Chicago Cubs Thread - Playoff Push Pending

I like the idea of signing Gennett. He is one season removed from being an All-Star and his career numbers are good.

Ross needs to make decisions at 2B and CF and allow his choices enough time to prove themselves. Joe looked at those positions as opportunities to give multiple players plate appearances. The results were lousy. Players don't want to platoon, they want to start and play every day. That is the prize that supplies urgency, not playing every third day.

It might be time to trust some pitchers in the organization. If Chatwood can be moved to provide financial relief, do it. If not, he should compete with Mills for the 5th starter position. Mills stuff won't impress but he has delivered when given the opportunity. He might be a Hendricks clone and the time to find out may be now. Maples and Underwood are out of options. Neither has been given an extended chance in Chicago. Maybe the confidence shown by a manager who was a catcher and an extended audition can make the difference.

My take on Almora is that the Cubs asked for more power and he regressed trying to supply it. He tried to pull the ball too often. He is a line drive hitter to all fields capable of a .300+ average. Teams lose the skills a player can provide asking for a skill they don't have. This happens a lot. It is often the reason a change of scenery allows a player to reach their potential. Best example in Cubs history is Lou Brock. The Cubs could use a .300 hitter who makes contact and doesn't strike out much. Almora may be the answer.

Pilchard said:

I'm a neutral observer, but don't see the Cubs as in win now mode. So, trading prospects now is more likely to delay future success than to lead to short-term glory. Also, all of the Cubs prospects are ranked 51 to 100. So, they are either not projected to future superstars or are some distance away from actually helping.

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Only one is close, and he likely isnt a superstar. Brennan Davis is likely the best of the bunch, wouldn't be surprised to see him in the top 30 at midseason or next season. Marquez too, a starter with a consistent 100 MPH fastball. Hoerner moved to the pros after less than 100 games in the minors and held his own, but he is likely not going to be a superstar because he doesn't have a lot of raw power or a real position. Amaya started with no real expectations, but has gotten better every year - still probably 2-3 years away, but the Cubs scouts have said he is special and the reason they are entertaining trading Willy with Caratini being the stopgap.

Also, wouldnt be surprised to see Cory Abbott hit the top 100 at midseason too. Its enough that if the Cubs do need to make a move, they can. Also, next year is supposedly the last year of their window, from their original plan (Bryant, Baez, Rizzos last year and last option on Lester) - so wouldn't be surprised to see them go after it if they stand pat now, but are ahead at the deadline.

BlackjackMc said:

I like the idea of signing Gennett. He is one season removed from being an All-Star and his career numbers are good.

Ross needs to make decisions at 2B and CF and allow his choices enough time to prove themselves. Joe looked at those positions as opportunities to give multiple players plate appearances. The results were lousy. Players don't want to platoon, they want to start and play every day. That is the prize that supplies urgency, not playing every third day.

It might be time to trust some pitchers in the organization. If Chatwood can be moved to provide financial relief, do it. If not, he should compete with Mills for the 5th starter position. Mills stuff won't impress but he has delivered when given the opportunity. He might be a Hendricks clone and the time to find out may be now. Maples and Underwood are out of options. Neither has been given an extended chance in Chicago. Maybe the confidence shown by a manager who was a catcher and an extended audition can make the difference.

My take on Almora is that the Cubs asked for more power and he regressed trying to supply it. He tried to pull the ball too often. He is a line drive hitter to all fields capable of a .300+ average. Teams lose the skills a player can provide asking for a skill they don't have. This happens a lot. It is often the reason a change of scenery allows a player to reach their potential. Best example in Cubs history is Lou Brock. The Cubs could use a .300 hitter who makes contact and doesn't strike out much. Almora may be the answer.

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Almora was never going to be an offensive juggernaut, but if he could be a league average bat and a superior fielder, thats fine. His decline in the field is much, much more concerning. His other key strength was hitting lefties, and that fell off the map too. His BABIP was abnormally low, so you would assume some positive regression there, but if his fielding is below average and he can't hit lefties, there isn't much value, even in a rotation spot with JHey and Schwarbs.

