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2020 Senate Races

Dealing with the crisis isn't the same as that.
 
Little Marco says no abortions, even for women affected by Zika. Solid start for locking down the moderate female vote.
 
CantStandYa said:
Little Marco says no abortions, even for women affected by Zika. Solid start for locking down the moderate female vote.
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Rubio appears to be ahead in the polls for now, and I'd expect him to run stronger than Trump be a few points. And it's not like Murphy doesn't have any baggage. I just see few folks changing their votes this year from Rubio to Murphy due to the Zika/abortion issue because it's still so theoretical. If Zika in fact really starts becoming a significant problem in this country, and once folks start having babies with tiny brains, then that's when a bunch of folks are really going to take a much harder look at abortions in the US. Zika could end up being a game changer.
 
The Pub thinking is that by limiting the Trump damage in a Pub state by 5% or less, they can hold that senate seat but if it get above 5% the seat is in real danger of falling. HRC is up on Trump in the following states by these margins according to 538: NH-7%, WI-11.4%, FL-6%, PA-8%, OH-5.4%, & AZ- 0.2%. NV-6.3% (Dem held now, but tight state), IN is Trump up 5%, but since Bayh is running for his old seat, this will probably flip.
 
I don't get that logic at all. Pubs who line up behind this McMillian fellow risk losing support from the much larger group of Trump voters or risk that the Trump voters just don't show up to the polls at all.
 
Pat Toomey is now running an ad that says he crossed the aisle to support legislation that would prevent those on the terrorist watch list from buying guns. (He voted for the NRA-backed bill that all Republicans voted for, and against the one introduced by Democrats.) Feeling some pressure, Pat?
 
I think McGinty will beat him due to Clinton 8-12% win in PA.
 
avalon said:
Pat Toomey is now running an ad that says he crossed the aisle to support legislation that would prevent those on the terrorist watch list from buying guns. (He voted for the NRA-backed bill that all Republicans voted for, and against the one introduced by Democrats.) Feeling some pressure, Pat?
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Probably better suited for the gun thread, but I am a staunch opponent of guns and I don't really understand how this would work. If you are a citizen then you still have 2nd Amendment rights, and it is my understanding that somebody can be placed on a Terrorist Watch List with minimal suspicion. That would be a pretty big infringement on their 2nd Amendment rights wouldn't it?
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Probably better suited for the gun thread, but I am a staunch opponent of guns and I don't really understand how this would work. If you are a citizen then you still have 2nd Amendment rights, and it is my understanding that somebody can be placed on a Terrorist Watch List with minimal suspicion. That would be a pretty big infringement on their 2nd Amendment rights wouldn't it?
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It's political game-playing that makes for good sound bites.
 
Yes that's why the ACLU is against that legislation. They think the terror watch list, with little to no oversight or way to get off it, is an unconstitutional "proxy" (for lack of a better word) for danger.
 
DeacWatcher said:
Yeah if PA really gets out of hand like +10%, Toomey is doomed.
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Again, let's not start sucking each others' dicks quite yet. The last 2 PA polls had McGinty up by 1-2%, whereas the presidential polls by the same polling firms on the same day had Clinton up by 9-12%. I had figured Toomey would run a few points stronger than Trump, but based on those last 2 groups of polls, he's running about 10% ahead of Trump. I would be surprised if the final tally in PA were to have Clinton winning by double digits, so McGinty is still in for a tough race.
 
Not cocks sucking, just calling it the way the race looks at this moment. If Trump closes things, obviously Toomey becomes safer. But if like I said it gets out of hand, Toomey is in a lot of trouble. What'll be interesting will be how many folks in PA split their votes by not voting straight party.
 
DeacWatcher said:
What'll be interesting will be how many folks in PA split their votes by not voting straight party.
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That's kinda what I was saying - a 10% difference is unusually high in today's political environment, especially considering neither Toomey or McGinty are beloved sons/daughters of the state on the 1 hand, nor do either have any real baggage. They appear to be rather generic Rs and Ds. In IN, you'd expect that kind of double digit difference because of the Bayh family. The Dem party can't like those numbers, despite the small lead, and I'm sure is hoping the numbers aren't similar in FL, OH and AZ.
 
Some better news for McGinty in a PA poll today. She's up by 4%, and Clinton is up 9%. If she can stay within 5% of Clinton in PA, she has a great chance.

Not so good news today for Strickland in OH, however. Clinton was up 4% there, but he was trailing by 5%. Again, such a margin is surprising there because both he and Portman are reasonably popular. Just as surprising to see Clinton up by 4% - I've thought the demographics are bad for her in OH and that that would be a loser even if she takes states like VA, FL and IA.
 
I'd put the PA seat at 50/50 even with an HRC blowout in the state - McGinty's best shot is GOP voters throwing up their hands and staying home on election day.

McGinty's not a particularly strong candidate and Toomey hasn't done much to alienate moderate PA voters (who tend to lean right in state elections and left in POTUS elections). McGinty isn't Martha Coakley-level bad by any means, but Toomey's efforts to paint her as a callous Washington insider will play well with the base. In any other Presidential election year, with a candidate at the head of the GOP ticket that wasn't an orange-tinted racist neanderthal, Toomey would probably be a lock.
 
cville deac said:
Some better news for McGinty in a PA poll today. She's up by 4%, and Clinton is up 9%. If she can stay within 5% of Clinton in PA, she has a great chance.

Not so good news today for Strickland in OH, however. Clinton was up 4% there, but he was trailing by 5%. Again, such a margin is surprising there because both he and Portman are reasonably popular. Just as surprising to see Clinton up by 4% - I've thought the demographics are bad for her in OH and that that would be a loser even if she takes states like VA, FL and IA.
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Portman's in pretty good shape. He's moved left a little bit to get away from Trump and anything he skins off from independents and moderate Dems is gravy. Bad news is that OH hasn't split parties on POTUS/Senate since 1988.

PA (McGinty up 4) and FL (Little Marco up 3) are tight. Ayotte (down 10) is in deep shit.
 
If Marco is only up 3 before anybody knows Murphy, Marco is in trouble.
 
Toomey was up about 10 six weeks ago.

I think some of the Republicans in close races could be worried about turnout. If moderate Republicans stay home, they could have problems.
 
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