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2020 Senate Races

Current GOP is dead. Whatever's left will have to figure out how Obama got re-elected post Obamacare, how they ended up with Trump & Cruz as their final two, how they lost the Senate, and how someone as hated as HRC became POTUS. Not a lot of easy explanations.

I wouldn't say the GOP is dead, even though they will likely lose the presidency and the senate. They'll still have the House, more governors and I believe more state assemblies. And if you look at the 3 remaining candidates, all 3 still preach a conservative social agenda (though I'd acknowledge Drumpf is a faux social conservative). And 2 of the 3 remaining have a mostly fiscal conservative platform. But I do find it interesting that large numbers of Pubs are rejecting 2 things in this election cycle. First, 40+% appear to reject the donor class' fiscal conservative and free trade positions. Can it be explained solely by a fatal attraction to an authoritarian Drumpf personality cult, and his voters don't buy his economic message? I don't think so because that is his main message. So that could be a serious divide within the party down the road. Second, none of the 3 remaining candidates are neocons. Little Marco was the only real neocon in the race, and he couldn't win a single state. While Drumpf and Cruz aren't quite Rand Paul type isolationists, they do have a bit more of an "America First" streak and aren't necessarily looking for military responses to be our first responses. I see this election cycle as a clear rejection of the W/Cheney neocon foreign policy, and more than anything else this cycle, I find that to be encouraging.

And FWIW, I believe the Dem party also has some fissures developing. It wouldn't surprise me to see some party realignment over the next 5-10 years.
 
Current GOP is dead. Whatever's left will have to figure out how Obama got re-elected post Obamacare, how they ended up with Trump & Cruz as their final two, how they lost the Senate, and how someone as hated as HRC became POTUS. Not a lot of easy explanations.

I didn't even have NC in the maybe category. If Pubs are fighting to retain NC, AR, MO and LA, that ain't good for them.
 
Living in SC all my life, I don't know much politically about NC except for WNC and Charlotte. How do places like Greensboro, Winston, Durham, Chapel Hill, Raleigh, Greenville, and Wilmington vote? Is it mostly conservative or 50/50? I know its become more liberal like VA or Obama wouldn't have won it in 08 even by the slimmest of margins.

Can anyone elaborate?

Oh and RC I had seen Ross down by 8-10, I didn't know things had already tightened up.
 
Living in SC all my life, I don't know much politically about NC except for WNC and Charlotte. How do places like Greensboro, Winston, Durham, Chapel Hill, Raleigh, Greenville, and Wilmington vote? Is it mostly conservative or 50/50? I know its become more liberal like VA or Obama wouldn't have won it in 08 even by the slimmest of margins.

Can anyone elaborate?

Oh and RC I had seen Ross down by 8-10, I didn't know things had already tightened up.

Generally areas around Universities vote liberal, everything else is conservative. Durham and Chapel Hill are liberal, Winston and Raleigh are about 50/50 because of the suburbs. Winston has more of that crazy Trump/Cruz conservative while Raleighs pubs are Rubio/Paul Ryan frat bros.
 
Ross is an very unlikeable person, at least she was the handful of times when I've met her. I think her campaign will largely be "Im not these whack jobs" but Burr seems to always get just enough. He's a pretty savvy guy.

Cooper, who lacks any semblance of a personality, should win due to the stupidity of HB2. Pat shot himself in the head on that one. That being said, NC did vote to ban gay marriage so nothing surprises me here.
 
Social conservatism got crushed nationally: Huckabee, Santorum, Perry, Jindal, Sleepy, Carly, and Cruz all flamed out and none will be Trump's VP. Mitch Daniels wisely said the GOP should table divisive social issues years ago, but social conservatives refused to heed the warning and won't have a voice/representative on the GOP ticket. Pushed too hard on social issues too long and made themselves extinct. Trump pretended to be socially conservative for awhile until he realized he could still win the GOP nomination without them. Won't even pretend in the general election and it will help him.

Not Senators, but Pence and McCrory are screwed. Trump will spend a lot of time in IN and NC and he won't embrace their social agenda. They'll have to move toward him, not the other way around. Will alienate their base and ultimately drag them down.

Whoever wins the general election will win the Senate, but neither party will have anything close to a filibuster proof majority. House will remain 'Pub no matter what, but Trump will push McConnell to eliminate the filibuster once Dems block him. Hillary will do the same after Cruz filibusters her first Supreme Court nominee.
 
Dems also now targeting IN and KY to states already mentioned. Probably pick up at least four seats, but could be as high as ten. Four plus POTUS gives them control.
 
The Dems ain't winning IN or KY unless Todd Akin's tea bagger cousin upsets the establishment choice in IN. Right now, I'd put the O/U at 5.5 in the senate.

But let me take issue with your prior post. I don't think social conservatism is dead. Cruz, and to a lesser extent, Kasich are social conservatives. And Drumpf is at least faking it. And Little Marco was also a social conservative. Although I will concede it's on the wane. But if Drumpf loses this year, the message in 2020 will be that they lost last time with a fake conservative and need a real conservative next time. But what I think is deader than social conservatism is neocon foreign policy and to a lesser extent fiscal conservatism. The only neocon in the race lost badly, and both Cruz and Drumpf reject that kind of foreign policy. And if you add Drumpf's support and Bernie's support, over half the voters in the primaries have embraced economic populism and isolationism and have rejected globalization and free trade.
 
