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2020 Senate Races

Toomey was up about 10 six weeks ago.

I think some of the Republicans in close races could be worried about turnout. If moderate Republicans stay home, they could have problems.

Spotted the Toomey/gun control ad last night - best case scenario, it's misleading. Worst case scenario - it's lying. Regardless, it'll get some traction with Lexus SUV-driving, bleached-blond, Philly suburb moms.
 
These guys are going to need to start abandoning Trump yesterday if the new polls are to be believed.


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Which new polls?
 
I found both those NC polls surprising given the prior polling in NC. I'm believing they're outliers for both Clinton and Ross unless we start seeing more similar ones to back those up. That said, maybe more pro business Pubs who don't like the black eye the state has gotten are throwing their support to Clinton, Ross and Cooper.
 
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Yeah, I think those polls inflate Dems' chances until more confirm it but you know some turtle heads popped out in Burr and McCrory's campaign offices. If Burr loses McCrory is going to get crushed.


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I found both those NC polls surprising given the prior polling in NC. I'm believing they're outliers for both Clinton and Ross unless we start seeing more similar ones to back those up. That said, maybe more pro business Pubs who don't like the black eye the state has gotten are throwing their support to Clinton, Ross and Cooper.

Everyone across the political spectrum had to be surprised at the speed and intensity of the nationwide response to HB2. Same thing for Pence getting clowned over his religious freedom law. Personally believe America needs and deserves a rational/reasonable center right party. GOP wipeouts in NC (Trump, McCrory, Burr), Florida (Trump, Little Marco), AZ (Trump, McCain), Georgia (Trump), Indiana (Pence), and Utah (Trump) would quicken the pace, but a clean sweep won't happen. As usual, social conservatives will read a mixed result as a false positive and screw themselves again in 2020.
 
You all are aware that when Reagan won 49 states in 1984, R's lost two Senate seats? LBJ, winning 61 percent of the vote, picked up 2 Senate seats.

Most conservative donors have kept their powder dry for the Congressional races. Clinton has outspent Trump 93 million to zero on TV so far.

Don't be surprised to see less coattails for a candidate who is winning largely because she is "not Trump," than you expect.
 
I haven't seen anybody claim Hillary has coattails.
 
"Trump damage" is the same as claiming "Hillary's coattails." It seems rampant in this thread. Reagan by 18. LBJ by 20. Weren't these Mondale and Goldwater damage?

If you don't know anything about the subject, better to stay quiet and possibly be thought the fool, rather than confirm it.

Again how many stats classes were required for your PhD at Duke?
 
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Everyone across the political spectrum had to be surprised at the speed and intensity of the nationwide response to HB2. Same thing for Pence getting clowned over his religious freedom law. Personally believe America needs and deserves a rational/reasonable center right party. GOP wipeouts in NC (Trump, McCrory, Burr), Florida (Trump, Little Marco), AZ (Trump, McCain), Georgia (Trump), Indiana (Pence), and Utah (Trump) would quicken the pace, but a clean sweep won't happen. As usual, social conservatives will read a mixed result as a false positive and screw themselves again in 2020.

Marco is up in the last three polls. McCain is still up on average. Pence was a governor. This makes no sense. Especially since R's are working for Congress and have a deep bench in 2020, and 2024.
 
Portman's in pretty good shape. He's moved left a little bit to get away from Trump and anything he skins off from independents and moderate Dems is gravy. Bad news is that OH hasn't split parties on POTUS/Senate since 1988.

PA (McGinty up 4) and FL (Little Marco up 3) are tight. Ayotte (down 10) is in deep shit.

And how many races has the POTUS/Senate in Indiana been a non-incumbent since 1988? And I can't tell you how impressed I am to here a liberal call Marco Rubio by a Trump nickname. Either Trump is not a dick, or you are. I[m going with the second.
 
Dems should be playing up the Zika problem as a GOP problem. Months ago Obama sent a request for funds to fight Zika, the GOP didn't pass it.

Stop reading huffpost as gospel. Rubio has been out in front on getting the 1.9 billion of funding for the issue. Dems blocked it, and Rubio eaisly can put up ads with his sponsorship of the bill. Planned Parenthood again, people who don't live in Florida weighing in. I'm guessing you've never driven down abortion alley from Gainesville to Orlando. I've never seen so many anti-abortion signs in my life. Also, the majority of babies born to mothers do not suffer from birth defects. The rate, even from left groups id 1 to 13 percent. Aborting 7/8 of healthy babies, worst case, sure seems like a winner to me.
 
Seriously, do any of you really follow or read on this? It seems like naked my team vs. them, my group vs. them.

Johnson/Weld, 2016. Stop being stupid.
 
"Trump damage" is the same as claiming "Hillary's coattails." It seems rampant in this thread. Reagan by 18. LBJ by 20. Weren't these Mondale and Goldwater damage?

If you don't know anything about the subject, better to stay quiet and possibly be thought the fool, rather than confirm it.

Again how many stats classes were required for your PhD at Duke?

With Johnson and Reagan, they were a little bit of both, especially with Reagan. This year, it's more Trump damage. As I've opined here, I think there is a bit of a coattail/Trump damage effect when it comes to the senate races, mainly because there is less crossover down ballot than there used to be. It was more common when I started voting in the 80s. That said, most of the Pub senatorial candidates seem to be running a few to several points ahead of Trump. McCain and Blunt less so, but Portman and Rubio more so. Trump appears to be hurting Ayotte the most. But that's why it's important to keep the margins in states like PA, OH, FL, NV and maybe even AZ under 5%. The closer that margin gets to double digits, the less likely the Pub senate nominee is going to be able to overcome such a difference.

The other issue to look for this year is depressed voting, and that swings both ways. Unless Johnson becomes more viable, disaffected Pubs might not all show up in November. Similarly, millennials aren't thrilled with their choices this year. Neither are the rest of us, but we're more used to holding our noses and choosing between the lesser of 2 evils. Millennials less so. And a depressed millennial turnout in these close senate races will cut the other way. This is why I'm a bit mystified why more establishment Pubs have been so reticent to back Johnson and instead are getting some no name ex-CIA dude to run. They're better off backing the 1 fiscal conservative already in the race who has some name recognition and getting some $$ from the Kochs. That way more disaffected establishment types are going to have more reason to show up and vote for Pub senators down ticket.
 
McMullin still remains a mystery. All about saving the Senate, but at the cost of screwing Trump big time. Dems shouldn't be competitive in UT, but splitting votes between Trump, Johnson, and McMullin would hand an unlikely state to HRC. Same in AZ and just pads the margins in CO and NV. Isn't remotely helpful in GA & MO.

Gives disgruntled social conservatives wary of both Trump and libertarian social policies a reason to go to the polls and keeps normally very safe Senate seats in AZ, MO, and IA plus picks up NV. Screws Trump and splinters the GOP even more, but that's why McMullin's donors are so secretive. They've already written off Trump completely and are looking toward the Senate, 2018, and 2020. Doesn't mean they want to face the wrath of 14M Trump primary voters now.

Romney, Ryan, and even Bachmann held regular fund raisers in the Bay Area during the last cycle. Trump is so toxic to major donors that he's become a complete pariah. Tech business interests don't want revolts from boards, shareholders, employees, and customers.
 
2016 Senate Races

Equating Trump damage to Hillary coattails ignores the fact people need to be motivated to vote. Not voting for Trump is distinct from voting for Hillary. Only the latter is possibly linked to voting for down ballot Dems.
 
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