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Chicago Cubs Thread - Playoff Push Pending

Reading a lot of stuff on Willson Contreras being actively shopped, from people that should have decent sources. I dont necessarily like it, but I understand it. He is basically a top 5 offensive catcher, with upside, and a bottom 5 defensive catcher if you factor in his lack of framing. Injuries are what hurt him the most - 2017 and this year he looked like a world beater at times, gets hurt, comes back and isn't the same hitter. He's still young, has 3 years of control and is cheap - he would fetch a bunch.

Replacing him is an issue - Amaya is on the farm, but probably still at least two years out. Vic is ok, but not great - would probably need to get someone that hits righties to platoon with him for at least 2020/2021. Dunno, I think Contreras brings more than just his numbers - but the Cubs are missing a few pieces and could use help rebuilding the system, so if you can move him for a couple arms with potential and someone to help now, its not the worst idea.

Also, the normal talking heads are saying that at least one of the big time guys with 1 year left of arb are going to be moved this year - Lindor, Betts and KB. Betts is a perfect fit on this team, but I cant see them backing up the truck for 1 year and no guarantee of a long term contract. Also, could potentially see them punt FA this year and go all in on Betts next year, but that is a gamble. Have seen some stuff on a Lindor trade too, but that move would be a Nico, Happ plus at least 1 other high piece for 1 year of Frankie, probably not worth.
 
I agree with your analysis. I depend on most of the info you provide because your interests are different than mine and you are a die hard Cub fan.

I'm ambivalent about the course of action the front office will take this off season. There is a strong core of position players capable of a championship. Add a couple of key pieces in trade to balance the offense and tighten the defense. Happ, Almora, Russell and Bote are still young and capable of solving the problems at 2B and CF if properly handled. But the team has been going in the wrong direction for three years and more aggressive measures might be necessary to change direction. Big names may need to move to accomplish that goal. Who gets moved may depend on who is willing to sign a long term contract and the cost of that contract as well as who brings the greatest return in value. The answers are probably in between the two extremes.

Pitching must be improved, either from within or from outside of the organization.

I get what you are saying about the trend line, but it is hard to say the team has gone the wrong direction for three years when your measurement of the "right" direction is a World Series championship. The team has been in contention for a title for each of the last 5 seasons. Titles are won on the back of consistently being in a position to win.

Agree with your larger point about the core of players in house being capable of contending yet again. In fact, I think you could subtract a significant piece and still be a very solid team. Personally I do not believe Almora or Russell can solve the problems at 2B or CF. Almora has never been an OBP guy, has limited pop and was touted for being a great defensive CF. This past season he was one of the worst CF's on defense (if not the worst) in all of baseball. Russell, talented as he is athletically, is a lost cause in terms of ever winning back fans. Those guys have minimal trade value right now. Nico Hoerner will likely get a shot at 2B. And Bote is a good utility player who they have under control given he already signed an extension. Happ is versatile and a switch hitter. He has probably the most trade value of the bunch. But he is nothing more than a useful piece in a trade and not a centerpiece, so why bother moving him.

I think the team really has to take a hard look at moving one or some combo of Bryant, Contreras and Schwarber if they really want to build greater depth and address larger needs. The farm system has more promise IMO that most talking heads are offering it at present. I believe there could be as any as 5 guys who are Top 100 players this time next year down on the farm when you consider some of the young arms and guys like Abbott and Marquez who have been consistently strong for good stretches of time. Couple them with Brennan Davis and the young catcher and that is 4 top 100 guys right there. But why hang onto all your core pieces if you know in two years you are going to have to let some of them go for cost reasons. For that reason alone I think they have to move at least one and perhaps two or even all three of those guys. Maybe you toss in Russell or Almora to sweeten the proverbial pot.

People say there are limited partners for a Bryant deal. I don't buy that for a second, especially if he loses his grievance and comes with two years of control. Teams like the Braves, Nationals, Padres, Dodgers and a host of AL teams who see their window as ripe should seriously consider making a move for him and have the depth in their farm system to do a deal. Contreras would draw a ton of interest. The Rays strike me as one team that would love to have him given he can also play in the OF in a pinch. And Schwarber's second half numbers belie a guy who could fetch a good return as well, even if not one as spectacular as the other two. Obviously potential partners hinge in part on decisions and successes teams have in the FA sweepstakes. Yes it is risky to trade for younger players but I think you have to really deepen the talent pool and spread out some of the heavy spending that comes along with having so many key players who started their service time within a handful of months of one another.
 
