• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

2020 Senate Races

Ball State Deac said:
Evan Bayh is coming back to run for US Senate in Indiana. And will win.
Click to expand...

When Trump issued an emergency 24 hour fundraising request for $100K, he had $1.3M cash on hand. Bayh still has $9M on hand. IN's a swing state in name only (just like New Mexico), flipped once in the last six presidential elections. Was a back burner (behind AZ, GA, and MO) until today. If Pence isn't Trump's VP, Dems will invest in IN to prop up Bayh and pick off Pence.
 
16 GOP Senators won't attend the convention and another 6 are still undecided. Can understand incumbents in tough campaigns (Kirk, Johnson, Ayotte, McCain, Little Marco), but there are Senators from AL, WY, ID, MT, AK who are staying away. Thune's in a very safe race, but is still undecided. Kinda weird for a potential 2020 candidate.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
When Trump issued an emergency 24 hour fundraising request for $100K, he had $1.3M cash on hand. Bayh still has $9M on hand. IN's a swing state in name only (just like New Mexico), flipped once in the last six presidential elections. Was a back burner (behind AZ, GA, and MO) until today. If Pence isn't Trump's VP, Dems will invest in IN to prop up Bayh and pick off Pence.
Click to expand...

Indiana is not a swing state in name or in reality. It took an epically bad McCain candidate to barely lose to a generational candidate like '08 Obama. Bayh will still win the senate seat.
 
Ball State Deac said:
Indiana is not a swing state in name or in reality. It took an epically bad McCain candidate to barely lose to a generational candidate like '08 Obama. Bayh will still win the senate seat.
Click to expand...

How are you so sure? I get that he and his dad had long careers there, but he lost his last election, and IN is a very white and conservative state. I still think Hillary will get schlonged there. So is there going to be crossover vote down ticket for Bayh? Is it more that Coates is retiring, and the Pub nominee is weak? I confess this was a senate seat I had paid no attention to until today. I mean, I had AZ, MO, AR and LA as more likely pick-ups until now.
 
cville deac said:
How are you so sure? I get that he and his dad had long careers there, but he lost his last election, and IN is a very white and conservative state. I still think Hillary will get schlonged there. So is there going to be crossover vote down ticket for Bayh? Is it more that Coates is retiring, and the Pub nominee is weak? I confess this was a senate seat I had paid no attention to until today. I mean, I had AZ, MO, AR and LA as more likely pick-ups until now.
Click to expand...

Bayh retired in 2010, he didn't get defeated. As far as I can tell, he's never lost in IN. Does create a bit of a dilemma for Dems. Would love the Senate pick up, but IN's a tough state for them. IN's slightly more strategic for Dems than MO, but they'd much rather pick up AZ and NC.
 
cville deac said:
How are you so sure? I get that he and his dad had long careers there, but he lost his last election, and IN is a very white and conservative state. I still think Hillary will get schlonged there. So is there going to be crossover vote down ticket for Bayh? Is it more that Coates is retiring, and the Pub nominee is weak? I confess this was a senate seat I had paid no attention to until today. I mean, I had AZ, MO, AR and LA as more likely pick-ups until now.
Click to expand...

Evan has won at least 5 state-wide elections, maybe 6. His dad also won a bunch. And this is in a state that has voted for two Ds for POTUS in recent history - 1964 and 2008.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Bayh retired in 2010, he didn't get defeated. As far as I can tell, he's never lost in IN. Does create a bit of a dilemma for Dems. Would love the Senate pick up, but IN's a tough state for them. IN's slightly more strategic for Dems than MO, but they'd much rather pick up AZ and NC.
Click to expand...

What's the dilemma? Bayh has $10MM to spend.
 
Ball State Deac said:
What's the dilemma? Bayh has $10MM to spend.
Click to expand...

Dems want to cordinate and maximize their efforts in states where they have a chance to win a state and pick up a Senator. Lots of swing states fit, but not IN or MO. FL now looks shaky, so a well-funded Bayh is a huge gift. Dems would love to pick up GA for the future, but no Senate seat in play.

With an alarming number of GOP Senators boycotting the convention, Trump's going to have a tough time coordinating and fundraising with contested Senate races.
 
Thanks for the responses. Sabato's site is calling the IN senate race a toss-up. EV.com hasn't updated their senate page yet. Here's what I don't get about IN. Trump will win IN in all likelihood. So if Bayh is going to win, he needs crossover votes. What Trump voter is going to cross over for 1 of the ultimate Washington establishment type insiders in Bayh? I mean, I get that in NH, there may well be a fair amount of crossover with folks voting Clinton and Ayotte. And maybe some Clinton and Rubio voters in FL or Clinton and Heck in NV. But in states like AZ and IN, I have a hard time seeing folks pull the lever for Trump and then Kirkpatrick or Bayh. Is it a cognitive dissonance kind of thing where a Trump voter at the same time thinks back to Bayh being an alright guy who brought home the bacon?
 
