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Chicago Cubs Thread - Playoff Push Pending

The price of a free agent contract will go down as we get closer to the start of the season.

I think the three player platoon at 2nd base takes a long range perspective. Hoerner probably sticks because he has defensive versatility, is the best back up at short and has shown some production at the plate. He might benefit from time in the minors but he serves an important purpose with the Cubs. Vargas hasn't hit below .300 in the minors since 2014. Nothing to prove there. He has shown some ability in the bigs so he may be a player that just needs a chance to prove himself on an everyday basis. Bote has been great off the bench. He has hit in the clutch and has driven in base runners as well as anybody on the team. He hasn't seized his limited opportunities to play everyday, in part because he is too valuable off the bench. Play all three at 2B and as infield depth. They may all be starting in 2021 if Baez, Bryant and Rizzo go elsewhere.
 
BlackjackMc said:
The price of a free agent contract will go down as we get closer to the start of the season.

I think the three player platoon at 2nd base takes a long range perspective. Hoerner probably sticks because he has defensive versatility, is the best back up at short and has shown some production at the plate. He might benefit from time in the minors but he serves an important purpose with the Cubs. Vargas hasn't hit below .300 in the minors since 2014. Nothing to prove there. He has shown some ability in the bigs so he may be a player that just needs a chance to prove himself on an everyday basis. Bote has been great off the bench. He has hit in the clutch and has driven in base runners as well as anybody on the team. He hasn't seized his limited opportunities to play everyday, in part because he is too valuable off the bench. Play all three at 2B and as infield depth. They may all be starting in 2021 if Baez, Bryant and Rizzo go elsewhere.
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Vargas puts the ball in play, he's like a really poor man's Starlin Castro - tough to strikeout but rarely takes a walk. Its a decent bat to have in the lineup against lefties - but he can't hit righties. And Bote can't hit lefties. Sooo, guess that might be the platoon to start the year if Nico is in AAA. An FA like Kip would just be a replacement for Bote in this situation, moving boat back to super-sub.
 
Take a look at the career numbers for Bote. Would that be a good season for a second baseman? He might be a .250 hitter who cranks out 100 RBI every year. He has driven in 21.6% of the men on base when he comes to the plate over his career. Rizzo is at 21.9%. Bryant is at 19.4%. Baez is at 18.4%. Contreras is at 20.3%. Happ is at 19.3%. The Cubs have been notorious for not delivering with runners in scoring position. Bote may be a solution to that problem. The platoon could be as well.
 
Bote strikes out over 30% against lefties. He has been protected a bit with his playing time, but I'm not sure he would ever be much more than a league average bat as a full time starter. It's not the worst thing in the world for 1 year, only problem is this might be the last competitive year for the Cubs for awhile.
 
Tommy LaStella was a nice bat off the bench for the Cubs for four years but never received a full opportunity to earn an everyday job. He went elsewhere, got the opportunity and has shown he belongs in a starting line up. Bote could be cut from the same cloth. Time to find out.
 
BlackjackMc said:
Take a look at the career numbers for Bote. Would that be a good season for a second baseman? He might be a .250 hitter who cranks out 100 RBI every year. He has driven in 21.6% of the men on base when he comes to the plate over his career. Rizzo is at 21.9%. Bryant is at 19.4%. Baez is at 18.4%. Contreras is at 20.3%. Happ is at 19.3%. The Cubs have been notorious for not delivering with runners in scoring position. Bote may be a solution to that problem. The platoon could be as well.
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Wow good info.
 
DaDeacs said:
Church of effing Jake.

Also, I like Bote - but he's not 3 AM.
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Having said this, in fairness, the Cubs chose Bote over TLS for his positional flexibility, better defense and power potential off the bench. TLS was consistently better at putting the ball in play and getting on base.

Either way, Boats gonna have his chance it appears, can't see much chance the Cubs add anything significant at 2nd unless they have a surprise KB trade coming or something, which feels like we have crossed that bridge and KB is staying. At least until the deadline if the Cubs are sucking wind.
 
