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2020 Senate Races

Doesn't your count end up with a 50-50 Senate split?

I think NC is likely to flip as well.

I don't know how Tillis can lose if Trump wins NC. Maybe you're counting on Biden winning NC. Biden has consistently led for months, but within the margin of error.
 
In 2016, I think Trump significantly outperformed the Republican Senate candidate in several states. Not NC but Burr was a strong incumbent than Tillis.

Just looking at Missouri, Trump got 1,594,511 votes (56.4%). Roy Blunt got 1,378,458 votes (49.2%).
 
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Yeah, but I think voter perception has changed in the past four years. At least hopefully. You can't still be somenoe who votes for Trump but decides to vote for a Democrat for senator instead of a douchey Republican, at least in NC. That's my take.
 
Yeah, but I think voter perception has changed in the past four years. At least hopefully. You can't still be somenoe who votes for Trump but decides to vote for a Democrat for senator instead of a douchey Republican, at least in NC. That's my take.

You can be someone who votes for Trump but doesn’t vote at all for Senate because you don’t think the incumbent supports Trump enough. Trump got 747K primary votes. Tillis only got 606K. And around 25K more people voted for Trump and than voted for Senate at all. Numbers like that could be the margin in a close race.

PACs need to run ads with that message to lower support for incumbents like Graham and Tillis. They could run ads in KY saying Trump has to use executive orders because Mitch isn’t doing his job to help Trump.



And you can be someone who votes for Trump because you don’t trust Biden but vote for a Democrat Senator to keep in check. Plus some people pride themselves on not being on one side or the other.
 
Yeah, but I think voter perception has changed in the past four years. At least hopefully. You can't still be somenoe who votes for Trump but decides to vote for a Democrat for senator instead of a douchey Republican, at least in NC. That's my take.

You may be right. There are still some pro-Trump/anti-Tillis sentiments who don't view Tillis as fully on board the Trump Train. Not that they would vote for Cunningham, but I can see some Trump voters sit out the senate race.
 
You can be someone who votes for Trump but doesn’t vote at all for Senate because you don’t think the incumbent supports Trump enough. Trump got 747K primary votes. Tillis only got 606K. And around 25K more people voted for Trump and than voted for Senate at all. Numbers like that could be the margin in a close race.

PACs need to run ads with that message to lower support for incumbents like Graham and Tillis. They could run ads in KY saying Trump has to use executive orders because Mitch isn’t doing his job to help Trump.



And you can be someone who votes for Trump because you don’t trust Biden but vote for a Democrat Senator to keep in check. Plus some people pride themselves on not being on one side or the other.


Thanks for explaing all that. Now I understand.

Tillis would suck Trump's dick on WRAL if he thought it would get him votes. Tillis is also closer to Cunningham in the polls than Trump is to Biden.
 
You may be right. There are still some pro-Trump/anti-Tillis sentiments who don't view Tillis as fully on board the Trump Train. Not that they would vote for Cunningham, but I can see some Trump voters sit out the senate race.

I can see someone walking into their polling place with no mask, voting for Trump, and walking out without filling out the rest of the ballot, especially without any anti-gay referendums on the ballot.
 
Democratic Senate Candidates Are Raking It In

Maybe the Democrats will retake the Senate this year, and maybe they won't. If they do come up short, however, it won't be for a lack of money, because Democratic candidates in close-fought races are collecting money hand over fist.
The real eye-opener is Jaime Harrison, who is trying to knock off Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC). Harrison used to run the state Democratic organ, and it would seem he learned a trick or two, as his haul for Q2 2020 was nearly $14 million, which is almost certain to leave Graham in the dust (the Senator hasn't reported yet). Similarly, Amy McGrath's $17.4 million will surely outpace her opponent, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), by a fair distance. Sara Gideon raised more than $9 million, a veritable fortune in Maine (and this excludes the $3 million being held for her when the nomination is official). Steve Bullock took in $7.7 million, which will go far in a state where prime advertising spots can be had for as little as $100. Cal Cunningham collected $7.4 million for his race in North Carolina, and Jon Ossoff brought in $3.5 million for his race in Georgia. Those figures are not quite as impressive, especially since North Carolina and Georgia (especially North Carolina) are not cheap places to wage a campaign. However, those two have only recently locked up their respective nominations, so they will presumably improve in Q3. Plus, the DSCC is going to lavish money upon them.
Because the Democrats' fundraising is going so much better, they've been able to substantially outspend the Republicans on TV advertising this cycle, $109 million to $79 million. That is due, in part, to the fact that the blue team had a larger number of competitive primaries. However, that money had to come from somewhere and, based on the figures above, it looks like the spigot is still open. If so, it's going to be very hard for the red team to catch up. .
It'll be hilarious if Lindsey goes down.

He is such a little prick and it would be great if my home state had (2) black senators. This is what you should get for hugging trump so tight.
 