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Contreras would fetch a bunch. Caratini has good defensive numbers and improved offensively last year. He would need help. Contreras may be willing to sign a long term agreement for reasonable money. That would make a difference. That's true for Baez, Schwarber, Rizzo and Bryant.

Unless another team makes an offer too good to turn down, I think the Cubs proceed slowly this winter. The front office believed in the core of the team until they failed to make the playoffs. There has been a lot of change in admin/supporting roles and there is much to be done in hiring and defining coaches. I expect those areas to be completed before any players are moved. The benefit of new blood is new perspective and new philosophies. Get those, decide on a plan and then implement the plan.

Financial constraints make punting on free agents probable. There have been some good values on FA in late winter/early spring the past two years. The market has changed. There is no rush. Theo still believes in this team. They need help at lead off, 2B, CF and pitching. Three key players could make a big difference.

The biggest problem last year was the lack of a closer. If Kimbrel bounces back this team is much better. 10-12 more wins better.
 
Contreras would fetch a bunch. Caratini has good defensive numbers and improved offensively last year. He would need help. Contreras may be willing to sign a long term agreement for reasonable money. That would make a difference. That's true for Baez, Schwarber, Rizzo and Bryant.

Unless another team makes an offer too good to turn down, I think the Cubs proceed slowly this winter. The front office believed in the core of the team until they failed to make the playoffs. There has been a lot of change in admin/supporting roles and there is much to be done in hiring and defining coaches. I expect those areas to be completed before any players are moved. The benefit of new blood is new perspective and new philosophies. Get those, decide on a plan and then implement the plan.

Financial constraints make punting on free agents probable. There have been some good values on FA in late winter/early spring the past two years. The market has changed. There is no rush. Theo still believes in this team. They need help at lead off, 2B, CF and pitching. Three key players could make a big difference.

The biggest problem last year was the lack of a closer. If Kimbrel bounces back this team is much better. 10-12 more wins better.

I read the above, personally, as code for go all in on Whit Merrifield. Have to wonder what the Royals would command for him given he is cost controlled for a while still - not exactly the type of guy they should look to move.

Also, I don't think they are going to move slowly this offseason. While I do not expect them to go all in for a huge free agent signing, Theo and co. have said enough publicly to lead me to believe they will look to be active about making at least one big trade.

Also agree with your assessment on being able to bounce back and contend next year.
 
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Please no Whit Merrifield. If there is one thing this team doesn't need, its a 30-something guy that relies on speed and a crazy high babip to generate his value.
 
Good offensive catchers don't grow on trees. I'd like to see Contreras stay unless they get a really good deal for him. I didn't realize he's considered poor defensively. He has a good arm.
 
Nice to have some discussion. Not many (if any) Cub fans in my neck of the woods.

Here is something off the wall. I wonder if Schwarber would return to catching on a part time basis. I believe his low batting average and not catching may be linked. Catching requires repetitively tracking the direction and speed of a pitch. When he prepared to rejoin the Cubs for the World Series he did so by tracking the path of thousands of pitches. He hit .412. His rookie year as a catcher was his best offensive effort until the final two months of this season. He has improved but he will never be a Gold Glove candidate in the outfield. Just a thought.
 
Nice to have some discussion. Not many (if any) Cub fans in my neck of the woods.

Here is something off the wall. I wonder if Schwarber would return to catching on a part time basis. I believe his low batting average and not catching may be linked. Catching requires repetitively tracking the direction and speed of a pitch. When he prepared to rejoin the Cubs for the World Series he did so by tracking the path of thousands of pitches. He hit .412. His rookie year as a catcher was his best offensive effort until the final two months of this season. He has improved but he will never be a Gold Glove candidate in the outfield. Just a thought.

I think Schwarber is the best player to trade and have for a while. I don't think he should catch. He's OK now as an outfielder and has a pretty good arm out there. And I don't feel like his hitting issues are for a lack of discipline. He draws a fair number of walks. And, frankly, he hit .250 this year. He's no longer a hack.

