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2020 Senate Races

I guess my basic math is non whites are 25% of the electorate (not 40%) and I doubt that they will drop to 60% in 4 years based on trends. I don't do his for a living so applying some basic math here and a 2 minute google search of census data & voting. It will certainly be interesting to watch this and how the parties react.

My broader point is we are entering a period where things can change so rapidly that using a demographic analysis could be very misleading. One stat is NC is 60% Pubs and Independents. This from a state that was once 75%+ dem. Wow.

Im still of the school of though that people vote for the person they like.

People liked W.
People liked Obama.

People hated both Hillary and Trump but its become an issue of hate less or tolerate.
 
In NC, people of color may vote in the biggest numbers ever for the next decade to make a statement against the overtly racist (according to the federal judge) voter suppression law.
 
RJKarl said:
In NC, people of color may vote in the biggest numbers ever for the next decade to make a statement against the overtly racist (according to the federal judge) voter suppression law.
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LOL
 
RJKarl said:
In NC, people of color may vote in the biggest numbers ever for the next decade to make a statement against the overtly racist (according to the federal judge) voter suppression law.
Click to expand...

They may not as well.
 
Rev. Barber is going to do everything he can to keep the light on this issue.

I think after the new Justice is approved Hillary will find a case to have brought to the Supreme Court to invalidate all of the GOP voter suppression laws. It's one of the most important things that can happen.
 
It is THE most important thing. We cannot allow our government to force people to show evidence of who they are. We, as Americans, should be able to show up and announce who we are and VOTE. It is extremely racist to ask minorities to provide evidence of their identities. If this is not stopped, I plan to sit down EVERY time the star spangled banner is played in my presence.
 
knowell said:
It is THE most important thing. We cannot allow our government to force people to show evidence of who they are. We, as Americans, should be able to show up and announce who we are and VOTE. It is extremely racist to ask minorities to provide evidence of their identities. If this is not stopped, I plan to sit down EVERY time the star spangled banner is played in my presence.
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That's not why it's racist and you know it.
 
Still a couple of months out but IL, WI, and probably IN are gonna flip. There is a good chance NH & PA flip as well. NV is true toss up territory as it will depend on voter turn out. To me MO, FL, & NC are leaning heavily to Pubs.
 
DeacWatcher said:
Still a couple of months out but IL, WI, and probably IN are gonna flip. There is a good chance NH & PA flip as well. NV is true toss up territory as it will depend on voter turn out. To me MO, FL, & NC are leaning heavily to Pubs.
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Thanks for attempting to get this thread on track and away from the nonsense.

To me, OH, FL, and PA are going to be the deciding races. Either way, neither party is going to have anything more than a 1-2 seat majority.
 
OH's slipping away. Portman has a big money lead and despite that Dems are pulling money away from Strickland. If GOP holds the Senate, do they still block Garland?
 
IL, WI and IN are in the Dem column. OH is clearly off the board. Portman keeps his seat.

Hassan has never been behind. I think it will be close, but Hillary's big win in NH should carry this one.

McGinty has been up in the last 2-3 polls. This is another one that Hillary needs to keep spending in PA to help McGinty win. The Dems shouldn't pull their ads in PA. They have plenty of money.

Burr has led at all times but could be the victim of a Hillary surprise win.

A landslide for Hillary in the EV could help win another.

I'd put it at a Dem +5.
 
Hassan was indeed behind in many of the Spring and Summer polls, but not since the conventions so far as I've seen. I would place PA & NH in the Dem lean category. NV has been the puzzling state in terms of polls. Heck isn't significantly out polling Trump, but they've been mostly ahead by a small margin in the polls, which surprises me because I thought the changing demographics in NV would bode well for both Hillary and Cortez-Masto. At this point, I'm thinking AZ, MO and NC are more likely gets for the Dems than OH & FL (though FL could change, but OH is probably done). The O/U should still be 50.5-51.
 
2016 Senate Races

Murphy has an uphill climb vs Rubio. Depends on which narratives take hold. Could be Little Marco vs Lying Patrick.

Murphy has to paint Rubio as a political opportunist who is only running to stay in the spotlight.
 
Hassan was behind in one poll since June. It was so far off as to possibly be a mistake. She was also behind in one other since May 1 by 1%.

I think 50.5 may the number for O/U.

In FL, I don't know why the Dems wouldn't spend $25M+ on ad buys showing Rubio saying he didn't like being Senator. I think that would be a powerful message. "He doesn't like the job. Why vote for him?"
 
RJKarl said:
Hassan was behind in one poll since June. It was so far off as to possibly be a mistake. She was also behind in one other since May 1 by 1%.

I think 50.5 may the number for O/U.

In FL, I don't know why the Dems wouldn't spend $25M+ on ad buys showing Rubio saying he didn't like being Senator. I think that would be a powerful message. "He doesn't like the job. Why vote for him?"
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i was thinking the same thing about that message.
 
It could backfire. Voters may want someone who hates government as much as they do.
 
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