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2020 Senate Races

PhDeac said:
Yeah. I think that is an awful take on the Republican Party. The Pub base truly believes in Trump and they aren’t going to stop just because he loses. And they aren’t going to appreciate people who abandoned him early.

The Republican base will certainly choose a more polished version of Trump if not Trump himself. Trump has 94% approval rating among Republicans. He’s had over 90% approval within the GOP during the entire pandemic except for one poll in June. This is his best year of approval among Republicans.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
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So, do you disagree with my take on his motivations? Or, do you agree but think Sasse is miscalculated in doing so?

The reality is that Sasse is either saying these things for a calculated political reason, or he genuinely wants to stand up to Trump and be a principled Republican. I am assuming the primary reason is the former with maybe a hint of the latter. 4 years is a long time in politics. Pubs may love Trump today, but there may be a whole lot of revisionist history in 4 years on why people really supported Trump and I’m guessing Sasse is counting on that.
 
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I'm not Ph, but yes, I think Sasse is miscalculating and is misreading the Pub base. Either that or he's about to do a 180 change and makeover of his political beliefs, much like Edwards in 2008 and Romney in 2012.
 
The winds are changing and Sasse is a weathervane. I disagree that the next Republican candidate will be anything like trump. His brand is going to be resoundingly defeated, their base will continue to shrink, and safe red states like Arizona, Georgia, and Texas are becoming bluer every year. The GOP will be forced to change On certain issues or become irrelevant. That’s why I’ve been telling people that if they want an actual Conservative party, they should be hoping for a blue wave this election.
 
wakelaw13 said:
The winds are changing and Sasse is a weathervane. I disagree that the next Republican candidate will be anything like trump. His brand is going to be resoundingly defeated, their base will continue to shrink, and safe red states like Arizona, Georgia, and Texas are becoming bluer every year. The GOP will be forced to change On certain issues or become irrelevant. That’s why I’ve been telling people that if they want an actual Conservative party, they should be hoping for a blue wave this election.
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Good post - this is where I am too. They are about to get crushed and (quite possibly) lose Congress and the White House. Don’t see people doubling down on those results.
 
There only 2 people with a chance to be the republican nominee in 2024 if President Trump loses, and both of them are named Donald J. Trump.
 
Les Grossman said:
He wants to run for President in 2024. Laying the groundwork now. He’s predicting a blue wave and wants a record of not being a sycophant in 4 years and show how he was a man of principle.
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cville deac said:
I think this is the right take as well. That said, what Sasse has to sell (a more traditional brand of conservatism) is not what the Pub base is buying these days. The party has become a populist white nationalist party, which is why I don't see someone like Sasse or Haley getting the nomination unless they are willing to sellout their prior beliefs and embrace their inner Trump - which I can see Haley more easily doing than Sasse. I certainly could be wrong, but I see the 2024 Pub nominee being more of a Don Jr. or a Cotton, not a Bush or a Romney type.
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Yep.


Republican leaders have only themselves to blame for the shit show their party has become.


Congratulations.


They’ve earned the crushing defeat I hope they’re about to enjoy.


One can only hope they take the opportunity to figure out a way forward that is better and not continue along their path of entrenched degradation.
 
DeaconSig said:
There only 2 people with a chance to be the republican nominee in 2024 if President Trump loses, and both of them are named Donald J. Trump.
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This may be the correct take, but Sasse knows he is not going to go down that road and act like Trump. So, he’s going to be the “principled” candidate and I believe he’s saying what he’s saying now because he hopes that will be the winning strategy 4 years from now if Trump gets trounced this election cycle.
 
Les Grossman said:
This may be the correct take, but Sasse knows he is not going to go down that road and act like Trump. So, he’s going to be the “principled” candidate and I believe he’s saying what he’s saying now because he hopes that will be the winning strategy 4 years from now if Trump gets trounced this election cycle.
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I don’t disagree. I just think he is wrong.
 
DeaconSig said:
There only 2 people with a chance to be the republican nominee in 2024 if President Trump loses, and both of them are named Donald J. Trump.
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I have my doubts that Trump will be able to run in 2024. He will either be out of the country, in jail, or most likely, his battery will run out. Though the jail thing didn't stop Lyndon LaRouche.
 
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DeaconSig said:
There only 2 people with a chance to be the republican nominee in 2024 if President Trump loses, and both of them are named Donald J. Trump.
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I don't believe that for a second. Once reality of the ass kicking they will take in 2020, most Pubs (except the most ardent conservatives who may well form their own Conservative party) will camp slightly right of center and become competitive again in 2028 once the Dems screw up everything they touch, which they often do.
 