Almora dropped from 11th to 33rd in outs above average. That's still better than 59 outfielders that qualified. He has the ability to be an elite defensive CF. The team needs that with a LF who has finished at 86, 79 and 82 the past three years. There are only 90 qualifiers. Castellanos has finished 78 and 87 the past two years. The idea of Castellanos and Schwarber in the outfield on an everyday basis was a disaster, despite great late season offense from both players. Defense and pitching win championships, especially when most teams have high powered offenses.

Baseball is shooting itself in the foot with the emphasis on power and tolerating strikeouts.

BlackjackMc said:

Almora dropped from 11th to 33rd in outs above average. That's still better than 59 outfielders that qualified. He has the ability to be an elite defensive CF. The team needs that with a LF who has finished at 86, 79 and 82 the past three years. There are only 90 qualifiers. Castellanos has finished 78 and 87 the past two years. The idea of Castellanos and Schwarber in the outfield on an everyday basis was a disaster, despite great late season offense from both players. Defense and pitching win championships, especially when most teams have high powered offenses.

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Eh, thats true. Schwarbs still has one of the best OF arms in the league, which counts for something. Nick wasn't near as bad at Wrigley as he was at Comerica or whatever Detroits field is now. The problem is, a top 10 OF can be a light hitter with a sub .330 OBP and still be valuable - a top 40 OF can't be. He's also not a plus runner or anything either. Still, it was only 1 really bad year - but it was really bad, outside of Descalso he was by far and away the worst regular player on the Cubs last year, even taking into account his defense. Dunno, I think Kevin Pillar would be a better option, he is basically a slightly better version of Almora at everything and he isn't going to cost much more, if any.

Buttermaker said:

Baseball is shooting itself in the foot with the emphasis on power and tolerating strikeouts.

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Hear lots of people saying this - I havent seen any real research to back it up, but it makes sense. The time between balls in play now is something crazy, like 4 times longer between balls hit than 15 years ago. On the other side, baseball has always been "boring", not sure this makes it any more so. If you go to a game, or watch a game, you might see a ton more strikeouts, but likely see a lot more homeruns, which would also seem to be what most people remember.

All speculation on my part, I still have a good time going to games, I think it's more that there are so many more things to do in 2020 then there was even in 2000, and with ticket prices continuing to go up, its tougher to take a family to more than a couple of games per year, even if you live close. My guess is, with the raised ticket prices and profit sharing, most teams don't care about sellouts outside of the public ridicule they get for having like 5,000 people at a game. Still a lot of corporate money going into each team

DaDeacs said:

Only one is close, and he likely isnt a superstar. Brennan Davis is likely the best of the bunch, wouldn't be surprised to see him in the top 30 at midseason or next season. Marquez too, a starter with a consistent 100 MPH fastball. Hoerner moved to the pros after less than 100 games in the minors and held his own, but he is likely not going to be a superstar because he doesn't have a lot of raw power or a real position. Amaya started with no real expectations, but has gotten better every year - still probably 2-3 years away, but the Cubs scouts have said he is special and the reason they are entertaining trading Willy with Caratini being the stopgap.

Also, wouldnt be surprised to see Cory Abbott hit the top 100 at midseason too. Its enough that if the Cubs do need to make a move, they can. Also, next year is supposedly the last year of their window, from their original plan (Bryant, Baez, Rizzos last year and last option on Lester) - so wouldn't be surprised to see them go after it if they stand pat now, but are ahead at the deadline.

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Cory Abbott has less than a zero shot at any reputable top 100 list. That being said he also has a shot to be a very productive MLB starter for a long time. A classic very high floor, lower ceiling type of guy. Extremely competitive and just gets it done despite not having the big time projection physically.

Amaya has almost zero chance of hitting the bigs this year as he has yet to play AA. He will probably start there this year though and maybe he catches fire (Myrtle Beach is an awful place to be a hitter so don't read too much into his raw stats last year).

Brennen Davis completely blasted the Midwest League. OPS+ of 170 and an ISO+ of 197. Those were both tops among all 19 yr. olds in that league (a 21 year old type league btw) - including a couple of highly touted 1st round draft picks who started off as Top 60 prospects this past summer bc of their pre-draft reps.

