy from that has been tremendous (especially since it's mostly young people of working age who are leaving).

Law and Justice is going to very likely make that worse. Poland, like a good chunk of it's neighbors, is going to be a broken country populated only by the elderly within 25 years if they don't make massive and substantial changes. Or they could just double down on xenophobia and social conservatism and see how that ends ...
 
Here's Poland's population pyramids (you can edit out "Poland" and replace it with pretty much every eastern European nation right now, especially those that have turned ultra right wing conservative):

Very healthy young population in 1991

Poland1991.gif



Dying off young population currently in 2015

pl_popgraph_2014.bmp



Absolutely broken population (almost twice as many women 60+ than any other demographic? that's completely and utterly unsustainable) in 2050

pl-2050.png
 
Last edited:
Looks like Poland could use an influx of young immigrant workers.
 
Shortly after Canada's Tories got pwned, the UK's Tories have been pwned by the Lords, who have blocked cuts to tax credits for poor folks. Constitutional crisis coming.
 
I'm sure all the Poles are thankful for all the friendly advice from vad, the NYTimes, and Ph but since they are a lot closer to the problems, are far more familiar with the situation, and will certainly have to live with the consequences of their decisions - unlike these well-meaning friendly advisors - maybe we should just let them sort things out.
 
sailordeac said:
I'm sure all the Poles are thankful for all the friendly advice from vad, the NYTimes, and Ph but since they are a lot closer to the problems, are far more familiar with the situation, and will certainly have to live with the consequences of their decisions - unlike these well-meaning friendly advisors - maybe we should just let them sort things out.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately, they are part of a political union of which I'm a resident of and pay taxes into ... so I have to live with their decisions as well. And right now, the eastern part of the EU (with a few exceptions) is driving off a cliff and hiring drivers to stand on the gas pedal for them to do it faster.
 
The rules were made by the Western European countries when they formed the European Union. The Eastern European ones joined an organization with established rules. If the rules are bad, the West has mainly itself to blame.

As for paying taxes to Austria, you have all my sympathies.
 
sailordeac said:
The rules were made by the Western European countries when they formed the European Union. The Eastern European ones joined an organization with established rules. If the rules are bad, the West has mainly itself to blame.

As for paying taxes to Austria, you have all my sympathies.
Click to expand...

And if they don't like the rules, they didn't have to join. The eastern states are basically giant cash sponges right now, and are refusing to participate in the Union in any other manner.

And if the price to live in Austria over Hungary or Poland is a higher tax bill ... sign me up. Plenty of Hungarians and Poles are choosing to do so every year - don't see many Austrians doing the reverse. At some point the eastern states of the EU have to look at themselves and go "why do our populations constantly want to leave, especially the youngest and brightest".
 
vadimivich said:
And if they don't like the rules, they didn't have to join. The eastern states are basically giant cash sponges right now, and are refusing to participate in the Union in any other manner.

And if the price to live in Austria over Hungary or Poland is a higher tax bill ... sign me up. Plenty of Hungarians and Poles are choosing to do so every year - don't see many Austrians doing the reverse. At some point the eastern states of the EU have to look at themselves and go "why do our populations constantly want to leave, especially the youngest and brightest".
Click to expand...

Your effort to present poor Western Europeans being exploited by Eastern Europeans is hilarious, and you'll get laughed out of any room with informed and knowledgeable people for saying such silly things.
 
sailordeac said:
Your effort to present poor Western Europeans being exploited by Eastern Europeans is hilarious, and you'll get laughed out of any room with informed and knowledgeable people for saying such silly things.
Click to expand...

No one says that Western Europe is being "exploited" - there's clear benefits (largely in terms of security with the larger buffer between western Europe and Russian influence and also the huge benefit that tons of young, skilled eastern European workers have brought into western economies). That being said, there is no doubt that many political parties in eastern Europe are refusing to participate fully in the Union and attempt to avoid any responsibility. Especially the larger and wealthier of those countries (Poland, Hungary and to some extent Czech Republic) which should beginning to step up and participate as leaders in the region and key members of the Union, not merely yet another state banging along at the back with Romania and Bulgaria.

The ridiculous insular, xenophobic and religiously conservative bumfucks running a few of those countries are doing their own citizens a huge disservice. The EU is a tremendous benefit and opportunity for them, and they are trying as hard as possible to look the gift horse straight in the fucking mouth and then walk away.
 
TownieDeac said:
I enjoy watching sailor get decimated in threads about Europe.
Click to expand...

He has a gift of not realizing how terrible he is getting destroyed though. Because, you know, "friends that know stuff" that he has.
 
dv7 and Townie know little to nothing about Eastern Europe. Their criticisms of what I say on this subject are simply uninformed or disinformed.
 
Law and Justice has said they want Europe to work for Poland, not the other way around. That's exactly what the EU has done for Poland (and Law and Justice doesn't want to give up any of the money poured into Poland from the West, they just want to be able to skip participating in the EU wide activities they don't like ... BUT NOT THAT MONEY SPIGOT, THAT PART IS AWESOME). Hungary actually gets an even higher percentage of it's Gross National Income from EU spending than Poland ... guess that's why Law and Justice wants to copy Orban.

140514b-page-001.jpg
 
And look - there's nothing wrong with EU spending being heavily tilted towards the poorer, post-Communist states. The entire Union benefits from better roads, rail links and strong agriculture sectors in those countries. It's just galling that when asked to bear even the tiniest portion (FULLY FUNDED OF COURSE) of the responsibilities of the Union ... those same countries scream and kick and swear. Tough luck, that's part of joining a Union.

Part of it is xenophobic, part of it is resentment to this day of the Second World War and part of is the hugely conservative religious communities in those countries that oppose any form of social change. It's no mistake that Orban, Law and Justice and others from the far right in eastern Europe (Putin included - hell, he wrote the blue print on this) have been so closely involved with the official religions of those countries and often use heavily religious commentary in their speeches, etc.
 
1. Law and Justice dominates in Poland's (formerly-Russian) east.
2. Therefore it sucks?

Is there a flaw in my argument here?
 
Looks like the Mayor of Buenos Aires, Mauricio Macri, will win the runoff election which took place today in Argentina. Big turnaround as polls had him down significantly before the initial election and he looks to have won this runoff comfortably.
 
In a pretty huge statement, the opposition party in Venezuela won big taking two thirds of the seats in the National Assembly. First time Chavistas have lost since 1999.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top