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General Election Thread: Two Weeks Out

Junebug said:
What a ludicrous title and article. I see no indication Trump was accusing Obama of being a Manchurian president.

The Atlantic should (rightly) pillory Trump for what he actually says, not try to find innuendo when one isn't there.
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Trump JCD at its best.
 
BobStackFan4Life said:
Holy shit, Trump just revoked the press credentials for the Washington Post:

Donald J. Trump
Based on the incredibly inaccurate coverage and reporting of the record setting Trump campaign, we are hereby revoking the press credentials of the phony and dishonest Washington Post.
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Dish it out to a guy who can't respond for a week but can't take it when he gets called out. A guy who hides his insecurities behind the mask of an abuser
 
Utah's Salt Lake Tribune is now calling the race between HRC & Trump a dead heat a 35% each with Gary Johnson drawing 13%. If it were Sanders, he's actually leading. I am just not sure how Trump and his supporters plan to overcome GOP dislike of him. I have not seen any polls lately out of AZ, but I expect the situation is similar there especially since there is a very competitive Senate race at hand. As mentioned in other posts, GOP math out west is brutal.

http://www.sltrib.com/news/3993058-155/poll-trumps-unpopularity-could-swing-utahns
 
DeacWatcher said:
Utah's Salt Lake Tribune is now calling the race between HRC & Trump a dead heat a 35% each with Gary Johnson drawing 13%. If it were Sanders, he's actually leading. I am just not sure how Trump and his supporters plan to overcome GOP dislike of him. I have not seen any polls lately out of AZ, but I expect the situation is similar there especially since there is a very competitive Senate race at hand. As mentioned in other posts, GOP math out west is brutal.

http://www.sltrib.com/news/3993058-155/poll-trumps-unpopularity-could-swing-utahns
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This is stunning but given Mitt despises Trump and Mormons worship Mitt, guess it should not be entirely surprising. Just don't see anyway Trump loses Utah and I don't think it's indicative of other red states.
 
Bob, you've stopped posting polls recently, why is that?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Survey Monkey poll:

Hillary-42
Trump-38
Johnson-9
Stein-5

5% nationally seems high for Stein, but still unlikely enough to cost HRC any blue states. Stein gets hurt if Warren, Brown, and Bernie strongly support Hillary. Bernie's the lone holdout. Stein won't be anywhere close to 5% in swing states.

Johnson's number seems about right and likely has an effect in swing states (NM, CO, NV, IA, NH). Could create some unexpected surprises in AZ, IN, and MO. GA and UT are likely a bridge too far. Even if Trump sweeps all those states, would still have to spend resources in states that should be slam dunks for the GOP.

If those numbers remain stable, Dems will make big pushes in AZ (coming attractions, McCain) and MO (relatively weak GOP Senator). GOP's fucked in the West, and purple MO and/or IN make a bad EC map worse.

1992:

Bubba-43% (370 EVs)
Bush-37% (168 EVs)
Perot-19%
 
Given that you can sign up and participate, how scientific is Survey Monkey?

EDIT: Head-to-head 49-42 HRC

I still find SM not as credible as others.
 
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RJKarl said:
Given that you can sign up and participate, how scientific is Survey Monkey?
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I don't know how scientific Survey Monkey is, I don't know where he comes from, but all I know is my bathroom has never been cleaner.
 
No matter what happens the popular vote in this election could be very close, but the EC vote is likely to be a blowout especially if AZ & MO go blue (no chance of this happening in IN although Obama did surprise here in 2008).

I agree with Rube that despite what polls say, UT & GA are probably unattainable for blue team this time around but this is only the beginning. Latino vote will only continue to increase but will only move certain states like out west. Very red states (ie. TX, MS, AL, OK, AR, LA, KY, TN & plains states) will continue to stay pretty red through whatever means necessary. Latinos have been out west for so long they are pretty much accepted, but not in states above.
 
DeacWatcher said:
No matter what happens the popular vote in this election could be very close, but the EC vote is likely to be a blowout especially if AZ & MO go blue (no chance of this happening in IN although Obama did surprise here in 2008).
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2008 & 2012 are the most recent elections, so it's easy to compare those to 2016, but 1968 & 1992 may be better comparisons. Both had third party candidates who got low double digit popular votes. Lots of unrest in 1968. Doubt that Johnson or Stein win any states (Wallace: 14%, 5 states, 46 EVs in 1968), but may combine for low double digits.

Long way to go, but could see 3-5% margin in the popular vote with Hillary getting around 350 EVs. Not a blowout, but hardly close in the EC either.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Survey Monkey poll:

Hillary-42
Trump-38
Johnson-9
Stein-5

5% nationally seems high for Stein, but still unlikely enough to cost HRC any blue states. Stein gets hurt if Warren, Brown, and Bernie strongly support Hillary. Bernie's the lone holdout. Stein won't be anywhere close to 5% in swing states.