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Latest SC Senate Poll:

Jaime Harrison 44% Lindsey Graham 44% Jul 30-Aug 03 Quinnipiac U.

Be hilarious if Graham were to go down and SC would then have 2 black senators. Who'd have thunk that possible?
 
[h=1]A Democratic Senate Candidate Wrote A Book Filled With Racist Tropes[/h] The president of the Georgia NAACP called the novel disturbing, and said Matt Lieberman should drop out of the contest.



https://www.huffpost.com/entry/a-de...with-racist-tropes_n_5f2cd06ac5b6e96a22b03e3e

Lieberman told HuffPost he wrote the book, titled “Lucius” after the name of the imaginary slave, in the wake of the 2017 white nationalist violence in Charlottesville, Virginia, as “an honest examination of enduring racism against Blacks — which is real, harmful and totally infuriating.”



The main character, an elderly white southern man named Benno, regularly deploys the N-word and says some members of the Ku Klux Klan were “basically good people.” The 213-page novel, in which the racist main character tells the story of his life to a narrator with a biography similar to Lieberman’s, ultimately suggests Lucius functioned as a sort of pet for Benno.

“I know my approach to this delicate subject is not palatable for every reader,” Lieberman wrote in a statement. “I expected some readers to react with disgust.”

On that front, Lieberman was right. James Woodall, the president of the state NAACP chapter, told HuffPost in a phone interview the book contained “racist tropes.” He said Lieberman should drop out of the Senate race.

“In my personal opinion, this would just exacerbate a tough time for us as a state. He should drop out of the race,” Woodall said. “If he wants to be an author or a writer, he should just do that.”

If Lieberman drops out, it's more likely a Democrat, Rev. Warnock, makes the run off. If he doesn't, it's likely Loeffler and Collins are an all-GOP runoff.
 
Cal Cunningham caught sexting a woman this weekend who is not his wife. There is info out there that he may have been entrapped by a pretty hot looking republican operative, but still. You are polling ahead of Tillis who is a complete boob but now you get caught doing this. Will it hurt him, who knows? Its not like he was banging her behind his wife's back but still not a good look.

Also Pat Toomey (R) Pennsylvania announces retirement when his term ends in 2022.
 
Here is the latest 538 analysis on the Senate races: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/

They forecast a 65% chance that the Dems win control.

They also currently forecast Cunningham as having a 65% chance of winning, but that is before whatever the reaction is to the sexting issue. FWIW, they forecast a 79% chance of a Lindsey Graham win in SC.
 
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Cal Cunningham caught sexting a woman this weekend who is not his wife. There is info out there that he may have been entrapped by a pretty hot looking republican operative, but still. You are polling ahead of Tillis who is a complete boob but now you get caught doing this. Will it hurt him, who knows? Its not like he was banging her behind his wife's back but still not a good look.

Also Pat Toomey (R) Pennsylvania announces retirement when his term ends in 2022.

My take, with the serial rapist and Misogenist we have in the White House This is not a great sin, he owned up to it but it may make enough difference that Gillis gets help. You can hope that the wavering Cunningham supporter will be like many trump voters in 2016 and hold there nose and vote for the least disliked candidate.
 
I’m no expert when it comes to NC politics, but I think this year of all years this “sexting scandal” will have as little impact as possible. I think most people are pretty locked in to what they want to do and there’s very little that will change their mind at this point. In addition, I think our country has come a long way from looking down on our elected officials cheating on their spouses as a disqualifying event.
 
the votes probably fall closely along the lines of whether or not you call that "sexting" or not
 
I’m no expert when it comes to NC politics, but I think this year of all years this “sexting scandal” will have as little impact as possible. I think most people are pretty locked in to what they want to do and there’s very little that will change their mind at this point. In addition, I think our country has come a long way from looking down on our elected officials cheating on their spouses as a disqualifying event.

Yes, our country elected its last President behind a wave of Evangelical Christian support, after he banged a porn actress while his wife was pregnant and a centerfold, among others, and is on tape bragging about molesting women. So, at this point sexting has become passe' as having a decisive impact on an election.
 
"Cal Cunningham married father of two admits to affair with wife of veteran" is how the Republican party is portraying this per the texts my wife and I both received.

I think politics is so us vs them now that this won't have too much effect. It takes a truly great (or awful) candidate to really swing the vote. And even that is more getting people out to vote that otherwise may not bother.
 
Morals no longer matter , so cal Cunningham will be fine. Unless , conservatives are actually , gasp, hypocrites and try to make a big deal out of it. But I’m sure they wouldn’t do that.
 
"Cal Cunningham married father of two admits to affair with wife of veteran" is how the Republican party is portraying this per the texts my wife and I both received.

I think politics is so us vs them now that this won't have too much effect. It takes a truly great (or awful) candidate to really swing the vote. And even that is more getting people out to vote that otherwise may not bother.

So disingenuous.
 
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