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2020 Senate Races

NV could come down to whether or not the unions get their members to the polls. If they do, Reid's seat could be saved.
 
I was skeptical about the idea of Hillary coattails, but these GOP candidates either waited too long to disavow Trump, didn't do it strongly enough, or didn't do it at all. If he continues his current trajectory, he'll go down in a blaze of insanity and take all the tentative GOP Senate candidates with him.

I wonder to what extent the ground games of the candidates helps the down ballot candidates. The canvassers that came to my door were also supporting McGinty. Getting voters in Philly registered should help as well.
 
NV could come down to whether or not the unions get their members to the polls. If they do, Reid's seat could be saved.

Trump is getting a much higher % of the white union vote than his Pub predecessors because he's an anti-trade protectionist. More like they need to get Latinos to the polls in NV.
 
Trump is getting a much higher % of the white union vote than his Pub predecessors because he's an anti-trade protectionist. More like they need to get Latinos to the polls in NV.

Unlike a lot of other states,union membership in NV has a very large Latino contingent.
 
Trump is getting a much higher % of the white union vote than his Pub predecessors because he's an anti-trade protectionist. More like they need to get Latinos to the polls in NV.

Plouffe said their internal polling and models underestimated Obama's actual NV totals both times. Latinos, unions, Mormons, no Trump ground game, Johnson's collapse, and the Evan McMullin nothing burger make it likely the NV public polling is understated. HRC doesn't need NV to win, but they'd like a Southwest toe hold (CO, NM, NV, AZ) for the future as they'd like to turn TX purple by 2024 at the latest. Then it truly would be game over (CA, NY, IL, plus contested FL and TX) for the current GOP coalition. Treating NV like a nice to have (Warren & Bernie) for now. They either don't care or think it's in the bag. Much more intriguing to see how hard they push for AZ late. Kinda depends on internal Senate polling (NV vs other states that get them to 50 or 51).
 

Folks that are going to still vote for this nutjob (Trump) need to take a long hard look in the mirror to really see the kind of person they are. Truthfully, I don't ever want to be around these types of folks and if deplorable is the word that describes them, then so be it.
 
Plouffe said their internal polling and models underestimated Obama's actual NV totals both times. Latinos, unions, Mormons, no Trump ground game, Johnson's collapse, and the Evan McMullin nothing burger make it likely the NV public polling is understated. HRC doesn't need NV to win, but they'd like a Southwest toe hold (CO, NM, NV, AZ) for the future as they'd like to turn TX purple by 2024 at the latest. Then it truly would be game over (CA, NY, IL, plus contested FL and TX) for the current GOP coalition. Treating NV like a nice to have (Warren & Bernie) for now. They either don't care or think it's in the bag. Much more intriguing to see how hard they push for AZ late. Kinda depends on internal Senate polling (NV vs other states that get them to 50 or 51).

I had kinda figured the little polling we had in NV was a bit off because the numbers weren't making sense. Makes more sense with your conveying Plouffe's explanation. I want Clinton spending time and $$ in NV b/c I want that senate seat. The polling in both NC & NV senate races seems to closely parallel the presidential race - and in NC the Gov's race too. Get both of those, and the senate could be 52-48 till the Pubs win it back in 2018 (and reduces their margin of victory in 2018 accordingly). Then someone needs to tell Ginsberg to retire next June.

As for Ayotte, I don't know why she hasn't just gone all Jeff Flake on Trump. Most all Trump voters are going to vote for her anyway, so she loses precious little by going all Flake. And NH has a fair amount of establishment Pubs who may vote for Johnson or Clinton because they hate Trump but will still vote her - and will more likely do so if she's anti-Trump too.
 
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I had kinda figured the little polling we had in NV was a bit off because the numbers weren't making sense. Makes more sense with your conveying Plouffe's explanation. I want Clinton spending time and $$ in NV b/c I want that senate seat. The polling in both NC & NV senate races seems to closely parallel the presidential race - and in NC the Gov's race too. Get both of those, and the senate could be 52-48 till the Pubs win it back in 2018 (and reduces their margin of victory in 2018 accordingly). Then someone needs to tell Ginsberg to retire next June.