Also disagree completely with the other poster re: Merrifield. The guy is 30 (not 30 something). He'll be maybe 34 when he is out of town. Low risk you see a huge drop off. And he is exactly what the club needs - a reliable hitter who is a plus defender at multiple positions on a cost controlled contract. He puts up 3-4 WAR a year. He has a career OPS+ of 112. He hit 16 home runs last year and stole 20 bases. He's a career .295 hitter and puts up a decent OBP (not incredible but good). He won't cost a friggin' fortune. And he's been playing in KC, not exactly a power hitters paradise. So while his average may drop a bit because the power alleys won't be as big, he'll likely hit for more power at Wrigley. His WAR last year was higher than the combined WAR of Schwarber, Happ, Russell and Almora.
 
Good offensive catchers don't grow on trees. I'd like to see Contreras stay unless they get a really good deal for him. I didn't realize he's considered poor defensively. He has a good arm.

He gets canned for not framing pitches well defensively. Not sure there's more to the negative views than that though. He'd fetch a good return. To me the issue for this team is the number of players who have to resigned. They simply cannot expect to afford Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Schwarber and Contreras all at once. They have to make some choices and they should do so when they have a shot at getting value in return (not in a rental fire sale). So try to retool the team by cutting on one or more of these players and getting a good cost controlled haul(s) in return. That's the game within the game they have to try and play IMO. Bryant is perhaps least likely to resign. Contreras is under the best cost control relative to his overall positional value and therefore may fetch the highest relative value.
 
Schwarber and Merrifield have about the same WAR and Whit has a .350 babip and Schwarbee has a .276.

Speed doesn't last. .350 babips dont last. He is cheap, that's the best thing going for him. I could be wrong, but I dont want to see the Cubs give up anything of value for him.
 
Schwarber and Merrifield have about the same WAR and Whit has a .350 babip and Schwarbee has a .276.

Speed doesn't last. .350 babips dont last. He is cheap, that's the best thing going for him. I could be wrong, but I dont want to see the Cubs give up anything of value for him.

I prefer data driven arguments. He's a career .296 hitter over four full MLB seasons. Each year his average has ticked up. So I don't buy into "it won't last". It has lasted. He's one of the best hitters in the game. This is a guy who will put up .285 average, .340+ OBP, 70+ RBI, 12+ HR, 20+ SB and an OPS+ of 110+ while fielding above average across the board. And you want to compare him to a left handed power hitter with limited range in LF who has yet to prove he can hit LHP? Yeah, Schwarber will put up bigger OPS numbers. That really isn't the point.

And the WAR's are not "about the same". 4,0 > 2.3. And a 15 WAR over 4 full seasons is >>>> than a 4.9 WAR over 3ish seasons.

I also don't buy into speed doesn't last. They aren't going to trade for him so he's playing in Wrigley when he's 35. He's 30.

The one thing he does not fix is the log jam of service time coming due at the same time. That alone may be reason enough not to pursue him. But he checks pretty much every box of what the front office has indicated it thinks is missing from the team - i.e. the offense has been feast or famine based on HRs and they'd like to diversify their ability to get runs on the board.
 
I wasn't comparing so much as you talked about WAR being equal. I was using fWAR, you might be using bWAR, dunno, in fWAR Schwarbs is 2.6 for 2019 and Whit is 2.9.

I agree with data arguments - Whits best years have come with babips over .350, the year he didn't have that, he slashed .288/.324/.784. Hes not really an above average defender - maybe average? He played half his innings at 2nd and half in the OF last year - his UZR and defensive metrics at 2nd put him squarely in the middle of the pack, right above Starlin Castro haha, his range is rated pretty low, but whatever. As a purely 2B, he isn't a bad player, which was never my point (he's also not a great player), he is going to cost a lot to get him - and the advanced projections for next year all have him taking a step back. And if he is in an OF rotation, he is clearly better than Almora, but he also showed some reverse splits last year, and has historically had more power against righties - so that would mean sitting down JHey or Schwarber, and I wouldn't fight too much on sitting JHey, but his OF defense is leaps and bounds better than Whits and Schwarbers, and I don't think you bench your best lefty power hitter against righties. And my point with speed was his best year he stole 45 bases in 55 attempts - last year he stole 20 bases in 30 attempts - there are a lot of factors in there, but one could definitely read that as him getting slower and losing value, and his baserunning value dropped significantly last year.

All this being said, your numbers aren't wrong, but I worry about people that buck the trend against standard ideas - there are definitely people that can consistently have high babips because they have higher exit velocity or speed to increase their chances, but it generally doesn't last. And I would rather see what Nico and Happ can grow into because their ceiling is higher than Whits.
 