Random note: this is Dan Quale's old seat, which he resigned in 1988 when he was elected VP. He had previously defeated Birch Bayh in 1980. Dan Coats was appointed to the seat in 88, and held it until he retired in 98. Bayh then won the seat and held until he retired in 2010. Coats then ran again and won, deciding to retire in 2016. Bayh will likely get it back in 2016.

This means that although three guys have held the seat since 1980-2022, none of them lost an election.
 
cville deac said:
Thanks for the responses. Sabato's site is calling the IN senate race a toss-up. EV.com hasn't updated their senate page yet. Here's what I don't get about IN. Trump will win IN in all likelihood. So if Bayh is going to win, he needs crossover votes. What Trump voter is going to cross over for 1 of the ultimate Washington establishment type insiders in Bayh? I mean, I get that in NH, there may well be a fair amount of crossover with folks voting Clinton and Ayotte. And maybe some Clinton and Rubio voters in FL or Clinton and Heck in NV. But in states like AZ and IN, I have a hard time seeing folks pull the lever for Trump and then Kirkpatrick or Bayh. Is it a cognitive dissonance kind of thing where a Trump voter at the same time thinks back to Bayh being an alright guy who brought home the bacon?
Click to expand...

Hillary haters.
 
Ball State Deac said:
Random note: this is Dan Quale's old seat, which he resigned in 1988 when he was elected VP. He had previously defeated Birch Bayh in 1980. Dan Coats was appointed to the seat in 88, and held it until he retired in 98. Bayh then won the seat and held until he retired in 2010. Coats then ran again and won, deciding to retire in 2016. Bayh will likely get it back in 2016.

This means that although three guys have held the seat since 1980-2022, none of them lost an election.
Click to expand...

Thanks, BSD. How did Cruz blowing the elaborate Hoosiers "ring" skit or getting heckled by 'necks play in IN? Next to the Little Marco nickname, two most hilarious moments in the entire GOP primary.
 
PhDeac said:
Hillary haters.
Click to expand...

Is it really that simple? I mean, I hate Hillary too and will probably vote Johnson if he's viable, but that's doubtful. But how is Hillary worse than Trump? And at least with Hillary, the trains will run on time, the economy will continue its slog back, and we'll have a middle of the road foreign policy (and have judicial appointments I like). With Trump, we'll have trade wars, the economy will likely turn south, he'll befriend dictators, and god knows what would happen with foreign policy. The new normal may not be as good as the old days, but it could be a whole lot worse. Like let's see what happens with the UK, er England, because the UK is about to go bye bye.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Thanks, BSD. How did Cruz blowing the elaborate Hoosiers "ring" skit or getting heckled by 'necks play in IN? Next to the Little Marco nickname, two most hilarious moments in the entire GOP primary.
Click to expand...

I'm in the 919 now... But Indiana is trump country.
 
cville deac said:
Is it really that simple? I mean, I hate Hillary too and will probably vote Johnson if he's viable, but that's doubtful. But how is Hillary worse than Trump? And at least with Hillary, the trains will run on time, the economy will continue its slog back, and we'll have a middle of the road foreign policy (and have judicial appointments I like). With Trump, we'll have trade wars, the economy will likely turn south, he'll befriend dictators, and god knows what would happen with foreign policy. The new normal may not be as good as the old days, but it could be a whole lot worse. Like let's see what happens with the UK, er England, because the UK is about to go bye bye.
Click to expand...

Money of the better posts I have seen lately.
 
cville deac said:
Is it really that simple? I mean, I hate Hillary too and will probably vote Johnson if he's viable, but that's doubtful. But how is Hillary worse than Trump? And at least with Hillary, the trains will run on time, the economy will continue its slog back, and we'll have a middle of the road foreign policy (and have judicial appointments I like). With Trump, we'll have trade wars, the economy will likely turn south, he'll befriend dictators, and god knows what would happen with foreign policy. The new normal may not be as good as the old days, but it could be a whole lot worse. Like let's see what happens with the UK, er England, because the UK is about to go bye bye.
Click to expand...

You're making sense. The people who would vote Bayh but then vote Trump over Hillary because they hate Hillary wouldn't be making much sense.
 
You have to keep in mind that Bayh was a very popular governor and appears to be moderate/conservative. People have voted for a Bayh many times while voting for a republican for the White House. And while I think trump will win Indiana with 5+ points to spare, I think Bayh will do better than trump in terms of total votes.
 
How conservative on a scale of 1-10 or vs other states is Indiana? I mean Obama won here in 2008 and I am sure saving auto jobs had something to do with it.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top