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Chicago Cubs Thread - Playoff Push Pending

I just read on the MLB thread that the White Sox canned Renteria and wondered what thoughts you folks had regarding the job done by David Ross this season?

Andrew Chafin, Tyler Chatwood, Billy Hamilton, Jeremy Jeffress, Jayson Kipnis, Cameron Maybin, Josh Phegley and Jose Quintana become free agents. Should the Cubs offer a one year qualifying offer to anyone? Who should they look to sign?

John Lester ($25M/$10M), Anthony Rizzo ($16.5M/$2M) and Daniel Descalso ($3.5M/$1M) have contract options. Who to keep and who should go?

This years arbitration class is Albert Almora, Javier Baez, Rex Brothers, Kris Bryant, Victor Caratini, Wilson Contreras, Ian Happ, Jose Martinez, Colin Rea, Kyle Ryan, Kyle Schwarber, Ryan Tepera and Dan Winkler. Who to non-tender?

Darvish ($22M), Heyward ($21M), Kimbrel ($16M), Hendricks ($14-$17M) and Bote ($1.01M) are locked in contracts. I'll assume Rizzo is added at ($16.5M). That's 90.5 million. Baez, Bryant, Schwarber and Contreras will cost over $50M. The rest of the arbitration players and pre arb players bring the estimated cost to $170 million. A lot of decisions for the front office. What would you like to see the front office do?
 
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Probably make some trades. Core is great, but need some diversity - will be a challenge to move KB after this year for his value. But, need to lock up one more core player and would love to find a way to extend Rizzo for a few more years.

Trade needs to be for a controllable starter. Bring back Darvish/Hendricks as top of the rotation, with new starter, Mills, Alzolay in the mix for the last 3 spots with an FA or 2 (would be onboard with the rumblings of a Lester resigning for some realllly small amount). Pen should be Kimbrel, Adam, Wick, Tepara, Wieck, Marquez - then find 2 more, with at least 1 being a lefty. Not a fan of keeping anyone else form the pen. Maybe Ryan, but he looked so bad this year.

I think the Cubs should take a run at DJ to play around the IF, probably Bauer or Stroman too. They have enough cap space this year to do some things. I think they should go for another OF bat too assuming the DH remains. Brantley might be out of the price range, but would bring the element the Cubs don't have right now - but adding another lefty might be overkill if Schwarbs is still here too next year.
 
LeMahieu ?! Michael Brantley ?! These guys actually know how to hit. Never happen.

Both are worth an offer. The idea makes me giddy.
 
Cubs Arb estimations came out from MLB Trade Rumors today. These aren't the real numbers, but have been pretty close to accurate in recent years. The numbers are much lower than expected, guessing the down year in 2020 impacted players a lot more:

Albert Almora Jr. (Arb 2 of 3, was $1.58 million in 2020) – $1.58M to $1.58M
Javy Báez (Arb 3 of 3, was $10 million in 2020) – $10.0M to $11.9M
Kris Bryant (Arb 4 of 4, was $18.6 million in 2020) – $18.6M to $18.6M
Victor Caratini (Arb 1 of 3, was $592K in 2020) – $1.2M to $1.6M
Willson Contreras (Arb 2 of 3, was $4.5 million in 2020) – $5.0M to $7.4M
Ian Happ (Arb 1 of 3, was $624K in 2020) – $2.5M to $4.6M
Colin Rea (Arb 1 of 3, was $565K in 2020) – $1.0M to $1.6M
Kyle Ryan (Arb 2 of 4, was $975K in 2020) – $1.2M to $1.5M
Kyle Schwarber (Arb 3 of 3, was $7 million in 2020) – $7.9M to $9.3M
Ryan Tepera (Arb 3 of 3, was $900K in 2020) – $1.1M to$1.5M
Dan Winkler (Arb 3 of 3, was $750K in 2020) – $900K to $1.2M
Jose Martinez (Arb 2 of 3, was $2.43 million in 2020) – $2.1M to $2.3M

Baez, Bryant, Happ, Schwarbs, Caratini, Willson are all definitely being picked up. The others I think are all questionable - could easily see Tepera, Ryan, Winkler, Martinez and Rea being tendered at those rates, but not sure you want/need them all.

