• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

2020 Senate Races

Barring things going to shit, Hillary will win in 2020.First of all, the country will be less white. Next, other than Daddy Bush and Carter, every POTUS who ran for a second term since 1932 won.

The counter-argument to that is no party has had 16 straight years of the White House since FDR/Truman. If the Republicans can get their shit together and offer a viable candidate who appeals to people that aren't straight/white/Christian/male, it's certainly possible that Hillary is a one-term President. Of course, there's also no guarantee that the Republicans can get their shit together. See also: post-2012 referendum.
 
It's also about demographics. Hispanics are not going to forget Trump and the GOP being so much against comprehensive immigration reform. The GOP has become much more hardcore since W's logical bill.

It will take a major fuck up on Hillary's part not to win in 2020.

RE: Senate - McGinty is now up 4% on Toomey. It's the first time that she has lead in a long time. The next poll will show if this is a trend or an outlier.
 
For the life of me I cannot understand Little Marco's reasoning as to why he should be President but doesn't want to do the work necessary to get the job. It's like me deciding I want to quit my sales job and be President of my company because I think I deserve it and can do a better job than the current one.

This guy is a total clown and one good thing Trump/Christie did was to expose him for what he is.
 
He'll run again in 2020. Then he'll become a marginally effective lobbyist.

All of this is assuming he wins in November. If he loses, he's done and he could lose.

What about a ad campaign of his own words saying he doesn't like being a Senator? Why vote for someone who doesn't want the job? In a close election, this could work.
 
I get the demographics, but y'all are forgetting how much Hillary is personally detested by at least half the country. I really think she's done in 2020 IF the Pubs nominate a viable candidate. I'm just not sure of their ability to nominate a viable candidate. The Pubs are going to be at least as obstructionist for her as they have been for the African, and let's face it - the ME will be as big a mess in 4 years as it is now. Trump is running now as much to bloody her up as he is to win - probably more so. The only thing she'll have going for her is the Christian Right and Trump supporting crowd probably won't permit someone like Huntsman to get the nomination.
 
If Hillary gets in, nominates Supreme Court justices within her 4 years she can get the fuck out after that for all I care.
 
Would you like to make a bet?

No. Does somebody that disagrees with you all of a sudden have to "bet on it"? Are we a bunch of 13 yr olds that can't discuss our views and the merits thereof without trying to big dick each other and slam our wallets on the table? I think she'll win. Just pointing out the absurdity of claiming she's a 2020 lock when:

1) you acknowledge she's a shitty candidate
2) the next GOP candidate wouldn't be Trump
3) you acknowledge the unknown of what could occur during her 4 years as president
4) she hasn't put Trump, one of the worst candidates in US History, away

As to point #4, there are a lot of reasons for it that don't have to do with Clinton - the media likes its horse race, a certain portion of the population will vote GOP no matter what, etc. - but it's also because a certain portion of the population hates her, period. So if the political environment surrounding Clinton is such that she can't blow open the race with Trump - what exactly makes her this "2020 lock"? Fewer OWGs and more blacks + latinos in the electorate? I'd be happy to be wrong. I'm liberal. I just find it ridiculous to coronate her for 8 years when she's still fighting to claim her first 4. Good state polling and electoral college mapping aside, she's got work left to do in 2016.
 
I thought you were talking about 16 race.

I also gave logical reasons that make it very, very difficult for any GOP candidate to win in 2020. But you ignore them.
 
For the life of me I cannot understand Little Marco's reasoning as to why he should be President but doesn't want to do the work necessary to get the job. It's like me deciding I want to quit my sales job and be President of my company because I think I deserve it and can do a better job than the current one.

This guy is a total clown and one good thing Trump/Christie did was to expose him for what he is.

No, I think you understand his reasoning perfectly. He's been told by enough FL and national people that he's the Great Latino Hope and he believes it. Plus, I'm not sure he has any other skills besides being an empty suit.

No. Does somebody that disagrees with you all of a sudden have to "bet on it"? Are we a bunch of 13 yr olds that can't discuss our views and the merits thereof without trying to big dick each other and slam our wallets on the table? I think she'll win. Just pointing out the absurdity of claiming she's a 2020 lock when:

1) you acknowledge she's a shitty candidate
2) the next GOP candidate wouldn't be Trump
3) you acknowledge the unknown of what could occur during her 4 years as president
4) she hasn't put Trump, one of the worst candidates in US History, away

As to point #4, there are a lot of reasons for it that don't have to do with Clinton - the media likes its horse race, a certain portion of the population will vote GOP no matter what, etc. - but it's also because a certain portion of the population hates her, period. So if the political environment surrounding Clinton is such that she can't blow open the race with Trump - what exactly makes her this "2020 lock"? Fewer OWGs and more blacks + latinos in the electorate? I'd be happy to be wrong. I'm liberal. I just find it ridiculous to coronate her for 8 years when she's still fighting to claim her first 4. Good state polling and electoral college mapping aside, she's got work left to do in 2016.

