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2020 Senate Races

It looks like WI, IL and IN are lock net wins for the Dems. If Reid loses, they need two more to be in a tie in the Senate. If Reid holds on, wins in PA and NH would give Dems the Senate.
 
Reid is not running but rather retiring. Catherine Cortez-Masto is the Dem nominee.
 
my bad. If Hillary wins big in NV, Cortez should win.

Pence just refused to endorse either McCain or Ayotte. What a wuss!
 
RJKarl said:
Pence just refused to endorse either McCain or Ayotte.
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Get that Trump has GOP voodoo dolls, but WTF is Pence thinking? Knew he had to gtfo of IN to avoid a potential embarrassing career ending loss, but he has has to know they have minimal cash and no GOTV machines anywhere so they desperately need to piggyback off local candidates, especially in swing states. Pence's loopy 2020 dream goes through NH. Has to win IA, avoid getting beaten by a relative centrist in NH, and try and right the ship in SC, NV, and FL. Has to go rogue at some point. Trump's not booting him off the ticket for Newt or Christie.
 
Ayotte is one of the few promising Pubs who did run this cycle or embarrass themselves out of contention.

Pence must be trying to take out the 2020 competition.
 
PhDeac said:
Ayotte is one of the few promising Pubs who did run this cycle or embarrass themselves out of contention.

Pence must be trying to take out the 2020 competition.
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I don't get Pence not endorsing Ayotte. I fail to see how that helps him in 2020, her now or the party. I think she still has a tea bagging challenger, but it's not someone who is going to take much of the vote.
 
Maggie Hassan the NH Governor and opposition for Ayotte is quite popular. This is probably the last person she wanted to run against.
 
The Democrats need a +4 margin in the Senate (or +5 if Trump wins). Their best chances in relative order are: IL, WI, IN, NH, PA. A rising tide landslide for HRC would give them a shot at FL, AZ, and OH.
 
NC isn't out of the question either. Ross is out-fund raising Burr at the moment.
 
If the poll is correct, you can put NH in the lock to flip column. That gives the Dems four - WI, IL, IN, NH - If they hold the rest the base it a tie in the Senate.
 
CantStandYa said:
The Democrats need a +4 margin in the Senate (or +5 if Trump wins). Their best chances in relative order are: IL, WI, IN, NH, PA. A rising tide landslide for HRC would give them a shot at FL, AZ, and OH.
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As of now, I think the Dems keep NV (due to demographics and expecting Clinton to win there) and pick up IL, WI, IN and NH. After that, Clinton's margin of victory in states will make a big difference in the other races. There is not quite as much ballot splitting as there was 20-30 years ago. Senators like Rubio, Toomey and McCain will outperform Trump by some. So a 2-4% margin for Clinton in 1 of those states might be survivable. But if her margin is more like 6-9%, that's going to be awfully difficult to survive. In addition to the other states on your list, I'd add MO. Blunt isn't tremendously popular there and could well get outperformed by Trump.
 
cville deac said:
As of now, I think the Dems keep NV (due to demographics and expecting Clinton to win there) and pick up IL, WI, IN and NH. After that, Clinton's margin of victory in states will make a big difference in the other races. There is not quite as much ballot splitting as there was 20-30 years ago. Senators like Rubio, Toomey and McCain will outperform Trump by some. So a 2-4% margin for Clinton in 1 of those states might be survivable. But if her margin is more like 6-9%, that's going to be awfully difficult to survive. In addition to the other states on your list, I'd add MO. Blunt isn't tremendously popular there and could well get outperformed by Trump.
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Good point. If the current polling trends continue - which is unlikely, but hey, nothing wrong with speculating wildly - you could see a large portion of the GOP base sit this one out. If that's the case, we could see a repeat of 2006/08.
 
Im often wrong but I just don't see conservative NC dems voting for Ross. And Burr has appeared to be above the mess that is the NC Republican party.

Id be disappointed to see Ayotte lose. I think she's an incredibly competent Senator...
 
It'll be a miracle if Ayotte survives this Trump mess, but she probably won't.

If Blunt and the Louisiana open seat were to fall to Dems, you could be getting close to the super majority numbers.

HRC may get her SCOTUS of choice.
 
Pence endorsed McCain and Ayotte on the 4th.

Pence met privately with McCain on Tuesday while campaigning in Phoenix and heaped praise on the Arizona senator.

“Sen. McCain has provided the kind of leadership throughout his career that has stood up for our military stood up for a strong America and we talked about that and the need to have the kind of leadership in the White House that will rebuild the military,” he told ABC affiliate KNXV.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/mike...se-john-mccain-kelly-ayotte/story?id=41127389

http://www.yourcentralvalley.com/news/pence-endorses-mccain-ayotte

This was known almost 36 hours ago. Get out of your self-inflicted media bubbles.

Ayotte is down 1 point in the RealClearPolitics average of polls. And this is mostly on the strength of a single poll finding her 10 points down by a new polling group.

McCain up. Rubio up. Even Heck is up in Nevada. PPP, which does polling for Democrats, has Toomey even (up 1) and Portman up 5 in the last week. In early July, Kirk is actually ahead in Illinois. It will be close.

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/arti...mp-in?X-IgnoreUserAgent=1&X-IgnoreUserAgent=1
 
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DeacWatcher, you are predicting nearly 14 R Senate seats will fall. Please name them.
 
I think the Dems have four locks (WI, IL,IN, NH). I think they also pick-up PA, OH. If it's a landslide, they could win AZ and MO as well.

I would not put it past Schumer to change the rules of the Senate to get rid of the 60 vote rule for judges and the Supreme Court. This is a direct result of the GOP's historic level of obstruction. Plus, the 60 rule is kind of new anyway.
 
I think the Dems have four locks (WI, IL,IN, NH). I think they also pick-up PA, OH. If it's a landslide, they could win AZ and MO as well.

I would not put it past Schumer to change the rules of the Senate to get rid of the 60 vote rule for judges and the Supreme Court. This is a direct result of the GOP's historic level of obstruction. Plus, the 60 rule is kind of new anyway.
 
NH isn't a lock. Both Ayotte and Hassan are reasonably popular there. But it's increasingly looking like Clinton will win there fairly easily. If Clinton takes NH by 5-8%, that's going to make it hard for Ayotte. I'd say it's more like Hassan is a mild favorite at the moment.

RoMf, yeah, 14 is ridiculous. Worst case scenario for the Dems with Clinton winning a tight race is probably 49. Best case scenario for the Dems with Clinton winning easily is probably 55. If Clinton takes FL, PA and OH by 5-7%, that'll greatly increase the likelihood of senate victories there. And if she's fairly competitive in MO and wins AZ, those could be senate winners as well.
 
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