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2020 Senate Races

Of the 2016 wannabes, Rubio, Cruz, Kasich, and Walker probably run again in 2020. Add in Pence, Haley, Martinez, Thune, and Portman. Cruz and Walker don't make it to the 2020 starting line if they lose in 2018. Not going to be able to take Portman out now. Presidential race is closer than expected, so not a lot of excess cash. Taking out Rubio now would be an added bonus, but higher probability wins elsewhere (NH, PA, NC, AZ).
 
It's a bigger climb in FL to be sure. But the fact it's so close for POTUS means more money might be spent. It's unlikely that Murphy will win, but he should look for another hook.

I think Clinton being so far ahead in PA may hurt McGinty.
 
Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton was elected in 2014. Going to Iowa next week and it isn't to campaign for Trump. Why be so blatant about your 2020 aspirations before the first 2016 presdential votes are cast anywhere?
 
If Cotton is the type of candidate the GOP is promoting, the will have learned nothing is the past eight years. To win 2020 against an incumbent, they will need to move much more to the middle and they will have to join Dems in passing immigration reform. If the GOP blocks immigration reform or puts up a joke plan, they have no chance. There won't be enough white people to vote for them.
 
No state knows the Clintons better than Arkansas and yet Cotton has already set his sites on challenging HRC in 2020. None of the 'Pub Senators in close races want anything to do with Trump and certainly aren't being penalized for it.
 
Man I think it's hilarious that Cotton thinks he has what it takes to be Prez. Doing this now is a complete snub of Trump and all Pubs. Really kind of a selfish dick move. The continuing Pub shit show provides America with more entertainment than we can stand.
 
CantStandYa said:
Thanks for attempting to get this thread on track and away from the nonsense.

To me, OH, FL, and PA are going to be the deciding races. Either way, neither party is going to have anything more than a 1-2 seat majority.
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Dems have written off OH and may pull out of FL soon. Looking like 51-49 GOP.
 
If the Dems hold NV, they will win in WI, IN, IL. All they have to do is win one of NH, PA, FL or NC to have a tie.
 
May be a long shot, but if Toomey wins in the anti-Trump wave in PA, his national profile is likely to increase. It's not out of the question for him to think about running. He would've won twice in a purple state and has a few signature issues to get him started. He's even won support from unlikely sources (Gabby Giffords' PAC, etc).
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Dems have written off OH and may pull out of FL soon. Looking like 51-49 GOP.
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Still think it'll be 50-51 Dems if things stay the same (a Clinton 3-4% win), but the final tally for president will impact a few of the races. 48 is the worst case scenario with a Trump victory, and could get up to 53-54 with a Dem landslide.
 
Hillary just won't be strong enough to bring any Dems with her, I think, if she pulls it out. I think the Dem candidates are largely going to have to win on their own merits.
 
Jamison2Carter said:
Hillary just won't be strong enough to bring any Dems with her, I think, if she pulls it out. I think the Dem candidates are largely going to have to win on their own merits.
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Without here, they are locks in three states - WI, IL, IN. They only need one other.
 
Jamison2Carter said:
Hillary just won't be strong enough to bring any Dems with her, I think, if she pulls it out. I think the Dem candidates are largely going to have to win on their own merits.
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This isn't necessarily true. McGinty is not exactly a strong candidate and Toomey is a relatively popular incumbent. If McGinty wins, it will likely be a "rising tide" effect from HRC and anti-Trump voters.

To your point, however, HRC will likely not be enough to lift the Dems in OH or FL.
 
CantStandYa said:
This isn't necessarily true. McGinty is not exactly a strong candidate and Toomey is a relatively popular incumbent. If McGinty wins, it will likely be a "rising tide" effect from HRC and anti-Trump voters.

To your point, however, HRC will likely not be enough to lift the Dems in OH or FL.
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Yeah, the states where the senator candidates' numbers most closely mirror Clinton's numbers are NV, AZ, NH & PA. IN on the Dem side, and FL & OH on the Pub side are widely disparate.
 
Ayotte stepped in a pile last night when she said Trump would be a good role model and then later said she misspoke under a barrage of social media and jeers. This one as well as NC & NV will go right to the end before we see a clear winner. It seems like McGinty is pulling away from Toomey & Rubio is pulling away from Murphy.
 
DeacWatcher said:
Ayotte stepped in a pile last night when she said Trump would be a good role model and then later said she misspoke under a barrage of social media and jeers. This one as well as NC & NV will go right to the end before we see a clear winner. It seems like McGinty is pulling away from Toomey & Rubio is pulling away from Murphy.
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I maintain that Burr's internals look awful for him or he wouldn't be airing the same ads against Ross as McCrory is running against Cooper.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I was skeptical about the idea of Hillary coattails, but these GOP candidates either waited too long to disavow Trump, didn't do it strongly enough, or didn't do it at all. If he continues his current trajectory, he'll go down in a blaze of insanity and take all the tentative GOP Senate candidates with him.
 
CantStandYa said:
This isn't necessarily true. McGinty is not exactly a strong candidate and Toomey is a relatively popular incumbent. If McGinty wins, it will likely be a "rising tide" effect from HRC and anti-Trump voters.

To your point, however, HRC will likely not be enough to lift the Dems in OH or FL.
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Looks like Portman and Little Marco are pulling up Trump. Trump has no GOTV operations anywhere, so he relies on strong Senate candidates.

IL, WI, and IN are in the bag for the Dems. Need one of PA, NH, NC, or NV. HRC has leads outside the margin of error in the first two states.
 
538 has it as 61.3% chance of Dems winning the Senate.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Looks like Portman and Little Marco are pulling up Trump. Trump has no GOTV operations anywhere, so he relies on strong Senate candidates.

IL, WI, and IN are in the bag for the Dems. Need one of PA, NH, NC, or NV. HRC has leads outside the margin of error in the first two states.
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Actually, need 2 not 1 b/c NV going Pub would be a net loss. At this point, I'm thinking Hassan and McGinty are slight favorites, which gets you to 50. NV is a pure toss-up, and NC is surprisingly close in all 3 races. And in addition to FL and OH now being clearer Pub favorites, I'd throw in AZ and MO as clearer favorites than they were a few weeks ago. I'd set the current O/U at 50.5.
 
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