Here are some names to watch down on the farm not named Brennen Davis (2021 or 2022 arrival), Miguel Amaya (2021 arrival), Marquez (2021 arrival), Hoerner (2020 arrival) or Alzolay (2020 arrival):

Kohl Franklin (SP)
Ryan Jensen (SP who could move very fast as a reliever bc he has two plus pitches)
Michael McAvene (RP who they are trying to make a starter)
Richard Gallardo (SP - insane raw stuff but control has yet to arrive - he's still a teenager)
Chris Morel (3B - ++ defensively and incredible bat speed. He is NOT Javy Baez, but when you watch him you are reminded of how Javy plays the game)
Kevin Made (SS - a top international signing last Summer. Still a teenager)
Chase Strumpf (2B) He will move quickly. Very high floor, MLB regular type ceiling.
Riley Thompson (SP). Two plus pitches and arguably a ++ fastball. Another guy who would move quickly as a reliever who they are intent to try and make a starter.

The Cubs are in line to land the No. 1 international signee this coming July. He would immediately be a Top 50 prospect in all of baseball.

If I had to pick two guys to breakout and move into Top 100 consideration by the end of the year I'd go with Morel and Jensen. Franklin is also very intriguing. System has a lot of depth at catcher, SS and, gulp, pitching. It lacks power bats in a big way and outside of B. Davis and B. Marquez guys who look like potential stars. Marquez is a lefty with an 80 grade fastball. There are just 5 guys in the minor leagues in all of baseball who have any 80 grade tool. 4 of those are fastballs. Marquez is the only one who is a lefty. And he starts. And he holds velocity deep into games. And he has 55 grade slider and an evolving change up. Please stay healthy.

Everything the FO has done this offseason screams that they are going to retool this roster and hope to still have a shot this season. "Epyer" has flat out said the team will not be able to keep all the core players. So someone(s) is going to be traded. If they were to trade Kris Bryant (and I sure as hell hope they do not do so) that may get them 2-3 prospects with high floors and high upside in return.

BlackjackMc said:

Almora dropped from 11th to 33rd in outs above average. That's still better than 59 outfielders that qualified. He has the ability to be an elite defensive CF. The team needs that with a LF who has finished at 86, 79 and 82 the past three years. There are only 90 qualifiers. Castellanos has finished 78 and 87 the past two years. The idea of Castellanos and Schwarber in the outfield on an everyday basis was a disaster, despite great late season offense from both players. Defense and pitching win championships, especially when most teams have high powered offenses.

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At the Cubs convention the FO said something to the effect of Ian Happ is a guy who should be getting 500 AB's a year. I think you can do the math on what that could mean for Almora if the manager concurs.

If Happ hits like he did after his recall last year he will get 500 AB's and he will earn the CF job. If he performs like he did in 2018 he will be fortunate to earn a place on the bench. That's the blessing and curse of the Cubs. Almora, Happ, Schwarber and Heyward have an incredibly high ceiling but they could crater as well. I'm confident that Bryant, Rizzo, Baez and Contreras/Caratini will produce. Who else? If Bote could duplicate his MLB stats and defend at 2B that ? is solved. There are enough quality offensive players and solid defenders to win the Central. Pitching and the urgency to win are the big question marks.

BlackjackMc said:

If Happ hits like he did after his recall last year he will get 500 AB's and he will earn the CF job. If he performs like he did in 2018 he will be fortunate to earn a place on the bench. That's the blessing and curse of the Cubs. Almora, Happ, Schwarber and Heyward have an incredibly high ceiling but they could crater as well. I'm confident that Bryant, Rizzo, Baez and Contreras/Caratini will produce. Who else? If Bote could duplicate his MLB stats and defend at 2B that ? is solved. There are enough quality offensive players and solid defenders to win the Central. Pitching and the urgency to win are the big question marks.

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In 2016 their starters had the best ERA in baseball. In the playoffs it was performances from their starters that kept them in games and ultimately let them win the World Series. Having Chapman save everyone's bacon in game 5 of the World Series didn't hurt either. Came into a 1 run game with a man on 2nd and one out. 2.2 innings later the Cubs were headed back to Cleveland down 3-2 in the series.

I was watching a video on "The Rebuild" and even when Heyward was signed the talking heads said he was not a great hitter and never would be - but he was an elite defender and a solid enough OBP guy. That has proven true.

More guys you can keep an eye on down on the farm. These are more lottery ticket types if the scouts are to be believed. But they all have showed something.