I wish all UNC posters were this reasonable.
 
I thought you were talking about 16 race.

I also gave logical reasons that make it very, very difficult for any GOP candidate to win in 2020. But you ignore them.

It's entirely fair to say the GOP has a steep hill to climb with shifting demographics and the default setting of the electoral college. That's not the same as saying she's a near lock irrespective of what happens during her presidency.
 
Last edited:
It's entirely fair to say the GOP has a steep hill to climb with shifting demographics and the default setting of the electorate college. That's not the same as saying she's a near lock irrespective of what happens during her presidency.

Those are the reasons why she's a lock. You can't have one without the other.

Trump's speech tonight is not helping the GOP in 2020.
 
I get the demographics, but y'all are forgetting how much Hillary is personally detested by at least half the country. I really think she's done in 2020 IF the Pubs nominate a viable candidate. I'm just not sure of their ability to nominate a viable candidate. The Pubs are going to be at least as obstructionist for her as they have been for the African, and let's face it - the ME will be as big a mess in 4 years as it is now. Trump is running now as much to bloody her up as he is to win - probably more so. The only thing she'll have going for her is the Christian Right and Trump supporting crowd probably won't permit someone like Huntsman to get the nomination.

This is a really good post. Hillary would lose to many "normal" republicans IMHO. The Rs just didn't chose one. But, there is clearly a growing "populist" wave in this country as evidenced by both Trump and Sanders. And as you see social issues moderate, and all data suggests they are, it leaves a pretty big opening for a "normal" populist candidate that could have a lot of broad appeal.

The demographics, while certainly an important , are just one slice of the data. There's been a lot written on how both Gen X and millennials will evolve in their political leanings. Looking at demographics is a really just one angle of a very complicated electorate.
 
By 2020, white voter participation will be about 60%. If either party loses the non-white demographic by an 80/20 margin, it's virtually impossible to win enough votes to win a national election. This time that number looks low. But let's look at it.

80% of 40% is 32%. This means either party that loses the non-white demographic like this would need 70% of the white vote to win. This isn't possible as younger voters and women don't split like that.
 
This is a really good post. Hillary would lose to many "normal" republicans IMHO. The Rs just didn't chose one. But, there is clearly a growing "populist" wave in this country as evidenced by both Trump and Sanders. And as you see social issues moderate, and all data suggests they are, it leaves a pretty big opening for a "normal" populist candidate that could have a lot of broad appeal.

The demographics, while certainly an important , are just one slice of the data. There's been a lot written on how both Gen X and millennials will evolve in their political leanings. Looking at demographics is a really just one angle of a very complicated electorate.

Was in DC last week. The National Archives and the Smithsonian both have multiple exhibitions on slavery, women's suffrage, internment of the Japanese, and the Civil Rights Era. There aren't going to be exhibitions on Trump's Wall or Pence/Cruz gay conversions in coming decades. GOP either becomes much more socially libertarian or ceases to exist. Sadly for America, 'Pubs won't get their shit together before 2020.
 
Was in DC last week. The National Archives and the Smithsonian both have multiple exhibitions on slavery, women's suffrage, internment of the Japanese, and the Civil Rights Era. There aren't going to be exhibitions on Trump's Wall or Pence/Cruz gay conversions in coming decades. GOP either becomes much more socially libertarian or ceases to exist. Sadly for America, 'Pubs won't get their shit together before 2020.

Yeah, I think we've entered an era where social acceptance can turn very quick. Gay marriage is one example. Heck, Obama was at least publicly anti gay marriage until recently. I don't think thats unique to the left. Many conservatives are becoming more tolerant though by all means they remain less tolerant of many social things than dems.

RJ, I've seen slightly different stats. White turnout is 60% (ie 60% of whits vote) which is the highest among groups (until the last 2 elections where it was a tie with AAs). Hispanics are well below 50% in turnout. In 2012, it was 40%.

Whites though account for 77% of the voters. This is declining (it was in the mid 80s during the 80s). Certainly demo's are changing but not nearly as drastic as you note. at least based on what Ive seen.

So the fastest growing demo has the lowest voter turnout.

http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/demographics
 
Back
Top