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Democratic Candidates for POTUS, 2016 edition

Liquid Karma said:
Hillary strikes me as similar to Romney in the "wants it too much" sense.

That said, if she gets elected I think she would do a credible job.
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That is exactly what I think. I actually think Hillary would be a good President...and I think Romney would have been a good President as well.
 
There was no hype for Hillary among my Facebook friends. Not to generalize but you think there would much more. My friends are generally left leaning and political aware and highly educated. Two white female academics in their late 30s posted anti-Hillary messages to a great deal of agreement.
 
PhDeac said:
There was no hype for Hillary among my Facebook friends. Not to generalize but you think there would much more. My friends are generally left leaning and political aware and highly educated. Two white female academics in their late 30s posted anti-Hillary messages to a great deal of agreement.
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That is funny...I was just thinking the exact same thing. There were only two comments about it on my facebook wall. One from a single female lawyer in Pittsburgh who is (and always has been) a huge Hillary fan. One from a bitter divorced guy that is anti-feminism that said "if you have anything critical to say about hilary clinton you are a misogynist". Other than that...crickets.
 
PhDeac said:
There was no hype for Hillary among my Facebook friends. Not to generalize but you think there would much more. My friends are generally left leaning and political aware and highly educated. Two white female academics in their late 30s posted anti-Hillary messages to a great deal of agreement.
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This is exactly how I feel. She's just unnatural and unlikeable. I was at my sister's over the weekend. She's very conservative and was in utter disbelief that I thought Hillary was going to win (because she has no real Dem challenger and the Pub slate is awful). She was watching MTP yesterday morning, and I found it interesting that the commentators were saying she's stale and doesn't have a message. Yeah liberal media, keep calling Hillary stale. That's a great adjective to call a female.

Since the radio and TV era started, she'd be only the 2nd President utterly lacking in charm and personality - the other being Nixon. So it would be a fairly impressive feat for her to pull it off. And 1 of the trickiest issues she'll have to deal with is finding the correct balance for how much to use Bubba.
 
cville deac said:
This is exactly how I feel. She's just unnatural and unlikeable. I was at my sister's over the weekend. She's very conservative and was in utter disbelief that I thought Hillary was going to win (because she has no real Dem challenger and the Pub slate is awful). She was watching MTP yesterday morning, and I found it interesting that the commentators were saying she's stale and doesn't have a message. Yeah liberal media, keep calling Hillary stale. That's a great adjective to call a female.

Since the radio and TV era started, she'd be only the 2nd President utterly lacking in charm and personality - the other being Nixon. So it would be a fairly impressive feat for her to pull it off. And 1 of the trickiest issues she'll have to deal with is finding the correct balance for how much to use Bubba.
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All true, but...

Thanks to a huge built in electoral college advantage, first woman (single largest voting bloc), changing demographics, and the Bubba factor, she's still going to be tough to beat, warts, server, and all. Walker and Cruz aren't exactly JFK and Obama. Jeb and Clinton cancel the dynasty factor out. Rubio and Paul have the best shot, but both are first term Senators, just like Obama.

GOP will trash HRC relentlessly during their primaries in a clumsy manner, which won't help them in a general election. No Dems are going to trash Hillary in a primary, so Bubba won't go after anyone until the general election. He's still beloved in swing states and will be able to be deployed wherever they need him. Add Castro as the VP and Dems have a pretty easy general election. Don't see any decent GOP VP to pair with Rubio who adds much electorally and doesn't draw unwanted attention to Rubio's inexperience. GOP primary voters will be overconfident and nominate a dorky social conservative ticket like Walker/Cruz.
 
cville deac said:
This is exactly how I feel. She's just unnatural and unlikeable. I was at my sister's over the weekend. She's very conservative and was in utter disbelief that I thought Hillary was going to win (because she has no real Dem challenger and the Pub slate is awful). She was watching MTP yesterday morning, and I found it interesting that the commentators were saying she's stale and doesn't have a message. Yeah liberal media, keep calling Hillary stale. That's a great adjective to call a female.