- Dakota Mekkes - Reliever. People love him. He's sort of like Abbott in that he is just effective. He did have some struggles at AAA last year, but so did every single pitcher in baseball (juiced ball).

- Manny Rodriguez. He had never pitched above A ball but will got to AA almost certainly to start the year. He was given a 40 man roster spot. He'll be a reliever. He has a plus plus curve ball. If you ignore his April last year he posted a 2.00 ERA with 53Ks in 36 innings and just 12 walks. And if you look at him from June forward that ERA drops down to 1.32. And he is effective against righties and lefties.

- Jack Patterson - One of just 8 pitchers in the minor leagues to post a GB% of over 60% and a strikeout percentage above 25%.

- Luis Verdugo - SS/3B - Scouts love his swing. Only 18 I think. Posted a .305 BA and a .367 OBP in 220 PA in Rookie ball last year.

- Jose Albertos - There is no denying the stuff. Injuries have derailed him and he has to improve his command

- Cam Sanders - Another guy who showed a lot of consistency as a starter last year. Low ceiling, perhaps a high floor. Not saying he's another Abbott, but if he continues as he did . . .

DeacMan said:

In 2016 their starters had the best ERA in baseball. In the playoffs it was performances from their starters that kept them in games and ultimately let them win the World Series. Having Chapman save everyone's bacon in game 5 of the World Series didn't hurt either. Came into a 1 run game with a man on 2nd and one out. 2.2 innings later the Cubs were headed back to Cleveland down 3-2 in the series.

I was watching a video on "The Rebuild" and even when Heyward was signed the talking heads said he was not a great hitter and never would be - but he was an elite defender and a solid enough OBP guy. That has proven true.

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Yes, but it seems the Cubs way overpaid for a guy who would never be a great hitter. I like Heyward, but his contract sucks.

DeacMan said:

More guys you can keep an eye on down on the farm. These are more lottery ticket types if the scouts are to be believed. But they all have showed something.


- Dakota Mekkes - Reliever. People love him. He's sort of like Abbott in that he is just effective. He did have some struggles at AAA last year, but so did every single pitcher in baseball (juiced ball).

- Manny Rodriguez. He had never pitched above A ball but will got to AA almost certainly to start the year. He was given a 40 man roster spot. He'll be a reliever. He has a plus plus curve ball. If you ignore his April last year he posted a 2.00 ERA with 53Ks in 36 innings and just 12 walks. And if you look at him from June forward that ERA drops down to 1.32. And he is effective against righties and lefties.

- Jack Patterson - One of just 8 pitchers in the minor leagues to post a GB% of over 60% and a strikeout percentage above 25%.

- Luis Verdugo - SS/3B - Scouts love his swing. Only 18 I think. Posted a .305 BA and a .367 OBP in 220 PA in Rookie ball last year.

- Jose Albertos - There is no denying the stuff. Injuries have derailed him and he has to improve his command

- Cam Sanders - Another guy who showed a lot of consistency as a starter last year. Low ceiling, perhaps a high floor. Not saying he's another Abbott, but if he continues as he did . . .

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Great list.

Cole Roederer is another one - high draft pick, had a good year in rookie ball and was shooting up to the top of the Cubs rankings, but took a step back last year in low A, granted he was only 19 and one of the youngest to start a season in low A for the Cubs in a long time. He has the ability to play CF and has a few years to develop, turned 20 in the offseason - Davis has taken away a lot of the prospect shine off Roederer as he is younger and more advanced, but that doesn't mean Roederer can't develop into a gap power CF with speed and good plate discipline, and a nice lefty swinger too.

A guy that can hopefully surprise and help in the bullpen this year is Dillon Maples. Has elite stuff, just can't find the plate. IN 22 major league innings he has given up 4 homeruns, walked 21 and struck out 38. Only problem is that he has never shown it at any level, but if the homeruns are an aberration, which it might be, he could be serviceable. The 3 batter minimum rule will probably weed him out, but driveline baseball rated him as having the 4th best "stuff" among all minor league relievers.

Health permitting, Maples needs to begin the year in Chicago. He has two elite pitches that can retire any batter. Like Chatwood. he needs to develop command and control. Until then he needs to learn how to survive. Chatwood found a way to survive last year. Put them together and let them develop. Ross will have plenty to learn as manager, but has a lot to offer as a hands on manager to a developing bullpen. I feel the same way about Underwood. Give them a legit opportunity early while everybody is trying to round into shape before hitting the discard button. Relief pitching is the art of putting multiple, consecutive, scoreless appearances together before you get clobbered.