As for Ayotte, I don't know why she hasn't just gone all Jeff Flake on Trump. Most all Trump voters are going to vote for her anyway, so she loses precious little by going all Flake. And NH has a fair amount of establishment Pubs who may vote for Johnson or Clinton because they hate Trump but will still vote her - and will more likely do so if she's anti-Trump too.

Plouffe's one smart mofo. Was extremely dubious when he claimed HRC would win IA, OH, and NC, but Hillary now leads in NC and OH and Trump's lead in IA has evaporated to less than 1%.

The Clintons are far from team players, but the ideal Dem map for now and the future would be Obama 2012 plus NC, AZ, and GA. Won't get there, but would exacerbate the GOP war on social issues and minorities.

Reading between the lines, Dems think they have a good shot to win NC and take out McCrory and Burr. Do think Dems were pleasantly surprised to see college educated White suburban support implode for Trump. No accident that Michelle's in CLT and RDU. Paradoxically taking LGBT issues off the table would be better for the GOP for 2018 and beyond, but Pence, Cruz, and Huckabee will take the ship down, GOP future national viability be damned.

Like Ayotte, but she fucked up by not following the Portman, McCain, Flake, Heller model on Trump. Conway's the GOP It Girl, but a shrewd 2020 GOP wannabe eying a general election victory would be better off following a Weld socially libertarian playbook.

Totally agree on RBG, but one of the 2020 wannabes (Cruz, Cotton, or Little Marco) may still filibuster Garland. A Dem Senate majority would shit can the filibuster and ram two mid-40s liberal judges through before 2018.
 
Plouffe's one smart mofo. Was extremely dubious when he claimed HRC would win IA, OH, and NC, but Hillary now leads in NC and OH and Trump's lead in IA has evaporated to less than 1%.

The Clintons are far from team players, but the ideal Dem map for now and the future would be Obama 2012 plus NC, AZ, and GA. Won't get there, but would exacerbate the GOP war on social issues and minorities.

Reading between the lines, Dems think they have a good shot to win NC and take out McCrory and Burr. Do think Dems were pleasantly surprised to see college educated White suburban support implode for Trump. No accident that Michelle's in CLT and RDU. Paradoxically taking LGBT issues off the table would be better for the GOP for 2018 and beyond, but Pence, Cruz, and Huckabee will take the ship down, GOP future national viability be damned.

Like Ayotte, but she fucked up by not following the Portman, McCain, Flake, Heller model on Trump. Conway's the GOP It Girl, but a shrewd 2020 GOP wannabe eying a general election victory would be better off following a Weld socially libertarian playbook.

Totally agree on RBG, but one of the 2020 wannabes (Cruz, Cotton, or Little Marco) may still filibuster Garland. A Dem Senate majority would shit can the filibuster and ram two mid-40s liberal judges through before 2018.

I'd be happy to take Trump against Hillary in Ohio, Iowa & North Carolina. I think Hillary is going to win the election, but I don't think she is going to win in Iowa or Ohio...and I won't believe she is going to win in North Carolina until I see it, though she does have that huge monolithic black vote in the state. What is it, now, 23% of the total vote in the state?
 
It may be 23% but I am sure douche bag Pubs will try to make voting illegal to women and minorities by 2020 if they can.
 
Trump's problem in NC isn't with a "monolithic black vote," its educated whites fleeing the GOP at breakneck speed. A country club Republican still wins NC against HRC, an unqualified bigot gets beaten. Burr made a huge mistake by endorsing Trump. Whoever advised him to do that should be out of politics in a month.


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I can't remember but is this Helm's old seat or the Edwards seat that keeps flipping.
 
I can't remember but is this Helm's old seat or the Edwards seat that keeps flipping.

2016 is the Edwards seat. Tillis' seat is Helms seat that flips around.