Johnson's number seems about right and likely has an effect in swing states (NM, CO, NV, IA, NH). Could create some unexpected surprises in AZ, IN, and MO. GA and UT are likely a bridge too far. Even if Trump sweeps all those states, would still have to spend resources in states that should be slam dunks for the GOP.

If those numbers remain stable, Dems will make big pushes in AZ (coming attractions, McCain) and MO (relatively weak GOP Senator). GOP's fucked in the West, and purple MO and/or IN make a bad EC map worse.

1992:

Bubba-43% (370 EVs)
Bush-37% (168 EVs)
Perot-19%
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Agree that 5% seems unusually high for Stein. But do you think Johnson could end up taking UT given how much Mittens and the Mor(m)ons hate Drumpf and he them given some of his past comments? Agree Johnson could have an effect on NM, NV, CO & NH, though not as much IA. But my guess is that he hurts Drumpf in NH. As to the 3 western states and UT, who does he hurt worse? I can see it cutting both ways if he's getting double digits out there.
 
Johnson could have a chance if Mitt dedicated his time and money to stumping for Johnson only in Utah.
 
DeacWatcher said:
No matter what happens the popular vote in this election could be very close, but the EC vote is likely to be a blowout especially if AZ & MO go blue (no chance of this happening in IN although Obama did surprise here in 2008).

I agree with Rube that despite what polls say, UT & GA are probably unattainable for blue team this time around but this is only the beginning. Latino vote will only continue to increase but will only move certain states like out west. Very red states (ie. TX, MS, AL, OK, AR, LA, KY, TN & plains states) will continue to stay pretty red through whatever means necessary. Latinos have been out west for so long they are pretty much accepted, but not in states above.
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Of the very red states, only TX is big.

I'll be very, very surprised if Hillary doesn't get nearly 320 EVs...and if Trump keeps going Trump, that number could be higher.
 
RJKarl said:
Of the very red states, only TX is big.

I'll be very, very surprised if Hillary doesn't get nearly 320 EVs...and if Trump keeps going Trump, that number could be higher.
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I had a feeling you'd be around after I mentioned TX not going blue anytime soon. Lots of Latinos but way too much fierce opposition to upholding "Texas values". TX is the one state I can't see flipping anytime soon. They will restrict minority voting, intimidate, and basically do whatever is necessary to continue their way of life. Austin is the only remotely blue city in the state and I can't see that changing in the near future. There is a reason this state loves the death penalty.
 
DeacWatcher said:
No matter what happens the popular vote in this election could be very close, but the EC vote is likely to be a blowout especially if AZ & MO go blue (no chance of this happening in IN although Obama did surprise here in 2008).
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Seriously? That would be shocking - I don't see anyway of that happening.
 
DeacWatcher said:
I had a feeling you'd be around after I mentioned TX not going blue anytime soon. Lots of Latinos but way too much fierce opposition to upholding "Texas values". TX is the one state I can't see flipping anytime soon. They will restrict minority voting, intimidate, and basically do whatever is necessary to continue their way of life. Austin is the only remotely blue city in the state and I can't see that changing in the near future. There is a reason this state loves the death penalty.
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According to their census department, TX will have a Latino plurality in 2020. In 2024, the GOP better not run another Trump.
 
RJKarl said:
According to their census department, TX will have a Latino plurality in 2020. In 2024, the GOP better not run another Trump.
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It won't matter how much of a plurality they have, it won't go blue. The red team will put enough in jail to limit the vote (just joking, but maybe).

What other state is more loyal and intense about itself than Texas? None and its not like its close.
 
cville deac said:
Agree that 5% seems unusually high for Stein. But do you think Johnson could end up taking UT given how much Mittens and the Mor(m)ons hate Drumpf and he them given some of his past comments? Agree Johnson could have an effect on NM, NV, CO & NH, though not as much IA. But my guess is that he hurts Drumpf in NH. As to the 3 western states and UT, who does he hurt worse? I can see it cutting both ways if he's getting double digits out there.
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Mormons are socially conservative so they don't like Trump, but people underestimate how much they despise Trump's religious bigotry. Utah was hardly Mormons' first choice and they were run out of five states. Westerners also don't have fond memories of the the Japanese-American WWII internment. At least one camp was in Utah. Also camps in AZ & CO. Muslim ban doesn't work for them. Only Huckabee would have been a worse GOP choice than Trump among Mormons. Jeff Flake, Dean Heller, and Mike Lee are all Mormon GOP Senators who have no problems openly giving Trump shit.

Johnson takes more from Trump than HRC in the West. Difference in NM, CO, and NV will be Latinos & Mormons. Same combo hurts Trump in AZ and Utah.
 
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