FMR, I was looking at a piece on racial make-ups of each of the states, and 25% of the NV electorate is now either Latino or Asian. While the non-college educated white population there is still significantly higher than the college educated white population, that 25% figure is going to be difficult for Pubs to overcome there if the Dems are any good at GOTV there. And while eligible Latinos by percentage have not voted with the same frequency as whites and African-Americans in this country in the past, I'm thinking that they will in this election cycle.
Kinda surprised at both IA and NV. Demographics greatly favor Trump in IA, but the polls are still very close. Clinton campaign has been funneling volunteers there from Chicago and Hillary was there for an early voting kickoff event, but it's not a huge priority for then. They'll know quickly where they are in early voting and decide whether to fish or cut bait. Trump's GOTV free campaign was fortunate to get second there during the caucuses.
Also pretty casual about NV. Surprised that Plouffe was so candid that their polling and turnout models underestimated Obama's totals both times. Dems definitely want to lock down CA, CO, AZ, NV, and NM permanently and only have CA and NM now. NV should be a priority because of the Senate seat.
Dems have eyed AZ for a long time. Liked their 2008 prospects, but McCain was too big a hurdle. ASU is one of the crappiest schools in the country, but it's the largest school in AZ and Obama gladly spoke at graduation in 2009. CA's Central Valley is the most conservative part of the state (delivered Prop 8), but heavily Latino and Michelle spoke at brand new UC Merced's 2009 graduation. Still conservative, but Trump caught a lot of shit in Fresno during the CA primary. Surprised that HRC hasn't made a bigger push in NV and AZ this cycle.
IA should be a slam dunk for Trump and if he loses there, he's losing badly nationally. Next GOP Chair better be quant driven. Trump used slide rulers in college and calculators were new when Mitt was in b school, but anyone younger than mid 40s who studied business, economics, statistics, or math should have a reasonable understanding of data mining. GOP got W re-elected in 2004 because Ken Mehlman understood analytics. Stunning that the business party got crushed on analytics from 2008 until now. Only 1 in 5 millenials identify with GOP values. Can't repulse the young, educated, and analytics and remain a viable national party. Conway's sharp, but not as bright as Plouffe and Mehlman and she's worked for Bachmann, Akin, Pence, Carson, Cruz, and Trump. Ironic that Mehlman and Robby Mook (HRC's Campaign Manager) are both gay. Both won/will win elections with crappy candidates via data and GOTV. Maybe being socially inclusive pays more dividends just winning elections.
Bubba fucked up trashing Obama and Obamacare, but Feingold and Bayh will return to the Senate easily despite voting for Obamacare. Dems may not win the Senate and certainly won't hold it, but a pure block HRC strategy from the GOP won't work. Go Weld on social policies, confirm Garland immediately, and make peace with minorities. Otherwise they're looking at 8 Dem appointed Supreme Court Justices at the end of Castro's first term in 2028.