Ideally, Hoerner hits well enough to be the everyday 2B because he is the best defender at that position. He has shown the ability to get the timely hit, driving in 24.9% of runners on base but in much fewer plate appearances.

The idea of signing Arrieta is baffling. Trevor Williams is a head scratcher as well. The need for a LH starter isn't solved with either of those two. If either bumps Alzolay from his opportunity the Cubs are making a mistake. The kid is ready and the guys in the farm system need to see that if they pitch well they will get their opportunity. It's impossible to develop starters if they never believe they will get the chance in the bigs. Same for Marquez. If he has two secondary pitches to go with a high 90's fastball give him a shot.
 
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They asked Jed, he said they feel comfortable with a right staff against the NL Central. Williams is a good price to see if pitch lab can recapture his form from a couple years ago. Jake is great, even in 2019, he can pitch 150+ innings at least above league average. Cubs lost a ton of innings, zero chance they all stay healthy for the year and will need 1000ish innings out of the starters and not sure Cubs can count on anyone outside of Hendo to put up 180+
 
WakeForest22890, how about an update to 2021 on the thread title?

Cubs sign Jake Marisnick to a MLB contract. He will provide legit CF depth. Cameron Maybin has reportedly signed a minor league contract and will report to spring training. They will probably be the outfield depth to start the season. Phillip Ervin has been DFA.

Hoyer talk suggest the current roster will start the season. No deals cooking, but he will listen to offers. Nobody calling.

Outfield defense has improved. Infield defense is improved if Hoerner starts.

If the season is close to normal the offense should improve a great deal. Bryant, Baez and Rizzo are playing for their big contracts and will return to form. If Happ maintains his numbers from last year leading off, a big problem is resolved. Contreras and Heyward should at least match last year. At worst Pederson brings what Schwarber did. Second base is the question. Cubs should score runs.

Like always, if the Cubs get decent pitching they should contend. I've said that preseason since 1958 and it's as true today as it has been for the past 63 years. Just a bigger question mark this year than the past few years.
 
If there was an elevator summary for Jed's approach, how would you all who follow this closely summarize it?

Dumping Yu, Schwarbs, & co. and shopping KB seems to portend an indecisive step towards rebuilding (or rebuilding without admitting it). Is that what's happening? If so, what say you guys on the wisdom of that approach? If not, what am I missing?
 
BlackjackMc said:
Remaining competitive in the present while preparing for the future.
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So what do you guys think? Is that a better approach than nuking-from-orbit? To my untrained eye, this team was afraid of the moment at the plate (Bote excepted) and didn't have a bullpen worth paying. The starting pitching was perfectly acceptable for a contender. It didn't matter who they cycled through: Castellanos, Murphy, Whomever. They put on blue pinstripes and they seized up when it mattered. So much so that I don't think the core guys have any value on the trade market, so the old guard is getting a victory lap.
 
WokeandBroke said:
So what do you guys think? Is that a better approach than nuking-from-orbit? To my untrained eye, this team was afraid of the moment at the plate (Bote excepted) and didn't have a bullpen worth paying. The starting pitching was perfectly acceptable for a contender. It didn't matter who they cycled through: Castellanos, Murphy, Whomever. They put on blue pinstripes and they seized up when it mattered. So much so that I don't think the core guys have any value on the trade market, so the old guard is getting a victory lap.
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I don't know. But I do know your username cracks me up.
 
The only two hitters I trust to hit in the clutch are Rizzo and Bote. They modify their approach. Baez and Contreras are decent if they are using the whole field but but rarely do that. Hoerner has shown some ability to deliver with men on base.

I'm OK with a victory lap, it might work if the core hits in their walk season. Their trade value might improve as well.
 