With only $89 million committed once Rizzo is picked up and Lester and Descalso are dumped - getting Baez, Bryant, Happ, Schwarbs, Caratini and Contreras for a combined $55 million still leaves the Cubs $66 million under the tax threshold. Alzolay, Nico, Mills, Wick, Wieck are all in pre-arb, so combined they will be in the $5 - $7 million range. So looking at 18 MLB players under contract with $60 million left to spend.
 
Just checkin in to see if anybody else misses Cubs baseball or just me.

Dodgers and Rays ain’t doin it for me.
 
I definitely miss watching Cub games, especially day games. I don't miss the offensive futility this past season provided. I got tired of watching the same mistakes repeat game after game. I hope the front office rolls the dice and changes the make up of the team.
 
Cubs Arb estimations came out from MLB Trade Rumors today. These aren't the real numbers, but have been pretty close to accurate in recent years. The numbers are much lower than expected, guessing the down year in 2020 impacted players a lot more:

Albert Almora Jr. (Arb 2 of 3, was $1.58 million in 2020) – $1.58M to $1.58M
Javy Báez (Arb 3 of 3, was $10 million in 2020) – $10.0M to $11.9M
Kris Bryant (Arb 4 of 4, was $18.6 million in 2020) – $18.6M to $18.6M
Victor Caratini (Arb 1 of 3, was $592K in 2020) – $1.2M to $1.6M
Willson Contreras (Arb 2 of 3, was $4.5 million in 2020) – $5.0M to $7.4M
Ian Happ (Arb 1 of 3, was $624K in 2020) – $2.5M to $4.6M
Colin Rea (Arb 1 of 3, was $565K in 2020) – $1.0M to $1.6M
Kyle Ryan (Arb 2 of 4, was $975K in 2020) – $1.2M to $1.5M
Kyle Schwarber (Arb 3 of 3, was $7 million in 2020) – $7.9M to $9.3M
Ryan Tepera (Arb 3 of 3, was $900K in 2020) – $1.1M to$1.5M
Dan Winkler (Arb 3 of 3, was $750K in 2020) – $900K to $1.2M
Jose Martinez (Arb 2 of 3, was $2.43 million in 2020) – $2.1M to $2.3M

Baez, Bryant, Happ, Schwarbs, Caratini, Willson are all definitely being picked up. The others I think are all questionable - could easily see Tepera, Ryan, Winkler, Martinez and Rea being tendered at those rates, but not sure you want/need them all.

With only $89 million committed once Rizzo is picked up and Lester and Descalso are dumped - getting Baez, Bryant, Happ, Schwarbs, Caratini and Contreras for a combined $55 million still leaves the Cubs $66 million under the tax threshold. Alzolay, Nico, Mills, Wick, Wieck are all in pre-arb, so combined they will be in the $5 - $7 million range. So looking at 18 MLB players under contract with $60 million left to spend.

Schwarbs is getting paid a lot of $ for a career .230 hitter who hits a lot of solo home runs. I don't really follow the process. The Cubs are likely to agree to pay him $7.9- $9.3 M because that is an ok deal for a player of his caliber or because they don't want to lose him without getting something in return? What's the analysis there?
 
Taking away the September swoon from all the Cubs batters - Schwartz offense in 2018 and 2019 is worth $9 million. He gets on base almost 35% of the time, slugs somewhere near .500 - and his defense play in LF is rough, but he might have the best arm in the league, which makes up for something. He's not a perfect player, but is an above average hitter that won't kill you in the field. I think his warts are exacerbated in this lineup, because a lot of his small skills get overlooked taking pitches, working counts, getting walks are a skill of most of our team, and the K's and low BABIP that come with it are the same problem as the rest of the team. I think the biggest concern from 2020 is his splits - if he can't hit against lefties as well as he did in 2019, he loses a bunch of value and even more without a DH.
 