If HRC wins, Dems will likely have the five youngest justices on the court, so additional abortion restrictions will be on the back burner since a constitutional ban would never pass or be ratified. HB2 has shown that transgender rights are moving much faster than anyone ever anticipated. Most, if not all, of the LGBT rights battles will be over by 2020. Cruz may be the only hardcore social warrior left who makes another run at POTUS in 2020. Almost all of the 2008-2016 social conservatives aren't even holding office anymore. Sounds like McCain and Ayotte will reluctantly support Trump.
 
Based on Reince and Toomey, it seems the strategy is to claim to be "Never Hillary." Which seems super lazy, since the call to beat Trump was "Never Trump."
 
Murphy is going to get national money because Grayson may as well be the Dem version of Cruz. Nobody in the establishment wants him to have a bigger stage.

Grayson and Harry Reid are openly feuding. Dems obviously want Murphy over Grayson. Think there's a reasonable chance Scott will be Trump's VP and FL will be heavily contested.

McGinty is surprisingly close to Toomey in PA. Not on the ballot, but Elizabeth Warren trolling Trump benefits her, HRC, and Dems. MA GOP Governor Charlie Baker has the highest approval rating in the country and won't vote for Trump. Trump trashing Warren helps her in MA and doesn't help Trump with women. NH will be tight and Boston media bleeds into NH. Trump won't help Ayotte.
 
Toomey - or at least his super PAC(s) - has already started running attack ads against McGinty and the election is six months away. Gonna be a long summer.

I'm already sick of getting spammed with McGinty attack ads and Vince Papale. It is May.
 
Buzz for Brown as HRC's VP is increasing. Would be a good electoral and governing choice, but definitely comes at a price. If Hillary needs Brown to carry OH, Senate control will be close. Kasich would just replace Brown with a 'Pub. Kaine's a safer, but more boring pick.
 
It's not worth messing with the Senate just for a VP. Especially one nobody really knows.
 
Dems also now targeting IN and KY to states already mentioned. Probably pick up at least four seats, but could be as high as ten. Four plus POTUS gives them control.

If Trump tanks, he could take the following Senate seats with him:

IL
WI
NH
PA
OH
FL
NC
MO

It may save races in OR and CO. A huge Hispanic turnout could save Reid's seat.

It's going to be too close to take Warren or Brown as VP with their GOP governors. Brown's seat wouldn't be voted on for two years.
 
It's not worth messing with the Senate just for a VP. Especially one nobody really knows.

This. Especially if you want to get your judicial nominees confirmed. Which means neither Brown nor Warren (nor Booker for that matter - he also has Wall Street connections in an anti Wall Street year) should be veep because you'd at least initially get a Pub replacement. That would likely change in 2 years in MA but not necessarily OH. I've also opined that she shouldn't choose Kaine because McAuliffe is not nearly as bulletproof and is much more likely to lose in the next mid-term. There are 2 high profile senators where choosing them would have a neutral affect in the senate. First is Franken. A Dem MN gov would appoint another Dem, and MN rarely goes Pub. And Franken might shore up support with the less ardent Bernie bros. The other is McCaskill. She's dead woman walking in 2018 in the senate anyway, unless the ghost of Todd Akin gets the Pub nomination. And Jay Nixon is term limited and would appoint himself to that seat, and he'd probably have a better shot than her of retaining that seat in 2018 - though it's still a likely loss. McCaskill is pretty good on the stump and would be doubling down on the Hillary woman card as Drumpf calls it.

The more I think about it, the more I like choice of either Franken or McCaskill, both of whom are big supporters of Hillary. The Castros give you nothing - you're already going to get 80% of the Latino vote - and enthusiastically so because of Drumpf - Latino voter registration is reportedly up from prior years. Some of the other names I've seen most voters wouldn't recognize, and I think she needs someone with name recognition and some gravitas for the position.
 
Baker has the highest approval rating of any governor in the country. I think he'll likely be reelected.
 
Buzz for Brown as HRC's VP is increasing. Would be a good electoral and governing choice, but definitely comes at a price. If Hillary needs Brown to carry OH, Senate control will be close. Kasich would just replace Brown with a 'Pub. Kaine's a safer, but more boring pick.

Same problem with Warren RE: GOP governor. Similarly, Casey from PA might get a long look - swing state, Dem Gov, moderate record.
 
Anything can happen, but doubtful that Trump or Hillary wins and doesn't have control of the Senate. Don't think Hillary needs help with Latinos (Castro, Perez) or women (Warren). If she goes specifically for PA (Casey) or OH (Brown), she's probably not going to win. Probably needs more help with liberals (Warren, Bernie, Franken, Merkley). Do think that like Cruz, Bernie's screwed himself for VP. Don't think Trump, HRC, Cruz, or Bernie give two shits about party or party unity.
 
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