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Dems are spending an absurd amount of time down here. Clinton and both Obamas in the past 3 weeks.
 
Dems are spending an absurd amount of time down here. Clinton and both Obamas in the past 3 weeks.

Congratulations, glad I'm here in VA. We've had relatively few ads in central VA and only a few visits, unlike the last couple of election cycles.

FMR, I was looking at a piece on racial make-ups of each of the states, and 25% of the NV electorate is now either Latino or Asian. While the non-college educated white population there is still significantly higher than the college educated white population, that 25% figure is going to be difficult for Pubs to overcome there if the Dems are any good at GOTV there. And while eligible Latinos by percentage have not voted with the same frequency as whites and African-Americans in this country in the past, I'm thinking that they will in this election cycle.
 
FMR, I was looking at a piece on racial make-ups of each of the states, and 25% of the NV electorate is now either Latino or Asian. While the non-college educated white population there is still significantly higher than the college educated white population, that 25% figure is going to be difficult for Pubs to overcome there if the Dems are any good at GOTV there. And while eligible Latinos by percentage have not voted with the same frequency as whites and African-Americans in this country in the past, I'm thinking that they will in this election cycle.

Kinda surprised at both IA and NV. Demographics greatly favor Trump in IA, but the polls are still very close. Clinton campaign has been funneling volunteers there from Chicago and Hillary was there for an early voting kickoff event, but it's not a huge priority for then. They'll know quickly where they are in early voting and decide whether to fish or cut bait. Trump's GOTV free campaign was fortunate to get second there during the caucuses.

Also pretty casual about NV. Surprised that Plouffe was so candid that their polling and turnout models underestimated Obama's totals both times. Dems definitely want to lock down CA, CO, AZ, NV, and NM permanently and only have CA and NM now. NV should be a priority because of the Senate seat.

Dems have eyed AZ for a long time. Liked their 2008 prospects, but McCain was too big a hurdle. ASU is one of the crappiest schools in the country, but it's the largest school in AZ and Obama gladly spoke at graduation in 2009. CA's Central Valley is the most conservative part of the state (delivered Prop 8), but heavily Latino and Michelle spoke at brand new UC Merced's 2009 graduation. Still conservative, but Trump caught a lot of shit in Fresno during the CA primary. Surprised that HRC hasn't made a bigger push in NV and AZ this cycle.

IA should be a slam dunk for Trump and if he loses there, he's losing badly nationally. Next GOP Chair better be quant driven. Trump used slide rulers in college and calculators were new when Mitt was in b school, but anyone younger than mid 40s who studied business, economics, statistics, or math should have a reasonable understanding of data mining. GOP got W re-elected in 2004 because Ken Mehlman understood analytics. Stunning that the business party got crushed on analytics from 2008 until now. Only 1 in 5 millenials identify with GOP values. Can't repulse the young, educated, and analytics and remain a viable national party. Conway's sharp, but not as bright as Plouffe and Mehlman and she's worked for Bachmann, Akin, Pence, Carson, Cruz, and Trump. Ironic that Mehlman and Robby Mook (HRC's Campaign Manager) are both gay. Both won/will win elections with crappy candidates via data and GOTV. Maybe being socially inclusive pays more dividends just winning elections.

Bubba fucked up trashing Obama and Obamacare, but Feingold and Bayh will return to the Senate easily despite voting for Obamacare. Dems may not win the Senate and certainly won't hold it, but a pure block HRC strategy from the GOP won't work. Go Weld on social policies, confirm Garland immediately, and make peace with minorities. Otherwise they're looking at 8 Dem appointed Supreme Court Justices at the end of Castro's first term in 2028.
 
I was just about to post that. Down to 57% that Dems will get control.
 
Dems are spending an absurd amount of time down here. Clinton and both Obamas in the past 3 weeks.

Seems like Dems saw what happened in VA between 2004-2012 and are trying to replicate that elsewhere. The 2028 EC map could look starkly different, with NC, GA, and even SC regularly going blue, while OH, MI, and maybe WI lean red.
 
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