Taking away the September swoon from all the Cubs batters - Schwartz offense in 2018 and 2019 is worth $9 million. He gets on base almost 35% of the time, slugs somewhere near .500 - and his defense play in LF is rough, but he might have the best arm in the league, which makes up for something. He's not a perfect player, but is an above average hitter that won't kill you in the field. I think his warts are exacerbated in this lineup, because a lot of his small skills get overlooked taking pitches, working counts, getting walks are a skill of most of our team, and the K's and low BABIP that come with it are the same problem as the rest of the team. I think the biggest concern from 2020 is his splits - if he can't hit against lefties as well as he did in 2019, he loses a bunch of value and even more without a DH.

I knew he had a good arm, but this i didn't know. He seems like a good clubhouse guy/popular teammate too.
 
The Cubs must make long term decisions on four players this winter. Bryant will become a free agent because his agent believes that is the route to a massive contract and his agent delivers those contracts. A trade makes sense. Rizzo and Baez are run producers and gold glove defenders. They need to be retained. Schwarber hits a home run every 17.4 plate appearances. He has walked enough to make his lifetime .230 average seem tolerable. I'd bet there are general managers willing to trade for his power. Theo can't keep the core intact and affordable. Bryant and Schwarber seem most likely to go elsewhere.
 
The Cubs must make long term decisions on four players this winter. Bryant will become a free agent because his agent believes that is the route to a massive contract and his agent delivers those contracts. A trade makes sense. Rizzo and Baez are run producers and gold glove defenders. They need to be retained. Schwarber hits a home run every 17.4 plate appearances. He has walked enough to make his lifetime .230 average seem tolerable. I'd bet there are general managers willing to trade for his power. Theo can't keep the core intact and affordable. Bryant and Schwarber seem most likely to go elsewhere.

Bryant & Schwarber in his last year makes the most sense, but KBs numbers also took a hit in both 2019 and 2020 and you won't get the value for him in the offseason that he is worth. Only real option would be to potentially dump him for less than he is worth just to free up space to sign someone else you like better with that money. Schwarber's massive slump in September should not really kill his value, but that value is also even less than Bryants. At this point, if either are traded, not expecting anything that would contribute this year except maybe a fringe #4/#5 starter as a throw in. One year contracts for these guys are probably the best selling point to a contending team like the Braves, Nats or Dodgers for Bryant or someone like the Twins for Schwarbs. Would assume the Cubs would be asking for young pitching, but need anything really.

The farm isn't pushing the team much, on pitching or hitting. The next real impact bats are Davis, Amaya and Roederer. Amaya could probably make Caratini a target to move and the Cubs will need a stop gap 1 year fill in back up for Willson. Davis and Roederer are both OF bats, and 2022 is the earliest we would see them, so there isn't a real plan of succession going on 1B, SS or 3B - outside of Bote, who should continue to be a super-sub. There are some intriguing guys further down like Howard, Quintero and Made - and the Cubs are the likely landing spot for MIF Christian Hernandez this winter - but these guys are all 4+ years away.
 
The best course of action may be to sign everyone and wait. Start the season and hope that Bryant and Schwarber come out hot and increase their value to other teams. The difficulty with that approach is trading a productive player if the team is playing well. Fans want a championship, keep the core for a final run etc. With Theo in the final year of his contract, he might be willing to make bold, controversial moves.
 
So, all the news coming out from the Cubs is they want to cut salary even more. So, the idea that they could sign any decent free agent is off the table. Only real option is trade now.

So, while they have a ton of money below the luxury threshold, they appear to only be looking for bargain pieces. Again. Great.
 
Most teams lost significant money last year. High payroll teams were hurt the most. Management can't count on the revenue generated by a three million fan paid attendance. Covid 19 has changed everything. It will be a tough free agent market. Real life problems.
 
Yeah future attendance at sporting events is a wild card right now. How many people be willing to sit jammed next to each other even after the covid vaccine comes out?
 
His contract was set to expire in 2021, so the timing makes sense if he was unlikely to return. Hoyer gets to make the key off-season decisions.
 
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