WokeandBroke said:
So what do you guys think? Is that a better approach than nuking-from-orbit? To my untrained eye, this team was afraid of the moment at the plate (Bote excepted) and didn't have a bullpen worth paying. The starting pitching was perfectly acceptable for a contender. It didn't matter who they cycled through: Castellanos, Murphy, Whomever. They put on blue pinstripes and they seized up when it mattered. So much so that I don't think the core guys have any value on the trade market, so the old guard is getting a victory lap.
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Meh, there is still value. The Cubs put value on guys and the only one that met was Yu - and, while it did seem like it was a salary dump, one of the guys they got back is already a fringe top 100 guy, so maybe there was a bit more valuation than expected. I really expected KB to be moved, but there have been rumblings about talks starting back up, but there is 0% chance he takes a team friendly deal with Boras negotiating (and Boras has been saying for months KB wasn't getting traded). Baez and Rizzo I would expect to sign a deal and be the bridge between now and 2-3 years when the next wave of whatever shows up. Guessing Willy gets dumped after this year with Amaya likely hitting the majors in 2022.

Also, it hasn't always been the same thing ailing the Cubs since the world series - their offense has been fine in the clutch a times, it wasn't last year. 2017 KB and Riz were MVP candidates, in 2018 Baez was, 2019 Nick, Schwarber and Happ were having monster Septembers and Octobers. 2020 was dominated by good pitching and no hitting at all. It's tough to completely fault a team that made the playoffs 5 of the last 6 years - losing the play-in games to the Brewers and Rocks in 2018 sucked, scoring 0 runs against the Marlins sucked, but with the shitty JHey contract and the Lester and Yu contracts, it put the Cubs in a bad situation with the salary threshold. I would love for them to act like the Dodgers and push through the cap, but most of the Cubs owners do suck as people, so wouldn't expect them to risk losing money to win another WS. Also, Theo's drafting outside of the top 2-3 rounds has sucked pretty hard.
 
Fun fact, the Dodgers were under the luxury tax in both 2019 and 2020 while the Cubs were above it. Even the Yankees have dipped back under the threshold for 2021 due to the higher repeater rate for going over the threshold three years in a row (no luxury tax was collected last year due to COVID, but the penalties for going over the threshold going forward still apply). We can talk all we want about the Cubs needing to flex their financial muscles and to act like a big market team, but even the big market teams are shedding payroll to avoid the repeater rate.
 
Couple of reports coming out that likely there will be fans in Wrigley at some point this year which has means the Cubs should, technically, have some extra money to spend during the season if things get interesting. If not, we might see a full blown sell off - considering like half the team is in their walk year.

Cubs are making some moves, the DFA Duane Underwood and pick up their 2020 leading MVP vote getter, Ryan Tepera, on an MLB contract. That likely has the staff as:

Starters - Hendricks, Davies, Arrieta, Williams, Alzolay
Relievers - Mills, Winkler, Tepera, Kimbrel, Chafin, Workman, Adam, Ryan (with Rowan Wick taking someones place when he is healthy)

Would love to see Maples make the roster, and changing his throwing motion may have helped, we'll see - he has some of, if not, the nastiest stuff in the Cubs whole org. Alzolay is interesting, they are monitoring his innings, so there is a chance he starts in AAA to help control that and Mills is the 5th starter until they are ready to give Adbert a full run. Cubs also kicking the tires on Eric Sogard - its a minor league deal, so assuming its just to see if he has anything left. He is a lefty swinger, but hits both lefties and righties, when he does hit. Thinking he is an insurance policy in case Nico needs AAA time. Leaving the likely team as:

C - Contreras
1B - Riz
2B - Nico
SS - Baez
3B - KB
LF - Joc
CF - Happ
RF - JHey
Subs - Bote, Vargas, Marisnick, Maybin, Romine

Guessing Maybin sticks over Duffy if they keep Vargas and Bote as the IF options. If Nico does go to AAA, Duffy or Sogard would likely fill in the last spot with Bote/Vargas platooning at 2B.

Dunno, its not great, its not terrible - need the offense to play at their potential and the pitching staff to hold it together behind Hendricks. If you can get Trevor Williams and Arrieta to turn back the clock to 2018 form, the staff would be pretty legit. The bigger issue is can they actually compete in the NL even if they win the Central - the Dodgers, Pads, Mets, Braves all have better on paper teams. Cubs really need their core, who has been so good at times, to hit - if Kris Bryant is Kris Bryant and Baez is even 80% of himself, they should have one of the better offenses, but haven't seen them put it all together in a couple of years.
 
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