BlackjackMc said:

Health permitting, Maples needs to begin the year in Chicago. He has two elite pitches that can retire any batter. Like Chatwood. he needs to develop command and control. Until then he needs to learn how to survive. Chatwood found a way to survive last year. Put them together and let them develop. Ross will have plenty to learn as manager, but has a lot to offer as a hands on manager to a developing bullpen. I feel the same way about Underwood. Give them a legit opportunity early while everybody is trying to round into shape before hitting the discard button. Relief pitching is the art of putting multiple, consecutive, scoreless appearances together before you get clobbered.

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They have signed up so many potential relievers that I think ST will be a blood bath. I've always been a Maples fan and felt like they need to just let him have a bit of run. If he doesn't stick now he never will with the Cubs.

DaDeacs said:

Great list.

Cole Roederer is another one - high draft pick, had a good year in rookie ball and was shooting up to the top of the Cubs rankings, but took a step back last year in low A, granted he was only 19 and one of the youngest to start a season in low A for the Cubs in a long time. He has the ability to play CF and has a few years to develop, turned 20 in the offseason - Davis has taken away a lot of the prospect shine off Roederer as he is younger and more advanced, but that doesn't mean Roederer can't develop into a gap power CF with speed and good plate discipline, and a nice lefty swinger too.

A guy that can hopefully surprise and help in the bullpen this year is Dillon Maples. Has elite stuff, just can't find the plate. IN 22 major league innings he has given up 4 homeruns, walked 21 and struck out 38. Only problem is that he has never shown it at any level, but if the homeruns are an aberration, which it might be, he could be serviceable. The 3 batter minimum rule will probably weed him out, but driveline baseball rated him as having the 4th best "stuff" among all minor league relievers.

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Yes, I should have added Roederer. I'm so impressed with B. Davis and what he did at the same age I just flat out overlooked him.

DeacMan said:

Yes, I should have added Roederer. I'm so impressed with B. Davis and what he did at the same age I just flat out overlooked him.

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If anyone is near Myrtle Beach for the start of the season, should be a great group of talented players to watch - with a good chance that they may start 3-4 Cubs regulars in a few years among Davis, Roederer, Strumpf and Morel.

Small sample size and all, but Lesters first outing of the spring has me concerned. Assuming he just ran a bunch of fastballs up there, but pitched to 9 batters, gave up a single, 2 doubles and 2 walks.

So far, Almoras new swing and Cubs catchers hitting home runs have been the highlight of the first few games. Also, Happ isn't being considered for the 2B job anymore, at least not as a main position - the battle appears to be between Kipnis, Hoerner, Garcia, Perez, Descalso and Asuaje. Kipnis is the early favorite to win the job, from the rumor mongerers, and Nico to start in AAA, but we have a month or so to see what happens.

Dusting this thread off. Hendricks looks fine, Darvish looks shaky, bullpen looks good outside of Cotton. Kipnis made the team, assume he will be opening day 2B. They tested Nico in CF last night, I guess the thought is another super sub. Kimbrel looks weird and still throws 95 MPH meatballs.

Assuming opening day team will be Willy / Riz / Kip / Baez / KB / Schwarbs / Happ / Heyward. Souza has looked ok and appears he and Almora are both going to be options against lefty starters. Descalso appears to be making the team which is a wasted spot - along with Nico and Boat in the IF.

Assuming Cubs are going to be able to hit, pitching is going to be the issue. Hendricks, Darvish and Lester and locked in. Lester has to turn into a crafty veteran at this point to get anything going, has looked very hittable all off season. Quintana won't be back until at least mid-season. Last two spots are Mills and Chatwood. Woof. We don't even have any real long relief behind them, except Cotton, who might not make the team. Bullpen/Middle relief may be ok with Ryan, Wick, Wieck, Jeffress and Underwood - looking like Sadler, Tepera and Winkler may make the team too, but haven't heard much about them.

Should be a decent run in the Central - lot of decent teams, nothing great. Cards, Brewers, Red all should have a shot.