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2020 Senate Races

DeacWatcher

Ricky Peral
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I was going to wait a while before we got into this but Scalia's death moves it to the spotlight now. Certain Pubs could get primaryed if they were to say they were in favor of someone Obama nominated for SCOTUS.

The Dems are defending 10 seats this election and the only 2 possible pickups for the Pubs are CO & NV. Michael Bennett is up for a 2nd term in CO and is a huge fundraiser for Dems so he is probably safer than newcomer Catherine Masto who is seeking to replace Harry Reid in NV. NV represents the best possible pickup for the Pubs but if Latino turnout is high on election day it may not matter.

The Pubs are defending 24 seats but many are safe in very conservative states. Obviously IL (Kirk), WI (Johnson), FL (Rubio), & NH (Ayotte) are the most vulnerable and all but Ayotte will probably fall to the Dems. Ayotte is tangled up with 3 term governor Maggie Hassan in a race that will be tight all the way to election night. Portman in OH could be vulnerable if former Governor Ted Strickland gets his act together, no one really on either side has declared to run in Louisiana, & Blunt could be vulnerable in Mizzou along with Boozman in Arkansas if the cards really fell right for the Dems as they did for the Pubs in 2014.

It'll be interesting to watch as control is on the line and the Dems should get at least 3 pickups and maybe more depending on turnout.
 
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Rubio isn't running. Alan Grayson is a loose cannon, so good chance for the GOP to hold FL. Don't understand why the GOP is so adament about not taking any action on any Obama nominees. Cruz or Rubio could filibuster and it would be all over. No need to put Ayotte, Portman, Kirk, or Johnson into unfavorable position in tough states for 'Pubs.
 
Patrick Murphy is running against Grayson. He's not great but he's much better than Grayson. The Dem bench in FL is painfully short.
 
Rubio isn't running. Alan Grayson is a loose cannon, so good chance for the GOP to hold FL. Don't understand why the GOP is so adament about not taking any action on any Obama nominees. Cruz or Rubio could filibuster and it would be all over. No need to put Ayotte, Portman, Kirk, or Johnson into unfavorable position in tough states for 'Pubs.

Grayson is a loose cannon, but I think there's a great chance that Patrick Murphy is the Dem nominee from Florida. Especially if it's Murphy, I think the Dem nominee currently has a big advantage in a presidential election year in Florida. Scott is still the governor because of low Dem turnout in South(east) Florida during a mid-term election, which will clearly not be nearly as low in a presidential election year.
 
Bennett will hold CO, not because he's a great candidate, but because the Pubs couldn't muster a decent challenger. NV is a toss up at this point. The top of the ticket could have a powerful effect in NV.

WI and IL are most likely switching. FL is a toss up at present, though I think could slightly lean Murphy if he beats Grayson. Look for a lot of national $$ in the primary to aid Murphy. I think you overrate Hassan a bit. Maybe she's a slight favorite, but I think the top of the ticket could also have a big effect in both NH and FL. PA is the disappointing state from a Dem perspective. It's a blue state (though I get that it's AL in the middle), but they seem to be having the same problem finding a good challenger to Toomey that the Pubs have in CO. So I'd keep that in the Pub column for now. Assuming Strickland wins the OH primary, OH goes into the toss up category, and the polls I've seen actually show Strickland with a small lead. NC isn't worth the Dems spending national $$ on. And surprising as it may sound, Watcher is right that AR, MO and LA could be in play under the right circumstances because Boozman and Blunt are vulnerable.

Aside from the WI and IL races, the top of the ticket could have a yuge effect on the rest of the races. I could envision multiple scenarios where most of the rest of the candidates on both sides won't want to be seen in the same picture with their presidential nominees.
 
Murphy is going to get national money because Grayson may as well be the Dem version of Cruz. Nobody in the establishment wants him to have a bigger stage.
 
Murphy is going to get national money because Grayson may as well be the Dem version of Cruz. Nobody in the establishment wants him to have a bigger stage.

Yup. That and he's a far weaker candidate in the general than Murphy.
 
Let's see what's going on in Pat Toomey's mentions:

Let's see what's going on in Pat Toomey's mentions:


Lulz.
 
In addition to Florida, there are also establishment/insurgent primary battles in IN (GOP) and PA (Dems). Both should be GOP holds, but a Tea Party wingnut nominee in IN could be a general election problem for the 'Pubs.
 
In addition to Florida, there are also establishment/insurgent primary battles in IN (GOP) and PA (Dems). Both should be GOP holds, but a Tea Party wingnut nominee in IN could be a general election problem for the 'Pubs.

That's the only way the IN race could get close. If the tea bagger does win the primary in IN, the media needs to start asking him a lot of rape questions. Or if it's a female, witch questions.
 
Obama held interviews with news stations in AZ, MO, IA, WI, OH, and NH yesterday about the GOP refusal to hold hearings on Garland. Kirk's already called for hearings, but he's still vulnerable. Add in FL, PA, and NC. All of those states will be heavily contested. Only need to flip five and have multiple paths. Reminds me of Obama's multiple paths to 270 in 2012.
 
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Hillary vs. Trump should give the Senate to the Dems. It would take a total disaster for the GOP to lose the House which is not likely at all.
 
Toomey - or at least his super PAC(s) - has already started running attack ads against McGinty and the election is six months away. Gonna be a long summer.
 
Obama held interviews with news stations in AZ, MO, IA, WI, OH, and NH yesterday about the GOP refusal to hold hearings on Garland. Kirk's already called for hearings, but he's still vulnerable. Add in FL, PA, and NC. All of those states will be heavily contested. Only need to flip five and have multiple paths. Reminds me of Obama's multiple paths to 270 in 2012.

Kirk and Johnson are done. If Murphy is the nominee in FL, I'd give the Dems slight advantages in FL and NV. So if that holds, you're at 49. NH & OH are toss-ups. Pubs have the edge now in PA, MO, AR and AZ. I still think Trump actually helps Toomey in PA, at least a lot more so than Cruz would and doesn't hurt in MO, AR & OH. The state where he's the biggest hindrance is AZ.
 
Saw the first ads for Ayotte last night. It will definitely be a long summer and this election isn't even for the state I live in (although I do have an admittedly biased and vested interest in the outcome).
 
Kirk and Johnson are done. If Murphy is the nominee in FL, I'd give the Dems slight advantages in FL and NV. So if that holds, you're at 49. NH & OH are toss-ups. Pubs have the edge now in PA, MO, AR and AZ. I still think Trump actually helps Toomey in PA, at least a lot more so than Cruz would and doesn't hurt in MO, AR & OH. The state where he's the biggest hindrance is AZ.

Current GOP is dead. Whatever's left will have to figure out how Obama got re-elected post Obamacare, how they ended up with Trump & Cruz as their final two, how they lost the Senate, and how someone as hated as HRC became POTUS. Not a lot of easy explanations.
 
Because of McCrory's actions, the Dems will be out in force on election day in NC and that could be the end of Burr. Not that close right now, but Ross could tighten things up as money comes in from out of state.
 
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