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DeacsPop said:
I don't believe that for a second. Once reality of the ass kicking they will take in 2020, most Pubs (except the most ardent conservatives who may well form their own Conservative party) will move left of center and become competitive again in 2028 once the Dems screw up everything they touch, which they often do.
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Maybe Washington pols, but not the Pub base. And if those pols move that way, they may get back some of the establishment folks they've lose, but they'll lose that enthusiastic redneck base that Trump has energized.
 
The GOP base isn't going to change if Trump loses, at least not quickly. Even if he loses by 10 million votes he'll claim that he was cheated due to fraud, and the great majority of his base will believe him. He'll continue to tweet and attack anyone who criticizes him, including Republicans like Sasse, and he'll continue to have influence in the party, as he has in numerous GOP primaries, like Alabama, where his support of Tuberville helped beat Sessions. Even if Trump or his son isn't the nominee in 2024, a Trump clone, perhaps more polished, almost certainly will be. One to watch is Cotton in AR. He's got the ruthless ambition, and he seems to understand the importance of symbolism and attacking liberals to Trump voters, while doing it in a more polished and less crude way. He could morph himself into a more disciplined, controlled, and smarter version of Trump. I just don't see the party going back to a Romney or McCain type soon. In 2024 most GOP candidates will probably fall over themselves trying to appeal to their Trumpite base in the primaries, and Trump's endorsement will almost certainly still have an impact on the race.
 
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Nah; once Dump gets dumped he will be persona non grata for the loss of an election that, feasibly, if he stuck to the issues, he would have been competitive.
I believe Pubs will recognize (if they don't already) his brand of shit only alienates people and in 8 years the Party will be cleansed of his miserable legacy.
(And the thought of his son winning even a dog catcher seat just makes me laugh.)
 
DeacsPop said:
Nah; once Dump gets dumped he will be persona non grata for the loss of an election that, feasibly, if he stuck to the issues, he would have been competitive.
I believe Pubs will recognize (if they don't already) his brand of shit only alienates people and in 8 years the Party will be cleansed of his miserable legacy.
(And the thought of his son winning even a dog catcher seat just makes me laugh.)
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I think you're going to be sadly disappointed, but I guess we'll find out in 2024.
 
 
Ha.

Pubs in the minority are simply going to go back to dishonestly demonizing whatever Dems do, even if very good and needed things. And emphasizing their preferred mythologies of the magic of lower taxes, less “regulation”, “smaller government”, white/conservative grievance, bootstrap economic “reforms”, etc.

Sadly, this strategy has worked and may again.

Anyhow, I agree it’s unlikely they’ll want to stick with Trump. But what he’ll do and if they can successfully get away from him remains to be seen. Regardless, I wish they’d change for the (otherwise) better but that seems doubtful. I mean, their preferred formula for success is what paved the way for Trump’s takeover in the first place.
 
There are two things people are hesitant to accept about Republicans.

Conservative policies are very unpopular. And to make them more palatable, conservatives sugar coat them with plenty of racism.

This marriage between wealthy elites who want to protect their business interests and poorly educated white people goes back to the Civil War. The partnership has been sustainable because the elites boarded enough capital and had enough influence and white voters made up a dominate portion of the electorate due to demographics and denying voting rights.

Trump was the id of this approach. Old money with an entertainment background who bought into conservative media and could foment white grievance.

That partnership does not seem sustainable if Trump is roundly defeated. The problem for Republicans is that if they just shift to conservatism and purge white grievance politics, all they have are unpopular policies that have failed dramatically for the last 40 years. If they go all in for white grievance politics, there just aren’t enough white people for that to work especially if Democrats pass needs voting rights laws to make it harder to deny voting rights.
 
ConnorEl said:
Ha.

Pubs in the minority are simply going to go back to dishonestly demonizing whatever Dems do, even if very good and needed things. And emphasizing their preferred mythologies of the magic of lower taxes, less “regulation”, “smaller government”, white/conservative grievance, bootstrap economic “reforms”, etc.

Sadly, this strategy has worked and may again.

Anyhow, I agree it’s unlikely they’ll want to stick with Trump. But what he’ll do and if they can successfully get away from him remains to be seen. Regardless, I wish they’d change for the (otherwise) better but that seems doubtful. I mean, their preferred formula for success is what paved the way for Trump’s takeover in the first place.
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Yep.

"The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president," - Mitch McConnell, 2010

"The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Biden to be a one-term president," - Mitch McConnell, 2020 (likely one of his first statements following a potential Biden win)
 
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