Since its the offseason and the Bears and Bulls suck, I am all in on following the slightly above temperature stove going on.

Joel Sherman just wrote an article suggesting the Yanks could trade for Darvish. It would be Ellsbury+prospects for Yu, where Cubs would take on the $26 million left in jacobys contract and get decent prospects back for Yu. Hes got some connections, so can't imagine this is just a completely random thrown out there name (he also included Cueto and Mike Clevinger in the article) - but I don't see much of a scenario where the Cubs move Darvish. He has 4/$81 left, and seemingly gas in the tank - flipping him for cap relief for 2021-2023 would only make sense if the Cubs are planning on punting this FA (and 2020 season really) and going all in next year on Betts, but you would still be left with a gaping whole in the starting staff, which, is basically a gaping whole anyway outside of Hendricks.

It leads credence to the thoughts here that Theo and team is going to be heavily involved in a ton of stuff, interested to see what shakes out.
 
Brendan Morrow contemplating taking a minor league contract with the Cubs because he feels bad about how the last two years turned out. Uh, weird, but ok.
 
Since its the offseason and the Bears and Bulls suck, I am all in on following the slightly above temperature stove going on.

Joel Sherman just wrote an article suggesting the Yanks could trade for Darvish. It would be Ellsbury+prospects for Yu, where Cubs would take on the $26 million left in jacobys contract and get decent prospects back for Yu. Hes got some connections, so can't imagine this is just a completely random thrown out there name (he also included Cueto and Mike Clevinger in the article) - but I don't see much of a scenario where the Cubs move Darvish. He has 4/$81 left, and seemingly gas in the tank - flipping him for cap relief for 2021-2023 would only make sense if the Cubs are planning on punting this FA (and 2020 season really) and going all in next year on Betts, but you would still be left with a gaping whole in the starting staff, which, is basically a gaping whole anyway outside of Hendricks.

It leads credence to the thoughts here that Theo and team is going to be heavily involved in a ton of stuff, interested to see what shakes out.

They don't exactly have a farm system with much top end talent even if it is a pretty deep system. Would they move Deivi Garcia and Florial and another prospect who projects clearly as a potential depth piece on a ML roster? That's what it would take if I'm eating 26M on Ellsbury for a year and thereby turn Darvish into a 4 year $55M pitcher for them. To be clear, if the Cubs did this they'd be throwing in the towel on 2020 given the lack of pitching depth already.
 
Just to recap the Cubs current salary situation for 2020. They are locked in on payroll of around $185M already. For players with arbitration I'm putting an asterisk next to the number as the salary represents a reasoned estimate. When you look at all the UFA's going into the 2022 season it makes perfect sense they'd be looking to deal now. One thing I'd consider if I were them is eating half of Lester's salary and putting him on the block now.

Heyward $23.5M (UFA 2024 and has a partial no trade clause that ends after this season. His salary actually goes up to $24.5M in 2022 and 2023)
Darvish $22M (UFA 2024)
Lester $20M (Cubs can buy him out of next year for $10M. UFA 2022)
Bryant $18.5M* (UFA 2022 unless he wins his grievance - which seems unlikely)
Rizzo $16.5M (UFA 2022)
Kimbrel $16M (UFA 2023)
Chatwood $13M (UFA 2021)
Hendricks $12M (Signed through 2024 when he'll make $16M)
Quintana $10.5M (UFA 2021)
Baez $10M* (UFA 2022)
Schwarber $8M* (UFA 2022)
Russell $5M* (UFA 2022)
Contreras $4.5M* (UFA 2023)
Descalso $2.5M (Club option for 2021 that will almost certainly not get exercised barring a big turn around)
Almora $1.75M* (UFA 2022)
Ryan $1M* (UFA 2024)
Bote $960K (UFA 2027 - club options in 2025 and 2026 - he'll make $5.5M in 2024)

Everyone else is on the pay scale and will make $650K or so or less. So Happ, Caratini, Hoerner, Garcia, Maples, Mills, Rea, Wick, Wieck, Alzolay, etc.
 
Using DeacMan's money numbers, the payroll would be $191M for a 26 man roster. That is $185m plus $6m for 9 players at $650+/- each to fill out the roster. Most estimates I have read use $200M. Tax starts at $208M. Using either projected payroll there is room to operate.

Just looking at the numbers, moving Bryant would free up the most payroll. I have no confidence he will be resigned with Boros as his agent.
 
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