Since the radio and TV era started, she'd be only the 2nd President utterly lacking in charm and personality - the other being Nixon. So it would be a fairly impressive feat for her to pull it off. And 1 of the trickiest issues she'll have to deal with is finding the correct balance for how much to use Bubba.
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Answer: A lot.


See:

deacvision7 said:
I'd argue he was fortunate to run against two woeful opponents. Gore was an idiot for running from Clinton's record. (just like Dems in 2014 were idiots for running from Obama's record.)

Democrats are such wussies and just suck. Ugh.
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Hillary's campaign has already made it pretty clear that they would prefer not to use Bill that much. He's doing a lot of peripheral stuff though.
 
Deadbolt said:
Nate Silver's evaluation: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-begins-the-2016-campaign-and-its-a-toss-up/

Basically, we don't know a ton yet because it's too early, but it's not the slam dunk Hilary supporters envision.
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Silver is hedging, but this chart is telling.

silver-feature-hrcpop-new.png


Obama and Hillary are by far more popular than the Republican field. I don't think anybody can argue any of the Pubs is going to be more likable as they become more known.
 
She would do well to keep Bill at arm's length. He did a good job of sinking her 8 years ago.
 
SkinsNDeacs said:
She would do well to keep Bill at arm's length. He did a good job of sinking her 8 years ago.
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Not sure that I'd go that far, but he wasn't effective as an attack dog during the primary. Yet he was a help to Obama at the convention and in the general. I'd think they wouldn't need him much at all in the weak primary but will use him in competitive states where he's popular.
 
Bill was a problem for Hillary in the primary, but a huge asset to Obama in the general. If all Hillary has is an extended general, use Bill often.

Here's another example of the tepid support from my Facebook friends. This one is from a female grad student in her late 20s, someone who should be in Hillary's wheelhouse. She posted this article about how Hillary's announcement included historic support for the LGBT community: http://www.hrc.org/blog/entry/clint...historic-representation-of-lgbt-individuals-f

She said, "I am aware that Clinton is a problematic candidate (but really, who wouldn't be?), but I am sooo excited!! Hillary 2016!!"

She commented on that post with this:

"And to pay deference to the not-so-greatness of Clinton as a candidate:" https://www.jacobinmag.com/2015/03/hillary-clinton-womens-rights-feminism/?hc_location=ufi
[h=2]Hillary Clinton’s Empowerment[/h][h=3]Hillary Clinton isn’t a champion of women’s rights. She’s the embodiment of corporate feminism.
[/h]
The people I know who on paper should be the most excited about Hillary are tepid at best.
 
PhDeac said:
Silver is hedging, but this chart is telling.

silver-feature-hrcpop-new.png


Obama and Hillary are by far more popular than the Republican field. I don't think anybody can argue any of the Pubs is going to be more likable as they become more known.
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I expect Rubio and possibly Walker to rise up as the top challengers. Walker may skew too far right and leave it open to Rubio. If that happens, Clinton could struggle against Rubio.
 
Walker is at even simply because people don't know him.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/03/clinton-leads-walker-in-wisconsin.html

Walker's approval numbers have also significantly dipped over the last few months though. Right before the election last fall we found him with a 49/47 approval spread. That's now dropped to 43/52. His numbers with both Democrats and Republicans are pretty much where they were four months ago. But he's seen a large decline with independents- where he was on narrowly positive ground with them before the election at a 48/45 spread, he's now dropped down to 36/57. The new right to work law is likely part of what's causing Walker problems- only 42% of voters support it, pretty much mirroring his approval rating.
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Walker is underwater where people do know him.
 
Bubba's popular enough that he'd make the GOP spend more time and money in WI, FL, and KY than they normally would even if Walker, Rubio, Jeb, or Rand were on the ticket. Will hurt GOP from expanding the map. All HRC needs is Florida or Virginia and Ohio if she holds states that Bubba and Obama won twice. Bubba vs Walker or Cruz isn't a fair fight.
 
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